The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

A very good article if you ever want to understand how people who prepare think and why. Long article but worth the time to read it through to the end.

Or, “Who Needs an AR-15 Anyway?”

So if you ask someone else on the opposite side of a culture war argument, “Why would you want to own one of those things, anyway?” please don’t be surprised if they simply respond, “Why wouldn’t you?”

medium.com...

As gun policy discussions unfold in the wake of mass shooter incidents, they routinely end in three buckets. There’s the “tyranny can never happen here” bucket, which the left has mostly abdicated in the wake of Trump winning after they called (and still call) him a tyrant. There’s the “you can’t fight the army with small arms” bucket, which is increasingly unsound given our ongoing decade-and-a-half war with Afghani tribal goat herders. And there’s the “what the hell do you need an AR-15 for anyway?” bucket, which, by its very language, eschews a fundamental lack of understanding of what those people are thinking.

If you want to understand the perspectives of others, as everyone in my opinion should strive to do, then you would do well to read to the end of this article. To get where we’re going, we will need to discuss the general framework of disaster mathematics.

Actually I have long mastered the possibilities in life...and math and logic


there's ofcourse too many local variables and the immenseness of the land square miles....which buffer peoples interactions and response ableness.....thusly affecting muster points for preppers so

yeah, AR-15's are nice fire power for wild hogs...plus a .44 mag incase ya see a big one......but intangibles clutter the prepper story

the bottom line remains the same

guns stop tyrranny, huh!!!!...................I want everyone to think like a Texan....those who say no.....to tyranny

ps, sailboat is right out for a viable alternative plan.......they're real lightweight and wimpy and undangcomfortable

That was a great read. I agree with the math 100 percent

a reply to: infolurker

Nope. None of this sounds familiar.

Pretend you’re someone with your eyes on the horizon. What would you be looking for, exactly?
Increasing partisanship.
Civil disorder.
Coup rhetoric.
A widening wealth gap.
A further entrenching oligarchy.
Dysfunctional governance.
The rise of violent extremist ideologies such as Nazism and Communism.
Violent street protests.
People marching with masks and dressing like the Italian Blackshirts.
Attempts at large scale political assassination.

I hate guns and there’s no argument or mathematical formula that will ever change that...... But
What Ive SEEN happening in the USA in the past few years has made me do a 180 degrees turn on my thoughts on Americans disarming.

Your entire governmental structure has been compromised and seems to be actively working against the American people and I hate to say this but I think it’s exclusively down to the fact that so many of you buggers are armed that it hasn’t gone considerably worse.

I look at the people who are pushing for disarming you (always with armed security ironically) and they scare me more than any gun nut Ive ever seen on YouTube

I had a political science professor in college that was what I suppose you would call a "prepper" and made a lot of these same points about impending disaster - with the distinct caveat that he was adamantly opposed to citizens owning firearms. And I mean any firearm, not just AR-15s. One day I couldn't contain myself any longer when he was going off on one of his doomsday preparedness tangents and I just asked him, "do you realize that you've just old me and many other people that if something catastrophic happened in society to where supplies were suddenly extremely scarce that you have them stocked up in abundance with no means to protect yourself or your family?" The befuddled look on his face was priceless.

originally posted by: worldstarcountry
That was a great read. I agree with the math 100 percent

That math is very selective based on a biased assumption. While it may seem correct to those that have a similar mindset it still falls short of being factual. A few variables have been ignored in the articles math.

a reply to: infolurker

our "mathematecal case "

is utter bollox - that only " works " if you lack the ccumen to see through the :

missing dollar " riddle "

originally posted by: IkNOwSTuff
I hate guns and there’s no argument or mathematical formula that will ever change that...... But
What Ive SEEN happening in the USA in the past few years has made me do a 180 degrees turn on my thoughts on Americans disarming.

Your entire governmental structure has been compromised and seems to be actively working against the American people and I hate to say this but I think it’s exclusively down to the fact that so many of you buggers are armed that it hasn’t gone considerably worse.

I look at the people who are pushing for disarming you (always with armed security ironically) and they scare me more than any gun nut Ive ever seen on YouTube

I 2nd this....thank goodness Americans have guns.....their Govt. was so rotten before the Trump movement that the floor was falling out.

Imagine living in a place like Canada where you do have fought for and earned the absolute right and freedom to carry a concealed handgun anywhere anytime you choose....ooops....I mean except for the fact that the Provincial levels of Govt. have fraudulently
formed an adhoc anti-citizen group calling themselves Provincial Firearms Officers and on this level EVERYONE IS ARBITARILY DENIED their FEDERAL RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS by informal agreement...do the math on that.

Every time I see a Cop murder someone inside their car needlessly online and then call it SOP I realise everyone needs to have and carry a gun.......every time I see someone tazed to death in pubic by a Peace Office I shudder and remember to remember that EVERYONE should have and carry a gun....when I watch Walmart shoppers being MURDERED by HIRED ASSASINS THEY CALL SECURITY and then SUPPORRTED BY JUDGES AND THE LEGAL SYSTEM I think to myself...wow...everybody needs to be carrying a gun or they could die simply going to the Supermarket....killed by some dotard with a gun calling themselves the law on some level.

originally posted by: Allaroundyou

originally posted by: worldstarcountry
That was a great read. I agree with the math 100 percent

That math is very selective based on a biased assumption. While it may seem correct to those that have a similar mindset it still falls short of being factual. A few variables have been ignored in the articles math.

Then please do tell which.

(and preferably why they should be included and how it will impact the conclusion)

originally posted by: Allaroundyou

originally posted by: worldstarcountry
That was a great read. I agree with the math 100 percent

That math is very selective based on a biased assumption. While it may seem correct to those that have a similar mindset it still falls short of being factual. A few variables have been ignored in the articles math.

To be considered an argument you would need to detail these variables so that they can be discussed.

originally posted by: ignorant_ape
a reply to: infolurker

our "mathematecal case "

is utter bollox - that only " works " if you lack the ccumen to see through the :

missing dollar " riddle "

How is this applicable?
Please do tell how it apply.

By explaining rather than stating you will make your contribution to the thread a valuable one.

a reply to: bigfatfurrytexan

I don’t see how the part about adding up the chances of a flood make sense. Math was not my strong point but I feel that there are other things that should be considered. Such as where you live would greatly change that calculation. So lets say you live in Texas or Florida where hurricanes are common would the chance of a flood not be greater than say Nevada for instance?
When I used the term biased earlier I was only speaking about that in a geographical sense. Just wanted to clear that one up.
For the most all the math presented in the article makes sense. It is only when I see something that does not to me at least I get skeptical of the entire piece. Since math was never my thing I don’t like it when equations are thrown at me then one just kinda sticks out as being possibly not true. I’ll be honest it kinda freaks me out. Anyways if you could clear that part up I would greatly appreciate it.

a reply to: Allaroundyou

Id suspect deserts, with flash flooding, represent pretty significant risk.

a reply to: infolurker

Now, obviously, I have no firearms, and I have no interest in ever owning one. I believe, however, that the second amendment to the constitution of the United States of America is arguably one of the most important parts, of one of the most important, soundly constructed, and useful documents ever devised, particularly given its age. Yes, no doubt there are parts of it which were rooted in the wrong think of yesteryear, as with any aged text. However, the second amendment is not one of those parts. It is fundamentally and intrinsically linked to the freedom of the people and one of the strongest guarantees of it, where properly indulged in.

However, personally speaking, I will always favour the relative silence and reliability of cold steel, over the noise, dirt and comparative unreliability of hot lead. For all that I, personally, do not subscribe to the "arms=guns" idea (because arms is a broad term, not a narrow one), I do subscribe to the notion that a person, regardless of their station in life, must do all they physically and financially can, to prepare for unpleasant scenarios. People may look at me like I am some sort of prat when I come out on a regular day out, with a multipurpose jacket and combat trousers... but they soon change their tune when I can always be relied upon for a flashlight, or a powerbank, or a magnifying glass.

a reply to: bigfatfurrytexan

Ohhh ya I forgot about that. These flash floods suck. Well I stand corrected.

a reply to: TrueBrit

Magnifying glass Like for burning ants lol
God I hate ants and have to spray each month. I have prepped for there invasion though. A can of compressed body spray and a lighter I think will do just fine. I used to use my shotgun but then my neighbor told me that is stupid so I stopped.

a reply to: Allaroundyou

Burning ants is not the first thing that came to mind, when I started carrying one around on the regular.

I just like being able to light anything from a cigarette to a bonfire, without using any processed fuels to do it, or mess about with the bow or other manual methods, unless absolutely necessary.

a reply to: TrueBrit

Well have you at least burned a few??? I mean the ant population is kinda out of control. And in order to ensure our survival some ants must perish.

a reply to: Allaroundyou

See, what with the collapse of bee colonies over the last few years, I am wary in the extreme of killing off members of any hive or colony at the moment. Nature is a delicate balance, struck between populations of animals, insects, fish and flora. When one or many parts of it are under threat, the last thing I tend to do, is start going after another species, even if it seems innumerable.

Besides, there are MEANT to be lots and lots of ants. They have a big part to play within this biome we are all a part of