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The Democratic Party is Collapsing, Blue Wave in Peril?

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posted on May, 1 2018 @ 11:46 AM
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It would seem that the old saying: "You can fool some people most of the time or most people some of the time, but you can't fool most people most of the time" is playing out in the fortunes of the democratic party. A poll out yesterday showed that millenial support for democrats is down 9 points over 2016. The biggest shift is among white male millenials who, in 2016 48% of them supported democrats, in 2018 that number is now 37%, a loss of 11%. That shift has almost entirely gone to the republican party which gained 10% over that same time frame (went from 36% to 46% support).

Just as important as the shift, is the reasons for the shift. It's the economy, stupid. Millenials like having more money in their paychecks and an abundance of jobs to choose from. The ignorant millenials are finally realizing that democratic policies don't work and don't even make sense.

This is a reuters/ipsos poll

But this is just one metric in the collapse. They're also on the brink of losing the "african"-american vote. 60 years of lying about how they care about the plight of african americans, is finally catching up to them. Took longer than I would have wanted, but better late than never. Again it boils down to the economy, with their unemployment reaching lows not recorded since data was collected (the 70's) they too are coming around to realize republicans are better for them than their great empathizers, the democrats. See kanye west for an anecdotal example.

Finally the blue wave. As it stands the democrats have an edge of 6.8 points in the general congressional ballot polling, according to RCP, if we take a look back at midterm polling that's been about average for this point in the game except in 2010, when republicans picked up a historic number of seats.
Here's a look at those numbers since the turn of the century, all in this same april-may time frame:
2014: D+3.5 (republicans pick up 9 senate seats, 13 house)
2010: R+3.7 (republicans pick up 6 senate seats, 64 house)
2006: D+12.8 (actual dem wave picks up 5 senate seats, 32 house)
2002: D+4.25 (republicans pick up 1 senate seat, 8 house)

Notice how the polling is so skewed? in a republican +3.7 year, they end up picking up 70 seats in the federal gov, but a dem +12.8 year they only pick up 37? Meanwhile in the dem +3.5 year reps still managed to gain over 20 seats? c'mon now, if that's not bias, IDK what is.

When going back and looking at this data a trend becomes clear (with 2006 being an outlier), the closer the election gets the more people sour on democrats. So if that souring continues (as it has, just four months ago it was D+14) we may be looking at another decent sized republican gain.

Then factor in the map being extremely unfavorable to democrats this year. Are red states and districts going to elect democrats in droves? In 2006 they did so because the dems were successful at painting the iraq war as a failure. So what will be the catalyst this year? Trump hate? Most middle Americans were convinced in '06 that the war needed to end, are those middle Americans convinced trump is satan reincarnate? Because that seems to be the democrat strategy so far.

Finally we come back to the millennial, who is going to be more motivated to vote? People politically active enough to switch parties in an off-cycle year or your every day millennial who has failed to show up for dems in the droves the dems have needed over the last few election cycles?

I'm not saying the dems are done for in the midterms, but their blue wave sure looks to be very far from a sure thing.




posted on May, 1 2018 @ 11:52 AM
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Nothing is collapsing. Elections run in cycles. We're in a Republican upturn right now, but it will swing back as it always has, and there will be a Democrat upturn. Soon enough, Congress will flip to Democratic Party control, and then the Presidency. After that, Congress will flip again to Republican control and on, and on.

neither party has enough votes to win anything with their core supporters so it all depends on the swing voting moderates out there to decide when a flip happens and how long it lasts.
edit on 1-5-2018 by usernameconspiracy because: (no reason given)


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posted on May, 1 2018 @ 11:54 AM
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a reply to: usernameconspiracy

Care to comment on the loss of millenial support for the democratic party?



posted on May, 1 2018 @ 11:55 AM
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I believe it all comes down to turnout.

Trump won on the votes of millions that had never voted, or hadn't in recent elections. Historically, turnout is meager for midterms. Will those Trump voters turn out to vote for other Republicans?


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posted on May, 1 2018 @ 11:59 AM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

Just my opinion, but here's how I picture the "blue wave". . . .




posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:04 PM
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a reply to: Mach2

It sure does. Turnout is key and no one knows who will turnout until it happens.



posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:06 PM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

To be clear, I'm not in any way saying this swing back to democrats taking control of Congress is happening in these midterms; just that it will swing back.

I'm not personally invested in how Millennial A voted or will vote versus how Millennial B voted or will vote. just that they are voting is good for both parties and for America. Voter apathy has been rampant for way too long.



posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:09 PM
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a reply to: DBCowboy

Your post makes me want to give Congress a swirly
edit on 5 1 2018 by dashen because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:10 PM
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I think the best thing that could happen to the modern left is taking current establishments down to rubble, so that.. non-crazy elements could rise from the ashes.

I think the problem extends far beyond the Democratic party though, even if it is definitely a part of it.



posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:10 PM
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a reply to: usernameconspiracy

I agree mostly. However, it seems to have come at a cost I don't like. Everything has been politicized. Religion. Sports. Entertainment. Is it worth it for better voter engagement? I'm not so sure.

I don't think the democratic party will disappear, just like banking didn't disappear after the '08 collapse. Just that they're currently in the middle of a crisis. They will probably come out stronger for it in a few years. Hopefully they learn some hard lessons that are beckoning.
edit on 1-5-2018 by Dfairlite because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:12 PM
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Polls are useless. They are a findings of...those that participate. Those that have something to say. Both pro and con whatever the poll is about. The majority that doesn't have time for that nonsense aren't represented.


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posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:18 PM
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White males are not welcome among the Democrats, they have been so racist against them that the number supporting them will continue to decline.



posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:20 PM
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a reply to: dashen

Personally, I think they're all way over-do for one.




posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:24 PM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

I wouldn't put much stock in the millennials turning out to vote.

They were the main drivers of the "Trump is literally Hitler" psychosis. He was going to round up all the gays and blacks and there would be mass lynching and executions just like Isis.

Then when the fate of the human race was at stake on election day they couldn't even be bothered to go vote against the evil cis white male.

And we all were reminded that Facebook likes, Twitter posts and blog rants don't actually accomplish anything.



posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:24 PM
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originally posted by: intrepid
Polls are useless. They are a findings of...those that participate. Those that have something to say. Both pro and con whatever the poll is about. The majority that doesn't have time for that nonsense aren't represented.

Not only that, but polls are usually manipulated to portray a predetermined outcome.

If you ask a question a certain way, you may get a different response than if you asked the same basic question a different way.

Another problem is the fact that polls are in no way random. It is statistically impossible for a poll of 1000 ppl to have an accuracy of +-5%, as the pollsters like to purport.



posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:27 PM
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a reply to: intrepid

Good polls are not useless. And tracking the polls vs reality has plenty of value. But yes, many polls are basically useless themselves.



posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:30 PM
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a reply to: Mach2

It is statistically impossible for a poll of 1000 ppl to have an accuracy of +-5%, as the pollsters like to purport.


You're either a statistical genius or a moron. Explain.



posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:31 PM
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We'll see, I've seen nothing but a constant energizing of the left, which is no big surprise considering what is going on these days. The left of this country also knows that the Democrats are center-right republicans in disguise. It'll swing back to the will of the people... which the election of Trump was not.



posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:31 PM
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I would like to believe that enough people that do vote Democrat would finally notice the stench that is coming from them, but I don't think enough have. I think the mid terms will not be a blue wave, but they will take more seats than I would like to admit.

Both of my in laws still will vote Democrat because they are old and get all news from MSM and believe all of it. It's a very sad thing to see happen.

Maybe the Dems will have a "blue hair" wave?



posted on May, 1 2018 @ 12:33 PM
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a reply to: okrian


The left of this country also knows that the Democrats are center-right republicans in disguise.


What do you consider center right that the democrats support?



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