It would seem that the old saying: "You can fool some people most of the time or most people some of the time, but you can't fool most people most
of the time" is playing out in the fortunes of the democratic party. A poll out yesterday showed that millenial support for democrats is down 9
points over 2016. The biggest shift is among white male millenials who, in 2016 48% of them supported democrats, in 2018 that number is now 37%, a
loss of 11%. That shift has almost entirely gone to the republican party which gained 10% over that same time frame (went from 36% to 46% support).
Just as important as the shift, is the reasons for the shift. It's the economy, stupid. Millenials like having more money in their paychecks and an
abundance of jobs to choose from. The ignorant millenials are finally realizing that democratic policies don't work and don't even make sense.
This is a reuters/ipsos poll
But this is just one metric in the collapse. They're also on the brink of losing the "african"-american vote. 60 years of lying about how they
care about the plight of african americans, is finally catching up to them. Took longer than I would have wanted, but better late than never. Again it
boils down to the economy, with their unemployment reaching lows not recorded since data was collected (the 70's) they too are coming around to
realize republicans are better for them than their great empathizers, the democrats. See kanye west for an anecdotal example.
Finally the blue wave. As it stands the democrats have an edge of 6.8 points in the general congressional ballot polling,
according to RCP
, if we take a look back at
midterm polling that's been about average for this point in the game except in 2010, when republicans picked up a historic number of seats.
Here's a look at those numbers since the turn of the century, all in this same april-may time frame:
2014: D+3.5 (republicans pick up 9 senate seats, 13 house)
2010: R+3.7 (republicans pick up 6 senate seats, 64 house)
2006: D+12.8 (actual dem wave picks up 5 senate seats, 32 house)
2002: D+4.25 (republicans pick up 1 senate seat, 8 house)
Notice how the polling is so skewed? in a republican +3.7 year, they end up picking up 70 seats in the federal gov, but a dem +12.8 year they only
pick up 37? Meanwhile in the dem +3.5 year reps still managed to gain over 20 seats? c'mon now, if that's not bias, IDK what is.
When going back and looking at this data a trend becomes clear (with 2006 being an outlier), the closer the election gets the more people sour on
democrats. So if that souring continues (as it has, just four months ago it was D+14) we may be looking at another decent sized republican gain.
Then factor in the map being extremely unfavorable to democrats this year. Are red states and districts going to elect democrats in droves? In 2006
they did so because the dems were successful at painting the iraq war as a failure. So what will be the catalyst this year? Trump hate? Most middle
Americans were convinced in '06 that the war needed to end, are those middle Americans convinced trump is satan reincarnate? Because that seems to be
the democrat strategy so far.
Finally we come back to the millennial, who is going to be more motivated to vote? People politically active enough to switch parties in an off-cycle
year or your every day millennial who has failed to show up for dems in the droves the dems have needed over the last few election cycles?
I'm not saying the dems are done for in the midterms, but their blue wave sure looks to be very far from a sure thing.