Strong hiring in May cuts unemployment rate to 18-year low

a reply to: burdman30ott6

In 2012 we needed 300K jobs per month to rebuild from the Great Recession in a timely manner.

How are you determining what qualifies as a "timely manner?" There's always some way of framing things to fit an agenda. "It was the slowest recovery since WWII!" (because you know, all recessions are identical)

Yes, it took longer to get to the pre-recession levels with the "Great Recession" than it did following the 2001 recession. There was also a much bigger drop to rebound from and if you look at the longer view, the expansion following the peak has lasted longer (had lasted longer while Obama was still in office) and the cumulative job growth was substantially higher (and that's before the GR, after which it of course went the other direction).

By another measure, it took 28 months from the start of the 2001 recession before job numbers started to turn around vs 21 months for the GR.

After 4 years of painfully slow rolling "growth" and the last 2 years of fairly healthy growth

There's been no radical change in job growth:



And again:

• 2017: 171,000
• 2016: 187,000
• 2015: 226,000
• 2014: 250,000
• 2013: 192,000
• 2012: 179,000

There's always some way of spinning things. It's bad business to give the president too much credit (or blame) for the economy and it can turn around and bite him and his supporters on the ass when the inevitable downturn arrives.

originally posted by: theantediluvian
a reply to: Krakatoa

So, we have a massive increase in hiring, a dropping unemployment rate, and hourly pay raises since the new administration came onboard.

Fox News Research Verified account @FoxNewsResearch

Average Monthly #Job Gains
-by year

• 2017: 171,000
• 2016: 187,000
• 2015: 226,000
• 2014: 250,000
• 2013: 192,000
• 2012: 179,000
• 2011: 174,000
• 2010: 88,000
#JobsReport

8:54 AM - 5 Jan 2018

I am seriously asking. Can those haters of our president even acknowledge that these figures from the U.S. Labor Dept are positive aspects of our current economy?

I dunno, seemed to work out fine for all the years that Trump's base was caterwauling about how Obama was destroying the economy.

you've obviously never worked in a sector of the economy that's directly impact by the policies of our government

I do, construction is a very sensitive market and it's been booming literally since the day Trump walked in office, Obama put so many people out of business that in areas where the economy has really been thriving (mostly red states) they have no one left to do the work

a reply to: Krakatoa

a reply to: theantediluvian

your graphs and links are amazing, night and day different once Trump got in office

it's like lending increased or something, people suddenly began spending money again

not sure what it is was but the economy has been BRUTAL since 08

literally, half of the construction business's or more are no longer here

a reply to: theantediluvian

Deeper recession rebounds should happen faster in the early part of the rebound than shallower recession rebounds do. That's basic Milton Friedman economics 101 and it was supported by 150 years of cyclic US economic expansion and contraction. I'm not sure why some folks are willing to give a pass on the recovery from 2008 aside from being enamored with and conditioned to defend, at all costs, the man running the show for those 8 years.

a reply to: theantediluvian

The Senate and House were taken over with Democrat majorities in Jan 2007.

TikTok

😎

I wouldn't trust any numbers coming out of the BLS. Regardless of who is in office. The numbers have been cooked for decades.

It's an exercise in futility, I'm sure everyone here has better things to do with their time.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: theantediluvian

your graphs and links are amazing, night and day different once Trump got in office

it's like lending increased or something, people suddenly began spending money again

not sure what it is was but the economy has been BRUTAL since 08

literally, half of the construction business's or more are no longer here

You may be reading them wrong.

If anything the graphs show that there is very little difference in the transition between Obama and Trump as Presidents.

The job market was the worst in 08 and 09, shaky in 2010 and has stabilized in 2011. It has been pretty much the same since then, through Obama and Trump, with slight variance. If anything it shows that Obama did a good job as far as our economy goes and that Trump has continued to do equally well.

As far as Part time and Full time jobs graph goes, it shows that the situation was the worst in 2010 and has since then seen a very steady reversal. Since 2010 Full Time jobs are on the rise and part time jobs on the decline, with no perceptible change over the last year. So, once again Trump is doing equally well and continuing the trend.

originally posted by: Krakatoa

WASHINGTON – U.S. employers extended a streak of solid hiring in May, adding 223,000 jobs and helping lower the unemployment rate to an 18-year low of 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent in April. Average hourly pay rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier, a slightly faster annual rate than in April, the Labor Department reported Friday. But pay growth remains below levels that are typical when the unemployment rate is this low. Still, the report shows that the nearly 9-year old economic expansion — the second-longest on record — remains on track. Employers appear to be shrugging off recent concerns about global trade disputes.

Source: Strong hiring in May cuts unemployment rate to 18-year low

So, we have a massive increase in hiring, a dropping unemployment rate, and hourly pay raises since the new administration came onboard.

How is this a bad thing?

I am seriously asking. Can those haters of our president even acknowledge that these figures from the U.S. Labor Dept are positive aspects of our current economy?

Wondering why the Unemployment Rate is somehow credible now?

During the Sept. 28, 2015, media event, Trump described an unemployment rate in the range of 5 percent as "such a phony number."

"The number isn't reflective," he said. "I've seen numbers of 24 percent -- I actually saw a number of 42 percent unemployment. Forty-two percent." He continued, "5.3 percent unemployment -- that is the biggest joke there is in this country. … The unemployment rate is probably 20 percent, but I will tell you, you have some great economists that will tell you it's a 30, 32. And the highest I've heard so far is 42 percent."

www.politifact.com...

a reply to: Krakatoa

So, we have a massive increase in hiring, a dropping unemployment rate, and hourly pay raises since the new administration came onboard.

From your quote:

the report shows that the nearly 9-year old economic expansion

So Trump has been in office for 9 years?

originally posted by: 3NL1GHT3N3D1
a reply to: Krakatoa

So, we have a massive increase in hiring, a dropping unemployment rate, and hourly pay raises since the new administration came onboard.

From your quote:

the report shows that the nearly 9-year old economic expansion

So Trump has been in office for 9 years?

Growth ha been steady over the last administration, yes, but it has been slow. In some sectors of the economy, stagnant. Now, there has been an increase across many more sectors (if you read the article linked in the OP it states as much). It has increased more in the past 18 months than previous years.


How is that a bad thing?

originally posted by: soberbacchus

originally posted by: Krakatoa

WASHINGTON – U.S. employers extended a streak of solid hiring in May, adding 223,000 jobs and helping lower the unemployment rate to an 18-year low of 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent in April. Average hourly pay rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier, a slightly faster annual rate than in April, the Labor Department reported Friday. But pay growth remains below levels that are typical when the unemployment rate is this low. Still, the report shows that the nearly 9-year old economic expansion — the second-longest on record — remains on track. Employers appear to be shrugging off recent concerns about global trade disputes.

Source: Strong hiring in May cuts unemployment rate to 18-year low

So, we have a massive increase in hiring, a dropping unemployment rate, and hourly pay raises since the new administration came onboard.

How is this a bad thing?

I am seriously asking. Can those haters of our president even acknowledge that these figures from the U.S. Labor Dept are positive aspects of our current economy?

Wondering why the Unemployment Rate is somehow credible now?

During the Sept. 28, 2015, media event, Trump described an unemployment rate in the range of 5 percent as "such a phony number."

"The number isn't reflective," he said. "I've seen numbers of 24 percent -- I actually saw a number of 42 percent unemployment. Forty-two percent." He continued, "5.3 percent unemployment -- that is the biggest joke there is in this country. … The unemployment rate is probably 20 percent, but I will tell you, you have some great economists that will tell you it's a 30, 32. And the highest I've heard so far is 42 percent."

www.politifact.com...

Because in this article it takes in a lot more factors than just the number. AS we all know, numbers can be gamed. But, the increase in part-time to full time hires, and additional industries beginning reinvestment into expansion plans, all factor into the growth in the economy.

Again I ask, how is this a bad thing?

originally posted by: Krakatoa
Again I ask, how is this a bad thing?

It's not a bad thing at all, Krakatoa, most everyone is happy with the past decade of improvements. I think the misunderstanding here is that some people are trying to attribute the status quo to the current president, instead of looking at the data we have, or at the simple fact that status quo means things have gone unchanged.

And we SHOULD only look at the data, not at the colorful words the MSM may try to use to paint the picture red, nor blue. Political lean doesn't help us.



From this data it should be obvious that things have gone pretty unchanged for the last 9 years. It seems there is a very slight dip in the last year, but that cannot be attributed to Trump as his fault, markets go up and down naturally.

From the FT and PT employment graph, at the very least, there is enough data there for anyone to stop bringing it up as an increase, as the data shows a steady climb, perhaps again a very slight dip right at the end of 2017, but that could be just normal market flow and not Trump's fault.

No one is saying this is bad, it's good, it's just that it's been the same for years now. We need a change in trend in order to call it different, or good, or bad.

a reply to: toysforadults

Well now we know what your problem is — you need glasses!

a reply to: burdman30ott6

Generally speaking, yes, deeper recessions have quicker rebounds but recessions also happen for different reasons and as things change, we even invent new ways to crash things like exotic derivatives for which there's no precedent. Can you think of a similar recession with a housing bubble bursting + financial crisis? You're talking about vast sums of home equity and wealth being obliterated.

I'd point to the "Lost Decade" (or two) in Japan where there was a somewhat similar situation — banks forking over money to unqualified borrowers leading to a big bubble (a real estate and stock bubble) — epic collapse, consolidation, etc. There's a reaaaaaaally long recovery for ya.

Another factor would be the fiscal austerity demanded by the GOP. In previous recessions, like those in the 80s, 90s and in 2001, government spending increased. Not so with this recovery. The GOP blocked additional stimulus spending and then there was the passage of the Budget Control Act of 2011. Remember when worrying about the deficit was a thing? In the midst of a recession/recovery, it was, "deficit! deficit! deficit! OMG HAVE YOU SEEN THE NATIONAL DEBT?!"

Now that the economy has recovered and is humming along for now, crickets. Spend spend spend — and cut taxes.

a reply to: theantediluvian

Deficit hawking was a thing when the debt was still modest enough to wrangle and keep under control. Now it's simply grown too large. Nobody is going to collect on it and at some point the US will change currencies and wipe out most federal debt with the stroke of a pen. The catch there is we (the US) MUST have out boot on the world's neck when we do that or it won't go very well for us. A blisteringly strong economy, tariffs, beyond full employment, plus pushing Russia and China to the edge with trade wars and a new arms race will put us in that position. Look, Nixon essentially did it when he removed us from the Gold Standard and what happened? The economy stagnated for a few years, then roared back at it through the 80s and 90s. It's not an unprecedented scenario.

originally posted by: Krakatoa

originally posted by: Allaroundyou
a reply to: Krakatoa

Maybe next time use a better source.
But yes some of those numbers are correct. There are a few that are snotty to say the least.
Not that I care all the much. I make more money now even though my property tax went up slightly. But the money gained well made up for it.
Ummm here are a couple other links for you and others to check out.

BLS gov

factcheck

So, I guess the Associated Press (the original source) is not good enough? And the U.S. Labor Dept providing the stats is also not good enough?

Really?

You are going to go there to put a negative spin on the data.

Well the AP did go after Trump for teasing the jobs report, claiming no President has done this. Apparently the AP had selective amnesia -

a reply to: theantediluvian

I see you missed the part where we currently in the USA have more jobs than available workers.

Doesn't really fit your bias, does it?

Try reading the real numbers...

Good news you don't like from the BLS

BLS Economic news release

The jobs numbers are going down because we don't have enough workers to fill the positions.

I would also ask you to look at mining and logging and manufacturing numbers.

All industries that Obama said were "just jobs that were never coming back."

Now I know, good news for America right now is bad for you because... Trump.

Sad to see you wish America swirls down the toilet because you have TDS.

As opposed for it swirling down the toilet when your ideology gets back into control, which it doesn't look like it ever will again.

Still winning.... Still whining

I think good economic news is good news no matter what set of politicians are in office.

I'll even give Trump some credit for pumping up the volume of economic growth. Though much of what he added was of a psychological nature, rather than any policy changes. Businesses were, and still are, expecting government policies that are beneficial for them from a Republican dominated government. Perhaps even more so when one of their own, billionaire businessman Donald Trump, is sitting in the big chair. The long-running irrational exuberance in the Stock Market, since the Trump inauguration, is a good example of that.

One problem that may arise from this, however, is inflation. Especially in those markets where there is overemployment. When there are not enough workers to fill available jobs, wage rates increase; thus spawning corresponding cost increases. A major downside of inflation is government borrowing becomes more expensive. And the US government is borrowing a lot of money.

-dex