After a series of accidents, China is developing a replacement for the J-15

China has been having a lot of problems with its J-15 carrier based fighters. Until recently, the Chinese have stated there were only two accidents with the J-15, one of which was fatal and a second of which was bad enough it took significant time for the pilot to recover. However, the Chinese just acknowledged there were actually two more accidents and one of those was fatal. The two fatal accidents were related to the flight control systems and mechanical failures are apparently somewhat common. Apparently, enough is enough and the Chinese are out to replace the aircraft.

Lieutenant General Zhang Honghe of the PLAAF (1) came out to state the Chinese are now developing a replacement. What it will be, remains to be seen, but the Chinese are NOT noted for making proclamations about vaporware development programs. In fact, they almost always announce them relatively shortly before the unveiling of an aircraft, though it could be still two or more years before we see it.

One Chinese naval expert has stated the replacement aircraft may end up being based on the J-31/FC-31 fighter. That aircraft was not developed with government backing, but there was a mockup spotted on one of China's 'land carriers,' buildings laid out in the same manner as the carriers to make sure they have clearances, conduct tests and what have you. While this is a possibility and even a higher a likelihood than some of our crazier ideas around here, I'd caution against assuming this is the case. Had China wanted to, it would have moved the J-31/FC-31 along faster then. The J-20 has, after all, been inducted into service, while the J-31 has barely built its second prototype.

Another possibility is the Chinese may finally come out of the dark with their VSTOL aircraft. I, personally, don't think this is likely to be the case, but its a possibility. A Rolls Royce engineer was arrested(2) for attempting to sell engine data for the F-35 to those he thought were Chinese spies, so it stands to reason the Chinese really want the capability the F-35B (or an equivalent) represents. After all, they are building their own version of the Wasp and America class LHDs(3). A VSTOL would be useful off those and the CV01/CV01A classes of carriers. On the other hand, its not necessary for the newer CV02 since it will have a set of catapults.

I think it remains to be seen as to what we the Chinese will develop. It will at least match the range and payloads of the J-15, if not significantly improve upon them. However, for those of us here on ATS, we have been alerted to a new aircraft project to watch for.

www.scmp.com...

1. Author Note: Why PLAAF? Why not PLAN? Are the pilots on the carriers all PLAAF?
2. www.ft.com...
3. en.wikipedia.org... .
www.defensenews.com...
it should be noted the Type 075 are the same displacement as the America class LHA.

Thats what happens when you steal fake data.

a reply to: SR1TX

And exactly what fake data did they steal for the J-15?

a reply to: anzha

I think the Chinese will use a larger variant of the J-F17 on their carriers.

Hi Guys and Girls,

If anything a new build of the J15 with better engines, the JF17 as a single engine I doubt the Chinese would be happy with it.

I believe the J15 is a licence built very of the SU27 so an updated interim until the JF31 is ready maybe the way forward.

Kind regards

Rich

a reply to: tadaman

It would take an equal amount of work to convert either the J-20 or the J-31 to a carrier aircraft as it would the JF-17. Why would they go back to a 3rd gen aircraft when they have at least two 5th gen to pick from?

More than likely though, the J-15 will be a new aircraft and will be a 5th gen.

When I read that they were using these craft on a carrier. I said to myself. I wonder if they won't have any problems using them at sea. And it looks like they did.

I also wondered why they didn't create a new carrier based aircraft from the ground up.

I guess they will now.

a reply to: anzha

They probably have several variants already far along that were sidelined. An updated hodgepodge that can do the job for cheap is their way.

They could get lots of simple aircraft with generalized capabilities as a backdrop to a few cutting edge aircraft buzzing around in the mess.

Just a thought.

a reply to: anzha

I wouldn't be surprised to see the J-31 suddenly show up in their inventory. There's long been speculation that it could fairly easily be altered for carrier ops. It's already got a pretty robust gear for rough field work.

a reply to: Zaphod58

I'd speculate a new airframe is a touch more likely, but only by a bit. If they go with an existing airframe, I think you're right about the J-31.

Either way, the Chinese rarely talk about this stuff unless they have something coming out of the Sino version of 'the black.'

a reply to: anzha

It'll depend on if they're already developing it or not. The J-31 would be a good interim airframe. It gives them something until the new airframe is ready for actual deployment.

a reply to: Zaphod58

While I see where you are coming from, I suspect an either/or. Either they have a new airframe close to being unveiled or they will go with the J-31.

a reply to: anzha

It all boils down to how many problems they're seeing with the J-15 and how fast they want to get their carrier air arm up and going. Even China is looking at 10+ years to get a new airframe up and going. If they're willing to put up with the issues that long, we'll see a new airframe. If they aren't, they'll need something.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Agreed. However, I may be conveying what I am saying badly. They might have already started something (say 4, 5 years into it) and are now about to unveil. It'd still be 5 years, but the J-31 would be, too.

a reply to: anzha

No, I caught that. But even if they're 4 or 5 years in, that's still a ways to go with "live" testing that the J-31 has already seen. So, again, it all comes down to if they can live with the current issues.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Is Russia helping China make a VSTOL fighter?

nationalinterest.org...

National Interest, so take with a grain of salt.

a reply to: anzha

So basically the Chinese developed a carrier aircraft that can't land on aircraft carriers. Nice

For all the hullabaloo about the problems with the J-15, China is soldiering on. They just declared the J-15 capable of night ops on a carrier.

www.janes.com...