Syrian Civil War update -- is Jordan now out of it?

Link to my favorite site for following the Syrian Civil War:
syria.liveuamap.com...

Starting this week, the Syrian government (Assad regime) began an offensive in southern Syria, near the border with Jordan. So far, the rebels in that region seem to be giving up with hardly any fight. This is especially surprising because they were a pretty tough nut to crack earlier in the war.

Personally, I wonder if Syria and Jordan have come to terms behind the scenes, and Jordan has agreed to stop supporting rebels groups. If so, we can expect to see that US-held base at al-Tanf become increasingly untenable in the future.

I imagine Israel is having a panic attack over this. Expect another pointless salvo of missiles directed at the Damascus airport sometime in the next few days.

a reply to: AndyFromMichigan

I didn't think Jordan was engaged against Assad's forces. I thought they were helping coalition forces against ISIS targets in the ISIS held region of Syria.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I seriously doubt the King of Jordan who's actually a pretty cool and intelligent guy would consider starting a war with Syria.

Israel fears nothing.

originally posted by: TonyS
a reply to: AndyFromMichigan

I didn't think Jordan was engaged against Assad's forces. I thought they were helping coalition forces against ISIS targets in the ISIS held region of Syria.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I seriously doubt the King of Jordan who's actually a pretty cool and intelligent guy would consider starting a war with Syria.

Israel fears nothing.

I too thought they were just providing support and staging for US forces I don’t recall links to direct or indirect assistance to the “rebels”. If you’re just going off the fact that forces were stronger near Jordan before and are now getting walked over that doesn’t necessarily mean there was Jordanian aid. I also don’t see why a base in Jordan would become untenable if the regime regains control of Syria bordering Jordan?

originally posted by: BigDave-AR

originally posted by: TonyS
a reply to: AndyFromMichigan

I didn't think Jordan was engaged against Assad's forces. I thought they were helping coalition forces against ISIS targets in the ISIS held region of Syria.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I seriously doubt the King of Jordan who's actually a pretty cool and intelligent guy would consider starting a war with Syria.

Israel fears nothing.

I too thought they were just providing support and staging for US forces I don’t recall links to direct or indirect assistance to the “rebels”. If you’re just going off the fact that forces were stronger near Jordan before and are now getting walked over that doesn’t necessarily mean there was Jordanian aid. I also don’t see why a base in Jordan would become untenable if the regime regains control of Syria bordering Jordan?

True, a lot of things could change the balance of power down there. For example, do we know the quantity and type of government troops that are committed to that area? It's feasible that since Assad's forces have consolidated control in much more of the country than they had in the past, they're now able to mount a more robust offensive in the south.

I also don't see Assad trying to move into Jordan. That would be suicide.

a reply to: BigDave-AR

The coalition base under US protection being referred to is not I side of Jordan, it sits i side an exclusion zone e of about 55km diameter within Syria on the border with Jordan. You can get a sneak peak of the base by click on the al-tanf like k in my signature. I try to keep it updated when I catch something new coming out of there. Which there will probably be new developments as the campaign in daraa gets more heated.

The purpose of our base there is to cutoff a direct land route for Iran to Lebanon as a support mechanism for Hezbollah and Hamas. Of course the truth is, Hamas gets what it needs from Israel lol. Funny they always attack Israel when it is actually inconvenient for themselves, but works well for Israel politically.

Anyways, it seems Jordan's participation was always limited to hosting coalition forces to train fighters to combat ISIS. And the occasional CJTF-OIR airstrike 🚀🗾

originally posted by: worldstarcountry
a reply to: BigDave-AR

The coalition base under US protection being referred to is not I side of Jordan, it sits i side an exclusion zone e of about 55km diameter within Syria on the border with Jordan. You can get a sneak peak of the base by click on the al-tanf like k in my signature. I try to keep it updated when I catch something new coming out of there. Which there will probably be new developments as the campaign in daraa gets more heated.

The purpose of our base there is to cutoff a direct land route for Iran to Lebanon as a support mechanism for Hezbollah and Hamas. Of course the truth is, Hamas gets what it needs from Israel lol. Funny they always attack Israel when it is actually inconvenient for themselves, but works well for Israel politically.

Anyways, it seems Jordan's participation was always limited to hosting coalition forces to train fighters to combat ISIS. And the occasional CJTF-OIR airstrike 🚀🗾

Thanks for the info I’ll check it out.

Over the last few days, it seems the Rebel front in Southern Syria has completely collapsed. Many towns are choosing to reconcile with the government. At this rate, the border with Jordan will be back under Syrian government control within the next week or so. Things are likely to get hairy as the fighting approaches the Golan Heights.

As I said before, I strongly suspect that something changed behind the scenes.

Update: for sure, the Rebel groups in southern Syria are finished. The entire Syria/Jordan border is back under government control, except for the area around al-Tanf, plus a small ISIS-held pocket in the area that borders Jordan and the Golan Heights. There is still a thin Rebel-held strip bordering the Golan Heights, but this is being dealt with as well (carefully, so as not to trigger Israeli bombardment).

As I said before, I believe something changed behind the scenes. The Rebels lost their foreign support, and were left out in the cold.

As for the Rebel-held Idlib area in northern Syria, that has been mostly static, but there is chatter that the Syrian government might be planning a major offensive for this fall. Russia is the dominant power controlling events there.

a reply to: AndyFromMichigan

I'm pretty sure the rebels have access to internet or other medias. If Assad is aligning himself with Russia, Iran and China. I'm pretty sure the rebels feel pointless in fighting Assad now. That isn't a win-win situation. Its just suicide like ISIS. Everyone is jumping off the American boat. Everyone is united against ISIS and I'm pretty sure the rebels don't want to be called ISIS.

Also Jordan was never in the war. It was allowing US to have access to Syria by having bases there just like Turkey. Turkey kicked US out.