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8x more likely to win Powerball lottery than be shot in a school shooting!

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posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 12:22 PM
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The odds of hitting the jackpot for the powerball are 175 million to 1 (there are 175,223,510 possible Powerball combinations). The odds of of being shot in a K-12 school at 1 in 3.78 million over an entire year. 3.78 x 365 = 1.380 billion to 1 for a per day chance.

Odds of being shot at school in any one day 1.380 billion to 1
1.380 billion / 175 million = 7.9 more likely to hit powerball than be shot in any one day at a school or a 1.380 billion to 1

or

53 million students/teachers in K-12 * 365 = 19,345 million / 14 per year = 1.38 billion to 1

Deaths by lightening strikes from 1959 to 2003 in the US are 3,696 or 88/year - or 6.3x more likely to be killed by lightening than be killed in a school shooting. (taken from the 250 shooting deaths between 2000 & 2018)

news.nationalgeographic.com...


The point of these statistics are to show the difference between events being hyped in the media, causing it to seem more common than they actually are, and the relative rareness of the event. This is not to say that they are not tragic or horrible, but merely showing the randomness of such events and the calculated chance of such a thing happening. If people explained this to their children maybe they wouldn't be so worried going to school.

When I see posters of kids saying "am I next" or "don't shoot me" it is clearly meant to play on people's emotions and get a reactionary response. What is truly sad is that anyone would instill this fear into the children and use them as pawns to further an agenda. THAT is the truly tyrannical and insidious issue we are dealing with and THAT is what people should be very angry about.

And for those who are going to post about why am I posting about this topic - because there are obviously MANY people who have bought into the media narrative about this being an epidemic - judging from the crowds of the march. What I haven't seen is any rational explination of the issue and discussion of the true facts behind the issue, other than "gun bad", "happening ALL the time"...
edit on 3 26 2018 by DigginFoTroof because: (no reason given)




posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 12:29 PM
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Americans priorities are all screwed up. 1,300 people under the age of 18 are murdered by guns every year in this country. Illegal Immigrants kill more young people than school shooters. Where are the marches? Where is savior Hogg?

edit on 3/26/2018 by carewemust because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 12:32 PM
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Dude nobody cares about facts gotta appeal to mah emotional triggers.



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 12:33 PM
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originally posted by: DigginFoTroof
The odds of hitting the jackpot for the powerball are 175 million to 1 (there are 175,223,510 possible Powerball combinations). The odds of of being shot in a K-12 school at 1 in 3.78 million over an entire year. 3.78 x 365 = 1.380 billion to 1 for a per day chance.


Aren't there about 100 Powerball draws in a year? If so your math is way off. Make that 17.5 billion a year.



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 12:34 PM
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originally posted by: carewemust
Americans priorities are all screwed up. 1,300 people under the age of 18 are murdered by guns every year in this country. Illegal Immigrants kill more young people than school shooters. Where are the marches? Where is savior Hogg?


Wow, I didn't look into the illegal immigrant thing either, but I can see that easily.

What struck me to calculate these stats in this post and others, were the kids in the marches and their signs and if they are truly scared to go to school, then that is a very unwarranted fear and they should be "counseled" about the relative rareness of the occurrence, but I have a feeling that doesn't help the narrative or movement.



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 12:36 PM
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originally posted by: intrepid

originally posted by: DigginFoTroof
The odds of hitting the jackpot for the powerball are 175 million to 1 (there are 175,223,510 possible Powerball combinations). The odds of of being shot in a K-12 school at 1 in 3.78 million over an entire year. 3.78 x 365 = 1.380 billion to 1 for a per day chance.


Aren't there about 100 Powerball draws in a year? If so your math is way off. Make that 17.5 billion a year.




Well the way stats work is a 1:1 - one winner per drawing - one death per year. Now if you did every single powerball, winning that consecutively would be astronomical over a year. But no, the math I have is what the equal risk would be over a year.



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 12:36 PM
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originally posted by: carewemust
Illegal Immigrants kill more young people than school shooters.


LOL. Care to show your source for that?



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 12:43 PM
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originally posted by: LordAhriman

originally posted by: carewemust
Illegal Immigrants kill more young people than school shooters.


LOL. Care to show your source for that?


i think it is likely mexico in this case.



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 01:01 PM
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The media is simply taking its ques from the cig industry.

Do you really thing tobacco would be so big still if they hadn't been marketing to children 30 years ago?

Well, media wants power. Best way to get power is through fear. They've found a way to effectively keep all parents and students paralyzed in fear. Now, as those kids grow up to the age of reason where they're allowed to vote, they're predisposition to vote how they're told- vote for safe spaces. Vote against scary things.

The TV is telling them. Their facebook is telling them. Their friends and family are telling them. Be afraid- it's the thing you gotta do.
Hell, a year ago you couldn't walk by a watercooler without hearing about all the russian hackers in our voting booths. Takes almost no time at all for them to push a new narrative when people are conditioned to take their hints.


Roll over, citizen. Shake! Here's a treat... Ok, now, go vote!



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 01:14 PM
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How many people play the lottery as opposed to go to school?

Hint: This thing called "graduation," exists and students no longer have to go to school.

Not a surprise you didn't mention this, but hey, statistics don't lie - liars use statistics.



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 01:28 PM
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a reply to: DigginFoTroof

Is it too late to ban lightning?



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 01:36 PM
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a reply to: DigginFoTroof

I think based on the statistics, your odds of being shot in a school in Switzerland is.. zero. I like those odds better.



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 01:41 PM
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a reply to: DigginFoTroof


The odds of hitting the jackpot for the powerball are 175 million to 1 (there are 175,223,510 possible Powerball combinations). The odds of of being shot in a K-12 school at 1 in 3.78 million over an entire year. 3.78 x 365 = 1.380 billion to 1 for a per day chance.


Where are you getting this "3.78 million over the entire year" number from? Also, why did you times it by 365, when in your own words it was already "over the entire year"? Not to mention that kids don't go to school 365 days a year.

Admittedly, I'm no math whiz, nor do I have the the time to research the stats myself... but your equations seem completely flawed to me.
edit on 26-3-2018 by Subaeruginosa because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 01:42 PM
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originally posted by: RomeByFire


Not a surprise you didn't mention this, but hey, statistics don't lie - liars use statistics.







posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 02:11 PM
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originally posted by: Subaeruginosa
a reply to: DigginFoTroof


The odds of hitting the jackpot for the powerball are 175 million to 1 (there are 175,223,510 possible Powerball combinations). The odds of of being shot in a K-12 school at 1 in 3.78 million over an entire year. 3.78 x 365 = 1.380 billion to 1 for a per day chance.


Where are you getting this "3.78 million over the entire year" number from? Also, why did you times it by 365, when in your own words it was already "over the entire year"? Not to mention that kids don't go to school 365 days a year.

Admittedly, I'm no math whiz, nor do I have the the time to research the stats myself... but your equations seem completely flawed to me.


I didn't explain in the post, because it would have made it too long. I'm not here to teach statistics to the forum, I paid good money for my degree but I'll give a brief explination.

the 3.78 was explained in the 53 million students/staff in the US school system. 14 killings per year (250 between 2000 to end of 2017) 53 million / 14 = 3.78 million so 3.78 million to 1 getting killed over the ENTIRE year.

The stats are Jan - Dec. Killings happen in the summer, but much less frequently. they happen over Winter break at events, but less frequently. So the year was used.

53 million people x 365 days = 19.345 billion - that is 19+ billion person days at school per year between students/staff - that includes breaks, weekends, holidays. If you want the "school year" then take the total and 1/2 it (180 days vs 365 days). Students and staff are at schools after hours, on weekends, during summer, etc (not all , but some at times).

19.345 billion person days / 14 killings avg per year = 1.380 billion to 1
If you want to say strictly only school days (which isn't really the same) then 700 million to 1.

The lottery is one ticket - one drawing - one winner a 175 million to 1 odds for Powerball (look it up). Yes it is one day, one drawing, but is also one death/killing. I'm not going to explain why but that is how relational statistics works. If you question it, ask someone you trust if that is correct. It's more embarrassing to be wrong than it would be to lie about the way it works. Trust or not, I don't care.



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 03:02 PM
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I must be jinxed.

Tried for years never won the lottery.

Haven't tried getting shot either.

Still haven't succeeded.



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 03:06 PM
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a reply to: DigginFoTroof


I didn't explain in the post, because it would have made it too long. I'm not here to teach statistics to the forum, I paid good money for my degree but I'll give a brief explination.


Well ok... See, I don't have a fancy little degree or nothing like that and am just a humble factory worker... so I probably have no idea what I'm talking about here.

But, wouldn't it be much easier (and actually more accurate) to use your numbers by saying on average theirs 14 fatal shootings at US schools per year and an average of 53 million students... So 53,000,000 divide by 14= 3,785,714

So basically, 1 out of every 3.7 million US students will be murdered by a gun while attending school.

You could even go further and use the average stats of students who were injured by a firearm (per year), well attending school... Or, what if you used the stats of how many students were witnesses to a school shooting, while attending school?

imo, this little statistic game on school shootings, is probably not a wise path for the pro-gun lobbyists to take to prove their point... lol.



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 03:23 PM
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Yaya and there's a better chance of being struck by lightning than winning the lottery. In a practical sense stats are useless for these purposes.



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 03:49 PM
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a reply to: Subaeruginosa

Boy, if only I had thought to state it like that (roll eyes). Look at the post or the other one with the exact description as you describe. There are more than one way to get the same stats, it just depends how you execute the same equation, but same results.

It's not proving any side. It's proving that the media's numbers and hype don't add up with the real numbers.



posted on Mar, 26 2018 @ 04:23 PM
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I'd rather take the loss than the bullit.



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