NEWS: North Korean Nuclear Bluff

The Bush administration's non-pulsed attitude towards the North Korean declaration that they have nuclear weapons may be because they don't believe it. Some people in the administration feel that North Korea is bluffing in order to gain attention from the international community, and the United States in particular. One intel expert is suggesting that the administration ask the North Koreans to "prove it".



North Korea's admission that it posseses nuclear weapons was without a doubt to gain the attention of the international community. In my opinion, it was also intended to be used as a bargaining chip in either multi-national or direct talks.

A direct challenge to Pyongyang to prove they have nuclear capabilities by asking them to detonate one could be an effective tactic. In affect calling their bluff. No nuclear test on their part, and they have lost credibility. If they do successfully test a bomb, then they will gain the respect they demand.

Related News Links:
www.tothepointnews.com

Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
NEWS: North Korea Admits It Has Nukes
NEWS: Mushroom Cloud Seen After N.Korea Explosion 9/9/04

[edit on 2/17/2005 by phreak_of_nature]

To "prove it"???

Doesn't that sound like asking someone to punch you?

Honestly ... WHO CARES?!?! as long as no one bugs them we should be fine right... it's not like their running around the world FORCING freedom on people..

Without a nuclear test, they do not have a bomb, even if they are infact convinced that they do. They need to test at least one to demonstrate that their technology works.

The only reasonable reason to not test, as far as I can figure, is if the bomb was built wholly on already tested foreign designs.

Originally posted by Nygdan
Without a nuclear test, they do not have a bomb, even if they are infact convinced that they do. They need to test at least one to demonstrate that their technology works.

The only reasonable reason to not test, as far as I can figure, is if the bomb was built wholly on already tested foreign designs.

Theres never been a nuclear bomb to date thats failed to go off.

As such picard, either you take NKorea at its word that they indeed have a bomb, or the speculation as to whether they actually do have a bomb goes on, till they test.

Virtually every nation that has joined the nuclear club has historically tested a nuclear device. The point and observation that has and is being made is not a "we dare you" attitude. It's simply been the way things have operated historically when applied to a nation having or acquiring a nuclear device/bomb.




seekerof

Originally posted by picard_is_actually_a_grey
Theres never been a nuclear bomb to date thats failed to go off.

Sure, but, considering the signifcance of it, it requires testing. Effectively, north korean has come out and said 'we have a bomb'. Heck, india and pakistan announced it to the world governments by detonating them.

I guess my conspiracy twisted mind wants to say that the North Koreans already did test a bomb. That is why I included the link to the other thread referencing the mushroom cloud seen over the northern part of that country.

I have also noticed that when discussing that topic some confuse that explosion with the one at the rail station. They were two different incidents. The rail explosion came first, and was in a heavily populated area. The mushroom cloud explosion came second and was in an unpopulated area.

There is much speculation as to wether or not it was a nuclear device, or an accident as they prepared for a missile test.
EDIT: It was officially declared to be an explosion to clear a mountain so they could build a dam, which the international community excepted.

[edit on 2/17/2005 by phreak_of_nature]

North Korea could have tested it, the mysterious explosion, some crazy theories say they've tested underground, resulting in the tsunami (abit too crazy). But i do feel North Korea have "the bomb", they might test it by attacking a country.

[edit on 17-2-2005 by infinite]

I don't think they would go so far as to nuke someone to prove a point. Kim's crazy, but he's not insane. He's got to realize that were he to nuke say South Korea or Japan, that would not be tolerated.

He has a better chance of remaining in power if he can demonstrate his nuclear abilities without using it against another country.

I would believe him,
except that they haven't tested one (as stated)
and it is incredibly hard to believe someone who TRYS to look like a troll doll...

If he does have one, then I would have to assume that it was a smuggled russian nuke... since they are available at a price, and he does have a little money...

but if so, then he will not waste it on a test to prove he has one...

so the angry little troll doll will just have to keep spinning..

BTW, with all the SK and japanese kidnappings... were any nuclear scientists?

Originally posted by picard_is_actually_a_grey
Theres never been a nuclear bomb to date thats failed to go off.

I had heard that the manhattan project made four bombs, they tested one in New Mexico, and the other didn't work, which is why they only had two for Japan. Can anyone verify this?

As far as I know, there were only 3 bombs produced - one used for testing, and the other two dropped on Japan. Interestingly, Nagasaki was of a design that had never been tested, the actual live dropping was the first test of it - noone was 100% sure it would work.

Originally posted by picard_is_actually_a_grey


Theres never been a nuclear bomb to date thats failed to go off.

Sorry thats just wrong. Even in the US Some devices that were tested failed to produce any noticeable explosion (some by design, some not)

www.radiochemistry.org...

www.antenna.nl..." target="_blank" class="postlink">www.antenna.nl...://www.antenna.nl/wise/5 36/5214.html

Theres also information thats suggest India's 4th and 5th nuclear test infacted failed.

www.fas.org...

Countries just dont like to brag about a failed nuclear test

I think Kim is a different creature, He likes to keep the world in uncertainty.

Uncertainty makes foreign policy advisors sweaty and indecisive (just what he wants) more than knowing he got just 2 bombs or something. Actually he could be waiting for somebody to get overthere and call his bluff.

He deliberately nurtures his image of slightly unpredictable sycophant, the world must know he might or might not be crazy enough to cuase a lot of nuclear misery.

Remids me of Khadaffi really, he was also seen as slightly crazy and unpredictable, but it turned out he is one of the most long-ruling and rational leaders in the middle-east, signing oilcontracts with the UK/USA while putting the Lockerbie thing under the carpet...

Kim might be crazy, but he is not stupid...


[edit on 17-2-2005 by Countermeasures]

[edit on 17-2-2005 by Countermeasures]

Originally posted by Countermeasures
I think Kim is a different creature, He likes to keep the world in uncertainty.

Uncertainty makes foreign policy advisors sweaty and indecisive (just what he wants) more than knowing he got just 2 bombs or something. Actually he could be waiting for somebody to get overthere and call his bluff.

Kim may be known as "crazy Kim" but he knows how to make countries sweat. If he tests a bomb, it means he has one, if he doesnt, he creates doubt over if he has one or not. The more the "does he, doesnt he" goes on, the more attention North korea will be getting.

The only attention that Kim and NKorea will be getting is from China. The US gave response to Kim already, remember?
Refresher: No.




seekerof

Maybe Kim in fact only has one bomb and testing it would reduce his arsenal to 0. Maybe the CIA knowns this as well and is why the idea of testing one is being brought up so that they can eliminate the threat after its gone? So many possibilities, so little factual basis. Ahh well maybe one day we'll find out after hes dead. Anyone know the probabilites of a rock just falling out the sky and hitting Kim on the head

Good thread! North Korea's "Dear Leader" is crazy as a fox. He knows that we know, he may just have one or two. His recent statement of having one puts forth the assumption that he actually does. In that I mean he will play that hand for all he can get. The problem for Kim jung Il is, that if he does'nt have what he said he doe's he just screwed the pooch. On the world stage he wants to make N.Korea a viable and stable nation and one worthy of having the respect that is granted other (civilized) nations. He is in infatuiated with the idea of power and will stop at nothing to gain it like a school-yard bully. Where have I heard that before? If I were asked doe's he have the nukes smart money would be saying yes. Granted at times his I.Q. rivals that of a bottle of H2O he is far from stupid. I feel his statement about this issue is coming from a standpoint of possesion. He knows that he is toast if he ever played that hand to the fullest. His dream I think is of anexing the Southern Pennisula because I ask what is China going to do? Nothing but let him play out whatever his plan is up to the point where it starts getting China P.O'ed. and then China moves in and overtakes both the N. and S.

I have seen intel that states NK has from 2 to 20 nuclear bombs. The conventional wisdom on this is more like 4 to 8. What ever version of accounts you look at, they most likely have more then one. Popping one off to demonstrate to the world would not leave them impotent.

World reaction to NK's statement that they had them was mixed. The world's reaction to an actual demonstration of their nuclear capabilities would be firm and resolute.

My bet... they'd be willing to talk to a confirmed nuclear Kim.

Originally posted by phreak_of_nature
I have seen intel that states NK has from 2 to 20 nuclear bombs.

Would you care to enlighten us as to the nature of that "intel?"