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Your chance of seeing a UFO in the US (state-by-state comparison)

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posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 04:25 PM
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Why am I not surprised about California? Oh right Area51 is there oops.




posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 04:26 PM
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a reply to: makemap

A big number seems to indicate lower chances.
I think.



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 04:28 PM
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a reply to: makemap

I don't follow. area 51 is in nevada. however it's under the control of Edwards afb.which is outside los angeles in california. lots of weird stuff goes on at China lake, Edwards and surrounding environs.



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 05:03 PM
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originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: endo26

My point was that in Florida your "odds" are 348,500. A much greater number than Maryland. Why is Florida not the least likely state?


When talking betting odds +SOMETHING is the amounts you get back in dollars if you place a $100 bet and win. The lower the number, the greater the chance of seeing a UFO in that particular state. It is not very intuitive.

As far a I can tell the odds (or rather the winnings) are calculated using the factors population size, observations, and (perhaps) time.

So if two states have the same number of observations and the same population size, but one state's observations span a twice as long time period as the other, then that state would have a +SOMETHING twice that of the other.

I am not sure though, it just fits reasonably well with my sample guesstimations.


edit on 23-4-2018 by DupontDeux because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 05:04 PM
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originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: makemap

A big number seems to indicate lower chances.
I think.


It does indicate just that.

edit on 23-4-2018 by DupontDeux because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 05:06 PM
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a reply to: DupontDeux
That's how I interpreted the values.

Then it would seem the Florida is the state in which one is least likely to see a UFO, not Maryland. As the page states.

Also quite unlikely in California.



edit on 4/23/2018 by Phage because: (no reason given)

edit on 4/23/2018 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 05:11 PM
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originally posted by: BASSPLYR

originally posted by: olaru12
In Salida Colorado, sightings are so common they have UFO parties on the deck.



that's very interesting. to the east of Salina is schriever afb. home to US Air Force Space Command. also Colorado springs home to several afb and Cheyenne mountain. bet theyre seeing so exotic stuff being tested.


Also home to the Stargate program.



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 05:13 PM
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originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: DupontDeux

Then it would seem the Florida is the state in which one is least likely to see a UFO, not Maryland. As the page states.


To be honest, I think that is simply a mistake.
That does not fit anything.



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 05:14 PM
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a reply to: DupontDeux
The Maryland thing could be a mistake.

Still seems screwy.
It could be a deeper mistake is in using population rather than population density?

edit on 4/23/2018 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 05:16 PM
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a reply to: Phage

yeah their metrics are focusing on the wrong stuff. upstate Florida is a great place to see "ufos" as is the slidel area near the Texas Louisiana border.



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 07:15 PM
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originally posted by: olaru12
In Salida Colorado, sightings are so common they have UFO parties on the deck.

Olaru, baby...right here on ats yes

a video in 2011 or so and stills that same year all saying Salida....and I posted the account from the 1908 newspaper with a matching description....silver cigars ....in the Salida newspaper evun........u on purpose ( in a wisper ).and the others...i used to hang in Crestone...



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 07:24 PM
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a reply to: endo26

Apparently, the odds are pretty good in Montana. I was born and raised here, and lived most of my life here. I ain't never seen nothin'. Kinda miffed about it actually.

My dad saw something when he was a young man though. He's a really level headed guy. He'll tell you about it if you ask, and he'll tell it just like it was no thing. Like he's saying "I had pancakes for breakfast". Only longer... You get what I mean.



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 07:31 PM
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I'm oddly hung up on this. Because it doesn't make any sense.

What do these "odds" mean?

If I'm in Wyoming does it mean that out of 20,500 things I see in the sky, one will be a UFO?

Or does it mean that if I look at the sky 20,500 times I will see a UFO?

Or does it mean that if 20,500 people see a UFO, I will be one of those people?


What does it mean?



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 08:05 PM
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a reply to: Phage

if 20,500 people are out n about 1 will look up and be lucky enough to see a ufo



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 08:07 PM
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a reply to: BASSPLYR

I hadn't thought of that interpretation. (obviously)

That website is weak on detail. Highly weak.

edit on 4/23/2018 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 08:11 PM
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a reply to: Phage

you know I'm not sure my interpretation is right either. just looked up what it says for California and the odds of seeing a ufo is 168,700. and it said there are 23,614 ufo sightings there. so by my thinking. California's population of 39.54 million divided by 23,614 would mean something like 1 out of 1688 people would see a ufo. so how'd they get a magnitude larger with 168,700?



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 08:14 PM
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a reply to: BASSPLYR

Good work. Seems like a mutiplier of 100 was used.
Now go verify it.

heh.
edit on 4/23/2018 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 08:16 PM
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a reply to: Phage

but why a multiplayer of 100? why not just go with what I did. weird website



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 08:17 PM
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a reply to: BASSPLYR

Bad website.
Bad.



posted on Apr, 23 2018 @ 08:20 PM
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south Carolina population. 5.024 million. ufo sightings 4285. should have 1 out of 1,172 will see a ufo. they say on website odds are 117,300 . so yeah. they are using a multiplayer of 100. but why? makes no sense to me.
edit on 23-4-2018 by BASSPLYR because: (no reason given)




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