a reply to: 3n19m470
All right. Fair question.
Getting more industrialised has made them more outgoing strategically. They will want to protect their communications with their sources of raw
material and their trading partners. This gives them an interest in sea-power, and it's possible to see a sea-power arms race coming up similar to
Britain and Germany in 1900. But since they are likely to be stubborn about protecting their trade, friendship might be a better way of coping with
their global interests than hostility. Less likely to set up World War 3.
The big difference from Russia is that they are not really an expansionist state, in terms of territory. The reconquest of Tibet, the periodic
"adjustment" of the Himalayan frontier, the refusal to accept the ultimate loss of Taiwan, are all about recovering traditional borders. We may also
see an interest in recovering the traditional spheres of influence, in Indochina and Korea.
And their large investment in American debt is the best guarantee that they would not even want to see America destroyed. How would they get their
The old Byzantine foreign policy (I got this from Toynbee) was "If you have barbarians on the frontier, make allies of the people living on the other
side of them." Adopting this policy, it does make sense for Europeans to make friends with China over the heads of Russia (and for the Australians to
make friends with China over the heads of Indonesia).
Perhaps it is more difficult for Americans to see a common enemy "between" America and China. I still think Russia fits the bill morally, if not quite
geographically (except when Asia is approached over the North Pole).
Failing that, we might note that China also has troubles with Muslims.
And consider this; the apparent growth of Chinese interest westwards, into the Middle East, is actually cutting across and potentially frustrating the
traditional Russian drive southwards
. It is a version of the Russo-British "Great Game" of Victorian times. It was already beginning in the
Sixties; "The Russians are close friends with India? Then we will be close friends with Pakistan." If Russian influence grows, especially if it
spreads into Iran, we might yet see China giving substantial support to Israel. So there again, perhaps, America and China ought to be on the same
edit on 14-6-2018 by DISRAELI because: (no reason given)