More fake protesting of the immigration issue? Ugh..

a reply to: Gryphon66

For months I've been doing exotic teeth grinding calculations, and 106,000 is the precise number of "migrants" per year for the cartels to have their smokescreen / couriers to supply the nation with dope while blowing up Latin America.

originally posted by: IgnoranceIsntBlisss
a reply to: Gryphon66

For months I've been doing exotic teeth grinding calculations, and 106,000 is the precise number of "migrants" per year for the cartels to have their smokescreen / couriers to supply the nation with dope while blowing up Latin America.

LOL.

You need to pass this along to DHS and probably DEA.

a reply to: Gryphon66

They wouldn't issue me a cape so I told them to eat snip. So then they axed me what "snip" is and I told them nice try like everyone doesnt read ATS.

originally posted by: Gryphon66

originally posted by: face23785

originally posted by: Gryphon66
a reply to: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

From September 2017:

Efforts by DHS to Estimate Southwest Border Security between Ports of Entry

With respect to border enforcement outputs, available data indicate that the southwest land border is more difficult to illegally cross today than ever before. First, survey data, mathematical models, and USBP assessments suggest that a growing share of attempting crossers between POEs are apprehended or interdicted: 55 to 85 percent today (depending on the specific estimate), versus 35 to 70 percent a decade ago. Second, administrative and survey data suggest that a much higher share of unlawful immigrants are deterred from making a subsequent attempt after being repatriated: about 55 to 75 percent today versus 10 to 40 percent a decade or two ago. Third, survey data and USBP assessments indicate that alm

Also

With respect to border enforcement outcomes, available data also indicate the lowest number of illegal entries at least since 2000, and likely since the early 1970s. First, the U.S. Border Patrol made 408,000 southwest border apprehensions in 2016, the fourth-lowest number since 1972, and a 75 percent drop from 1.6 million apprehensions in 2000. The drop in apprehensions likely understates the drop in illegal entries given the apparent increase in the apprehension rate. Second, USBP’s observation-based estimate of known got aways fell 83 percent between 2006 and 2016, from 615,000 to 106,000, in spite of improved detection capacity. Third, the IDA Corporation estimates that successful illegal entries fell 91 percent between 2000 and 2016 (from 1.8 million to 170,000), though DHS is still working to validate and refine IDA’s methodology

From September 2017. Part of the big story is there's been a huge uptick in illegal entries and asylum claims (most of which are false, but we won't get into that) in the past few months. The assessment from September 2017 is old.

LOL, old huh? If you'd bothered to examine even the material I quoted, you'd see that this "old" report talks about long-term trends in which we see a reduction of all manner of illegal crossing attempts over more than a decade.

Whatever "uptick" has happened doesn't affect those long-term trends beyond a minor "bump" and that's just basic math.

I did read the material you quoted, that doesn't change the fact that the past isn't the present. It may not bring the 10-year average up much, but we've seen a big influx that's causing the current issues that were dominating the news until Kennedy announced he was going to retire. Imagine if Trump's answer to "keep families together" was "well, over the past 10 years the average number of kids that have been separated has barely increased".

a reply to: Gryphon66

The issue is that even with the average number of illegal immigrants, the immigration system could barely manage to apprehend and deport a small fraction of them. With the sudden uptick, the system is completely overwhelmed.

This immigration mess is certainly not Trump's doings... it is the fault of an unresponsive, bickering Congress more interested in scoring political points than actually addressing the issues, going back decades. It has been exasperated by the administrations that have gone before, yes, and is being exasperated by this one, but in a completely different way. Previous administrations used their abilities to try and operate, even if poorly, under the mess Congress gave them to work with. This administration is doing things differently; they are upholding the law and showing the entire country what a mess has been made.

And of course, that is upsetting those in Congress who actually bear responsibility to no end. Hence the MSM coverage and faux outrage.

TheRedneck

a reply to: face23785

Yes, the far distant past of 10 months ago ... LOL.

Whatever bud.

a reply to: TheRedneck

That's not what the numbers say though Redneck. The OVERALL increase was only 1.9% in the most recent numbers (May 2018, for current event buffs).

The "uptick" is in the number of families and unaccompanied children which did jump by a large precentage month to month beginning in March 2018.

Notably that also accounts for the current crisis with the family separations and kids alone in camps.

Immigration issues are not President Trump's fault indeed. Blame lies squarely on Congress.

May 2018 - US Customs and Border Protection

originally posted by: Gryphon66
a reply to: face23785

Yes, the far distant past of 10 months ago ... LOL.

Whatever bud.

It's not just the matter that it's the past, it's that you're talking about long-term trends like that negates the fact that trend has reversed this year. How long do you just say "oh, the long-term trends are still good" while the problem grows? That's not good management policy.

ETA: Also, just so everyone knows, I've got #ing pizza.

originally posted by: Isurrender73
a reply to: Gryphon66

It is pointless to debate someone who has no interest in the facts.

Articles from the DHS and Border patrol have been posted on ATS that refute everything you say.

72% of Americans believe the MSM intentionally report false and misleading news.

I'm not sure what it feels like to be part of the 28% but the motto here is deny ignorance. And your opinions have been denied. The future will not be kind to those who refuse to see the truth now.

This is funny as # because if you had actually 'denied ignorance' and looked at the source of the 72% claim, you would have seen that it was in fact a lie.


Oh man, this is rich.

a reply to: Gryphon66

Then Congress should change the law.

originally posted by: Gryphon66

The "uptick" is in the number of families and unaccompanied children which did jump by a large precentage month to month beginning in March 2018.

According to NPR radio, that was because word spread across Latin America that if they had a kid with them they'd only get "Catch & Release".

Same month BuzzFeed etc was ramping up their organized Caravan efforts.

Hmm. I wonder how word spread like wildfire to bring their kid along thru the desert hrmmm let see...

a reply to: Gryphon66

1.9%, with the added factor of actually enforcing the border laws, can be quite a leap in actual numbers of people processed. That 2-year wait figure I have been hearing (and repeating) did not start in April... it has been building slowly for some time. Any sudden increase is just going to make matters worse.

And admittedly, it was only a matter of time before this happened even without a surge. The system simply could not, cannot keep up. Something has to give, and yes, everything is falling right in the lap of.... CONGRESS.

We don't just need more Republicans this November... we need more Statesmen and less career politicians.

TheRedneck

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: Gryphon66

1.9%, with the added factor of actually enforcing the border laws, can be quite a leap in actual numbers of people processed. That 2-year wait figure I have been hearing (and repeating) did not start in April... it has been building slowly for some time. Any sudden increase is just going to make matters worse.

And admittedly, it was only a matter of time before this happened even without a surge. The system simply could not, cannot keep up. Something has to give, and yes, everything is falling right in the lap of.... CONGRESS.

We don't just need more Republicans this November... we need more Statesmen and less career politicians.

TheRedneck

Truth. Unfortunately I don't think we're going to get them.

a reply to: TheRedneck

Oh good lord. The border laws are being enforced as they've been enforced for years. The primary change instituted by the Trump Administration was zero-tolerance which meant that all offenders were sent to jail not a detention center pending proper court procedures whereas previously those that were considered low risk would be released into the community pending their court date WHICH the majority attended (75%) which, surprise surprise reduced the current ridiculous load on the detention facilities. Yes, that means that 25% didn't attend which is troubling if we don't remember that these folks that were released were not prior offenders, had no criminal records, etc. I would also argue that most of those folks were apprehended anyway in time.

Sorry, 1.9 percent is not a huge overwhelming jump overall, particularly given the long-term trends are what they are.

Yes, I do agree that Congress needs to act, but that action should not be held hostage to funding for the Wall, in my opinion.

originally posted by: Gryphon66

originally posted by: notsure1

originally posted by: Gryphon66
a reply to: notsure1

Not playing fetch today; Google is your friend though.

Yeah because its complete BS. Remember that picture of the kids in a cage under OBama?

Where were their parents because they sure were not in there with those kids..

One person tweeted a photograph from the Obama Administration, yes.

I noted above that there was a massive increase in family separations in April; I did not say there were none before that.

So a little is okay but not a lot?

Why weren’t you protesting this issue years ago?

a reply to: Gryphon66

But no law was changed. It was merely fully enforced. Why have laws if there are no repercussions?

originally posted by: Gryphon66
Before the middle of April 2018, the number of families split up at our border in the course of enforcing our laws was a fraction of what it is now.

The Trump Administration changed the policy of enforcement in 2018.

Folks are exercising their American right to assemble and speak because they do not support these changes made in their name.

Why did you fail to even mention the part of his comment about this kind of thing has been happening to American families and the fact that illegal immigrants know they are breaking the law and therefore are criminals? You didn't say a thing about that part, you just had to point out the one thing about the separation numbers having gone up? Acknowledge the fact that there are crimes being committed! That is the most important thing in this whole debacle! But certain people like you of a different political slant refuse to acknowledge the real problem. IT's time the real problem was addressed!

a reply to: Gryphon66

There is little difference between "jail" and "detention"... detention is just a low-security "jail."

I don't know where you got the 25% figure, because I am reading how as many as 85% never showed back up for their hearings.

TheRedneck

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: Gryphon66

There is little difference between "jail" and "detention"... detention is just a low-security "jail."

I don't know where you got the 25% figure, because I am reading how as many as 85% never showed back up for their hearings.

TheRedneck

25% is about the figure that don't show up for their initial hearing, and of course the only number the media tends to report because it doesn't sound that bad (sounds plenty bad to me). However, once you include no-shows for subsequent court dates, once they get a little further along in the process and it becomes clear they're going to be deported, the no-show rate goes up drastically, and I think that's where the 85% number comes into play.

a reply to: face23785

OK, that makes a little more sense. It also makes it more troubling, though... who skips out on their initial hearing? Would that be the criminal segment who never planned on actually getting asylum in the first place?

To my way of thinking, the higher number would still be the accurate one, because the whole point is to keep illegal immigrants out.

TheRedneck