We probably won’t hear from aliens. But by the time we do, they’ll be dead

In an effort to update the 1961 Drake Equation, which estimates the number of detectable, intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way, physicist Claudio Grimaldi and colleagues calculated the area of the galaxy that should be filled with alien signals at a given time (SN Online: 11/1/09).

The team, which includes Frank Drake (now a professor emeritus at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, Calif., and the University of California, Santa Cruz), assumed technologically savvy civilizations are born and die at a constant rate. When a civilization dies out and stops broadcasting, the signals it had sent continue traveling like concentric ripples on a pond. Part of the Milky Way should be filled with these ghost signals.

Source: We probably won’t hear from aliens. But by the time we do, they’ll be dead

You may be asking, what does this really mean?
Does it mean there are no alien civilizations still alive for us to find?

No, in short it means.....

“If the civilization emitted from the other side of the galaxy, when the signal arrives here, the civilization will already be gone,” says Grimaldi, of the Federal Polytechnical School of Lausanne in Switzerland.

However, the size of the universe is so vast, that there is a distinct possibility we will find proof of alien life existed, via their radio transmissions (if we survive long enough). But, there seems to be a gap in the original equation. So, they are updating the famous Drake Equation to take into account the possibility of both finding proof of life and that life still being alive at the time we discover their transmissions.

Surprisingly, the team also calculated that the average number of E.T. signals crossing Earth at a given time should equal the number of civilizations currently transmitting — even if the civilizations we hear from aren’t the same ones presently broadcasting. Grimaldi is now working on a paper about what it means that we’ve found none so far.

Flag for starting an interesting thread. However, advanced civilizations probably use very advanced methods of communication like particle entanglement. I doubt very much if they use any part of what we call the electromagnetic spectrum because of the speed and distances involved. My best,

You could be correct. Perhaps that also needs to be factored into the Drake Equation as well. The sliding scale of communications technology.

a reply to: Krakatoa

While this is very interesting, it fails to take into account a lot, including our minimal understanding of a civilizations lifecycle. We have only had one test subject, ourselves, and we could very well be an exception instead of the rule.

As for communication goes, we currently communicate at the galactic equivalent of shouting across a forest, our signal(voice) is sent out in every direction and anyone with ears will be able to hear it. I imagine that there is a way to make a “galactic phonecall”, where the signal is sent from sender directly to receiver without delay or anyone else being able to detect it’s even happening.

Takes time for a democratic decision among Earths inhabitants to categorize an alien from the evidence left behind.
I'm sure there have been some that have visited Earth, lived their short lives, and died undiscovered their remains being eaten by animals. Its not like they could procreate with humans.

Its pure arrogance to think that we can gauge how long another civilization will exist. Just because we only have 900 years left according to Stephen Hawking (r.i.p.), doesn't mean that many civilizations are as ________as humans.

Contrary to popular belief, radio signals decay into static at these vast distances.

Drake's equation was not an equation.
It was an example of how the Laws of Probability could be used in Astronomy
Rumor has it if you add all the factors possible that allowed intelligent life on Earth , you wind up with an empty Universe.

We've heard from aliens.

No one cares.

I'd move on. It's too toxic of a subject still, for public dissemination.

I figured out that we received an artificial signal months ago.

I've knocked on every available door, emailed, and talked to everyone of every possible reporting avenue for that type of find.

Even SETI wouldn't give me 2 minutes. No one cares about the subject. It is a mockery and a failure of humanity. (And by this, I'd like to add, I am directly calling BOTH the subject of contact AND SETI a mockery and a waste of resources. You are too busy listening to the stars. to listen to the one guy that can give you direct proof. Don't even bother talking to me Seth or SETI. I'm turning my findings over to the DOD and DARPA tomorrow, because I can't trust it to a bunch of bumbling idiots.)

To be 100% clear. I tried the proper channels for this information. Those channels have had their lines cut. No one touches the subject.

I can't just post this on the internet freely, or provide the information to the public because I don't want to be arrested.
It can be construed as providing potential weaponry to a foreign power. The signal I found was produced by a civilization that was able to harness more energy than every single bomb that has ever exploded on Earth, since we invented things that went boom. If any of this signal contains information about that tech, I can not freely distribute something that would be magnitudes more deadly than a fusion bomb.

DOD, DARPA, that's it. I tried the Universities. I tried the observatories. I tried SETI. I even tried MUFON for crying out loud, and I hate those guys.
They are all cool when you talk about signal analysis, but when you mentioned that you actually found something? No returned phone calls. No returned emails. You become an academic leper. Know what's keeping science from progressing? Science.

a reply to: FlyingFox

As a direct reply to you.

FRB121102 didn't.

Firstly.

Secondly.

There are methods that a radio signal can be hardened for deep space travel, ESPECIALLY if you have K2+ levels of energy at your disposal.

We have not yet done it.

We will. If others could do it, it's been done.

It's never been proven that after you die you won't see them either..

originally posted by: FlyingFox
Contrary to popular belief, radio signals decay into static at these vast distances.

Whilst true for generic broadcast antennae (such as TV masts) due to the inverse square law- if you build something with more power and focus the outgoing transmission at a known target- distances of multiple light years are not unrealistic.

I wonder if we would be due for another tower of babel if we ever got together with aliens?

originally posted by: Krakatoa

In an effort to update the 1961 Drake Equation, which estimates the number of detectable, intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way, physicist Claudio Grimaldi and colleagues calculated the area of the galaxy that should be filled with alien signals at a given time (SN Online: 11/1/09).

The team, which includes Frank Drake (now a professor emeritus at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, Calif., and the University of California, Santa Cruz), assumed technologically savvy civilizations are born and die at a constant rate. When a civilization dies out and stops broadcasting, the signals it had sent continue traveling like concentric ripples on a pond. Part of the Milky Way should be filled with these ghost signals.

Source: We probably won’t hear from aliens. But by the time we do, they’ll be dead

You may be asking, what does this really mean?
Does it mean there are no alien civilizations still alive for us to find?

No, in short it means.....

“If the civilization emitted from the other side of the galaxy, when the signal arrives here, the civilization will already be gone,” says Grimaldi, of the Federal Polytechnical School of Lausanne in Switzerland.

However, the size of the universe is so vast, that there is a distinct possibility we will find proof of alien life existed, via their radio transmissions (if we survive long enough). But, there seems to be a gap in the original equation. So, they are updating the famous Drake Equation to take into account the possibility of both finding proof of life and that life still being alive at the time we discover their transmissions.

Surprisingly, the team also calculated that the average number of E.T. signals crossing Earth at a given time should equal the number of civilizations currently transmitting — even if the civilizations we hear from aren’t the same ones presently broadcasting. Grimaldi is now working on a paper about what it means that we’ve found none so far.

This is one of the most short-sighted statements since some dumb astronomer back in the 1800's claimed we'd already learned everything there is to know about space.. This guy is suppose to be educated? In less than 2 years a computer will be as smart as a human brain. In 30 years one computer will be smarter than all the human brains on earth. Just one computer. By 2045 we will be able to download our entire consciousness. By 2060 we will be able to upload our consciousness to synthetic bodies.. By 2100 humans will live forever in synthetic bodies..

Where does this guy get his stupid stupid insight from?

Completely ignoring the fact that advance civilizations would spread across the universe.. and to believe they all simply disappear after a given time... is just lazy talk.. when humans start colonizing other planets in the next 200 years.. things will start going faster and faster in regards of colonization and more humans and better healthcare and tech.

originally posted by: Archivalist
We've heard from aliens.

You are too busy listening to the stars. to listen to the one guy that can give you direct proof. Don't even bother talking to me Seth or SETI. I'm turning my findings over to the DOD and DARPA tomorrow, because I can't trust it to a bunch of bumbling idiots.)

To be 100% clear. I tried the proper channels for this information. Those channels have had their lines cut. No one touches the subject.

I can't just post this on the internet freely, or provide the information to the public because I don't want to be arrested.
It can be construed as providing potential weaponry to a foreign power. The signal I found was produced by a civilization that was able to harness more energy than every single bomb that has ever exploded on Earth, since we invented things that went boom. If any of this signal contains information about that tech, I can not freely distribute something that would be magnitudes more deadly than a fusion bomb.

DOD, DARPA, that's it. I tried the Universities. I tried the observatories. I tried SETI. I even tried MUFON for crying out loud, and I hate those guys.
They are all cool when you talk about signal analysis, but when you mentioned that you actually found something? No returned phone calls. No returned emails. You become an academic leper. Know what's keeping science from progressing? Science.

I saw you post something about this a couple of days ago... I'm having a hard time believing that people are ignoring you HERE, let alone SETI etc...

I am super interested in hearing how this plays out. Don't you have someone within the scientific community that knows you and is willing to back you up? A college professor or someone with a phd you could convince to help you get this to someone besides the DOD?

So basically if aliens exist we're so far removed from each other that we'll never meet up or establish contact.

Interesting. Almost like it was intended that way?

yeah get it big distance , lightspeed maximum Steven hawkstein said it so true. Scientists are so open in their research and a Drake Equotation with parameters based on incomplete probably false data to top it off.
Aliens dead , well yeah , there never were any just algea in space. News is very reliable these day.

You become an academic leper. Know what's keeping science from progressing? Science.

Really well no ! Not science ! Real Science is awesome , but what the public sees is the filtered and dulled down version.

The same old rockets , and endless search for particles that Homer Simpson has discovered years before (sadly no joke). Science may only find stuff that make people eventually passive and dependent. Public science Progress is controlled and customized to maintain this society at an level so that humanity can be controlled and isn't a threat.

Fill the Cern collider with mercury might be fun... well that isn't science isn't it ?

"But by the time we do, they’ll be dead" ???
yes! they will make contact after they are dead!

humans are sick and evil.
they put kittens & babies in a microwave oven for fun?
they Dont look after there old and sick.
can not build for s$£%!