Satellite data backs theory of North Korean nuclear site collapse

The simulations indicate that the blast — which triggered an earthquake of estimated magnitude 6.3 — caused a cave-in directly above the detonation site, researchers report online May 10 in Science. The simulations also suggest that a second rock collapse, about 700 meters south of the detonation site, caused a smaller quake about eight minutes after the initial explosion.

These rock falls, which caused the face of Mount Mantap to sink about 0.5 meters, could have buried part or all of the underground test facility, rendering it unusable, says study coauthor Teng Wang, a remote sensing and geodesy researcher at the Earth Observatory of Singapore.

Satellite data backs theory of North Korean nuclear site collapse

Newest analysis confirms the collapse of Mount Mantap under which North Korea's nuclear test site resided. Satellite imagery show that the mountain has sunk by about half a meter after it settled, indicating the movement below was far greater.

It confirms suspicions that, as the article says, North Korea "didn’t pledge in April to halt nuclear testing because of international pressure, but because the test site could no longer be used."

May 10 Science Paper

April 27 Sience Paper

a reply to: Kharron
It's a ruse?
Heh. Crafty Kim.

a reply to: Kharron

It confirms suspicions that, as the article says, North Korea "didn’t pledge in April to halt nuclear testing because of international pressure, but because the test site could no longer be used."

It could lend evidence to that theory.

I don't see how it confirms that.

Also, we've pretty much known that seeing as radioactive particles were detected in higher amounts than previous tests. We've been pretty certain that mountain collapsed.

It confirms suspicions that, as the article says, North Korea "didn’t pledge in April to halt nuclear testing because of international pressure, but because the test site could no longer be used."

Mmmmm......

Actually, considering how long they've had the site and the construction of it, I would have to say that the sanctions have helped.

While the loss of the facility might be one reason, construction of another under ground facility is costly. If they were that determined to keep developing nuclear weapons, they would build another.

However, if they are short on funds to do so......it becomes problematic.

Personally I think Kim has finally figured out that playing nice will get you more, than screaming and waving a big stick with threats.

a reply to: Kharron

Ok I am forced to ask this question

If the test site has collapsed how does this prove that this is the reason NK has suspended or stopped its nuclear program?

Because lots of underground test sites in the US alone have "collapsed" due to thats what big/weapons of a large size do.

only small weapons with very limited power can use the same underground test site more than once.

In fact there are lots of areas in NV where there are multiple craters showing multiple nuclear tests.
the US didnt stop until we signed the test band treaty , not because "test site has collapsed"

All NK needs to do (and may be doing we dont know) is digging out another test site.
Just like the US did.

It seems that the anti trump people are grasping at ANYTHING they can find, no matter how slim or outright ridiculous to show trump is bad and/or not give him his just due for doing something good .

Or in this case something obama, bush and clinton COULD NOT DO.

Scrounger

a reply to: eriktheawful

Of course, they could well have what they were after. Something "good enough for government work" and don't have a strong need to continue testing. That doesn't mean they aren't building.

a reply to: Phage

That's true.

However, I have a really bad habit of trying to see the good side of people if possible.

Once kim gets in good with the west, he will say we have a problem, we got radiation leaking all over from the old nuclear test site and we need megabucks to fix the problem which is going to kill everything around that area. Maybe they know something we don't know yet.

a reply to: eriktheawful

However, I have a really bad habit of trying to see the good side of people if possible.

But...but...

Little rocket man... Threatening to nuke the US, remember?


Do you look at Iran the same way? Or does Iran not have a good side? Unlike North Korea.

originally posted by: rickymouse
Once kim gets in good with the west, he will say we have a problem, we got radiation leaking all over from the old nuclear test site and we need megabucks to fix the problem which is going to kill everything around that area. Maybe they know something we don't know yet.

China border and a threat to them so I'm sure they will help.

a reply to: Kharron

Whether or not the site collapsed, this would have been north koreas play anyway. Its part of their play book. Once they have missles and nukes that the world believes are more likely to work than not, they have an effective standoff weapon. Then they come to the table from a position of strength and say "we have 40 or 50 nukes capable of striking around the world. You cant invade us. Now we want peace. We will give up half of our nukes and cap our production at 20ish if you remove sanctions and sign a peace treaty" that way everyone can walk away and look like a winner. Trump can say we got them to technically denuclearize, south korea can not live under the threat of impeding doom 24/7, and kim can export crappy Hyundai and K-pop knockoffs. Everyone wins.

Except japan.

Why cant he just test at another site? or even out in the ocean?

To pretend that the USA's pressure this past 12 months hasnt forced NK to talk and release prisoners is pretty dumb.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

To pretend that the USA's pressure this past 12 months hasnt forced NK to talk and release prisoners is pretty dumb.

It's not the first time prisoners have been released.
To pretend that Kim getting a meeting with the POTUS has nothing to do with North Korea's nuclear capability is absurd.

originally posted by: Agit8dChop
Why cant he just test at another site? or even out in the ocean?

To pretend that the USA's pressure this past 12 months hasnt forced NK to talk and release prisoners is pretty dumb.

Fun fact, North Korea sits on TRILLIONS of dollars worth of rare earth minerals that it has absolutely no way to get out. The equipment required to get it cant be imported due to sanctions. And they arent making it themselves. Digging is hard for north korea. Also, digging out a mountain and a hole deep enough to contain a nuke would probably take away from one of the few things keeping money coming in, and thats thier coal industry. But it is a dictatorship so he could always say "make it happen" and take the financial hit of the billions of dollars it would take to make a new testing site.
As for testing over the ocean, well, thats too likely to start a war. Remember, this is all posturing. If Kim wanted a war, he would be testing the next nukes over San Diego, Guam, Hawaii, and Japan, not the pacific ocean.
Honestly, i dont think they really have that much more to test. north korea know their nukes work(Or atleast they know the world THINKS they work), and they have the data they need to mass produce them. The rocket program is GOOD ENOUGH. Theyve been fitting the missles with dummy replica warheads when they fire them.. All they have left is to fit a warhead on a missle and fire it out into the ocean at a realistic angle, instead of at the damn moon. Which i think is highly unlikely, unless the north koreans really are some crazy death cult. Or this summit falls through and Kim has to kick it back up to 11. Even then its unlikely as he could probably just try to settle things with south korea and edge the US out.

In the past NK leaders wouldn't dare cross the border nor would they meet with the US.

Now that Kim has a nuclear deterrent he can swagger just about anywhere with impunity.

Just needs to say he won't test anymore and negotiations are opened. Considering his test site is kaput he is not giving up anything. It is not clear what, if anything, North Korea will agree to at the summit or what Kim means by denuclearization.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: eriktheawful

However, I have a really bad habit of trying to see the good side of people if possible.

But...but...

Little rocket man... Threatening to nuke the US, remember?


Do you look at Iran the same way? Or does Iran not have a good side? Unlike North Korea.

I believe that if one looks hard enough, hopes hard enough, stays patient enough, that in the end the majority of the people that live somewhere simply want to live in peace and be left alone.

Naive thinking on my part, sure, but that's just who I am.

a reply to: Kharron

Actually this does lend credence to sanctions being the reason. If the facility was compromised and they required a lot of money to repair/rebuild then they would if they had the funds, which the sanctions would impact.

originally posted by: Whoisjohngalt
a reply to: Kharron

Whether or not the site collapsed, this would have been north koreas play anyway. Its part of their play book. Once they have missles and nukes that the world believes are more likely to work than not, they have an effective standoff weapon. Then they come to the table from a position of strength and say "we have 40 or 50 nukes capable of striking around the world. You cant invade us. Now we want peace. We will give up half of our nukes and cap our production at 20ish if you remove sanctions and sign a peace treaty" that way everyone can walk away and look like a winner. Trump can say we got them to technically denuclearize, south korea can not live under the threat of impeding doom 24/7, and kim can export crappy Hyundai and K-pop knockoffs. Everyone wins.

Except japan.

Japan is tired of Kim's **** too. they would love for him to settle down and play nice.

and they would love access to those aforementioned Rare Earth Minerals and only be too happy to help extract

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
a reply to: Kharron

Actually this does lend credence to sanctions being the reason. If the facility was compromised and they required a lot of money to repair/rebuild then they would if they had the funds, which the sanctions would impact.

You look at the evidence of a collapse, charts showing the way the mountain imploded and most likely took their main or only testing site with it and you choose to ignore that and say - "yeah it's not that, it's the sanctions."

Which sanctions? The ones that started in 2006? I really doubt having money to rebuild is a reason, but TIME necessary to rebuild could be.

You're funny, what you said is like having a broken car but looking out the window and saying, "you know what, it's raining today, I'm not gonna drive to work."

originally posted by: eriktheawful

It confirms suspicions that, as the article says, North Korea "didn’t pledge in April to halt nuclear testing because of international pressure, but because the test site could no longer be used."

Mmmmm......

Actually, considering how long they've had the site and the construction of it, I would have to say that the sanctions have helped.

While the loss of the facility might be one reason, construction of another under ground facility is costly. If they were that determined to keep developing nuclear weapons, they would build another.

However, if they are short on funds to do so......it becomes problematic.

Personally I think Kim has finally figured out that playing nice will get you more, than screaming and waving a big stick with threats.

This. I'd say it's a combination of everything. Of course they're not going to come out and admit that because they want to appear to be in a stronger position going into the negotiations.