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Mid Term Elections?

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posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 12:39 PM
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a reply to: Numbers123

It won’t have ANYTHING to do with shutdowns and very little to do with trump..

Ask yourself why we almost ALWAYS have 2 terms of a Democrat and 2 terms of republicans??


Because people get mad at and blame those in power..

That is why after 200+ years we haven’t ended up with one party rule..

I think this will effect the GOP at an even more accelerated rate. Since they based their entire platform on conspiracy theories about obama and hillary.


Well conspiracy theories ONLY benefit your side if you are not in power.. once your in power all credit and blame is on your side for better or worse..

So yes the democrats will gain seats until they retake power . Then they will start losing seats until the other side takes power..

Wash, rinse, repeat.

And we have a couple centuries to compare the trend to.




posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 12:41 PM
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a reply to: Mach2

BWAHAHAHA

That is hilarious..



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 12:45 PM
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a reply to: JoshuaCox

So how many times has it not been like that I would love to see the stats.



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 12:47 PM
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a reply to: nwtrucker

And now those republicans are going to use youabd trump to pass the GOP agenda, then blame it all on trump and claim “they were never real republicans..”



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 12:53 PM
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originally posted by: JoshuaCox
a reply to: Numbers123

It won’t have ANYTHING to do with shutdowns and very little to do with trump..

Ask yourself why we almost ALWAYS have 2 terms of a Democrat and 2 terms of republicans??


Because people get mad at and blame those in power..

That is why after 200+ years we haven’t ended up with one party rule..

I think this will effect the GOP at an even more accelerated rate. Since they based their entire platform on conspiracy theories about obama and hillary.


Well conspiracy theories ONLY benefit your side if you are not in power.. once your in power all credit and blame is on your side for better or worse..

So yes the democrats will gain seats until they retake power . Then they will start losing seats until the other side takes power..

Wash, rinse, repeat.

And we have a couple centuries to compare the trend to.


Personally, I'd much prefer Libertarian and Green than Democrats and Republicans.



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 12:54 PM
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I'm not sure anyone can make a good prediction on the mid-terms at this point. Too many variables in play, and some could go either way. This is how I see things right now, though.
  • The DACA issue looks like it will play out well for Trump at this stage. He has a lot of Republican opposition due to his acceptance of a path to citizenship, but I think he's on the right side of the issue. Of course, Trump isn't running, so some Republicans could likely find this is a negative for them. I haven't checked but I suspect that the Republicans making the real noise on this are not up for election (Senators). On the other hand, the Democrats have an uphill battle to climb... Trump just offered them a sweet, sweet deal, and yet the Democratic leaders are still balking and trying to turn sweet to sour. I don't think that will work out well for them, or for their rank and file trying to get re-elected.

    Advantage: Republican, but only slightly.

  • Corruption is likely going to be a major issue. This one is tricky, because corruption is rampant on both sides of the aisle. I think the Democrats have an uphill battle because of the Clinton scandals still fresh in the minds of the voters, but they also have the best demonization machine going. Their one weakness is money - last I heard, the Republicans were raising much more capital than the Democrats. Demonization takes a lot of money, and the Democrats are going to have to step up their fundraising considerably to afford to use their usual tactics. Add in the fact that much of the voting public is becoming anesthetizedto the cries of "racist,""sexist," "homophobe," and the like, and the uphill money battle becomes even more pronounced.

    Advantage: Democrats

  • The economy is as always a top priority to voters. the Democrats have completely lost on this issue. There are two areas of attack being used against the Republicans: that it was all due to Obama, and that it's not good enough. The former has some traction now, but I expect that traction to slip as time goes on. The latter is completely at odds with the former, and at odds with what the American public will see firsthand as time goes on... it is a failed tactic waiting to die.

    Advantage: Republicans

  • The wall could have been the Democrat's major selling point, but they have sort of stuck their feet in their mouth on this issue up to their elbows... it's almost as though the Democrats have been taking lessons from Pat Robertson on how to say the wrong thing! Schumer has really played this one about as badly as I have ever seen a politician play it. First he offered the wall before DACA was even being considered in the Senate (although reports are that he was offering only a fraction of the needed funds), and then he states that the only real opposition they have to the wall is the cost. It is very easy to refute that argument, seeing as the wall is expected to cost 2.5% of the entitlement budget which is inflated in part from giving entitlements to illegal immigrants. If Schumer loses control as the Senate Minority Leader to someone less, shall we say, Robertson-esque, the Democrats may be able to mitigate the damage.

    Advantage: Republicans

  • Infrastructure is expected to be the other big issue during 2018 (along with immigration), and if the Republicans can get a good solution to Trump's desk, it will be another boost to the economy an feather in the Republican's hat. I expect to see resistance in the Senate, which is itself going to be a bad public image for the Democrats. The one bipartisan issue that has been touted as such is infrastructure, and if the Senate holds even that up, they will have earned a solid reputation in the minds of everyone but the most stubborn pundits of obstructionists only. No one wants someone to just sit and do nothing, and this will tarnish the Democratic label.

    Advantage: Republicans

  • I do not expect an October Surprise this time... I expect a May Surprise, a June Surprise, a July Surprise, an August Surprise, a September Surprise, an October Surprise, and maybe an early November Surprise! And I would not be surprised to see multiple Surprises in a single month. I am expecting major corruption charges against both parties, and major announcements from the DoJ concerning the prosecution of Obama administration officials. Congress is being stymied by the DoJ and FBI already, and the only reasonable explanation why is that the DoJ is playing their cards close and biding their time for maximum effect. No idea who will be the targets, but I expect the harder the Democrats play the demonization card, the higher the officials named in indictments will be.

    Advantage: None

  • History shows that the Congress should swing back Democratic. But history does not address the exact issues we are experiencing right now. The division in the country, as well as the rhetoric surrounding that division, is completely unprecedented. Still, given the Democratic successes with demonization and the number of people who apparently still maintain extreme hatred of the President, I expect this to fall in favor of the Democrats.

    Advantage: Democrats

  • The Main Stream Media will play a huge role as always. The Republicans have Fox News as their cheerleaders, and Fox News is presently the highest rated of the major news outlets. However, the Democrats have NBC, CNN, HLN, ABC, CBS, MSNBC, MSN, and a few others on their team, and together these may well exceed Fox News' viewership. Trump has done a masterful job of introducing the "fake news" meme into the minds of the public, but it may not be enough.

    Advantage: Democrats
In short, I give the Republicans a slight advantage at this time. That could all change with the next news cycle, of course, but right now I expect the Republicans to hold control of both houses.

TheRedneck



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 12:57 PM
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a reply to: testingtesting

Almost on the button..

Bush Sr. Only had one term, but besides that it has been pretty flippin stable..


D) Obama 2 terms

R) Bush Jr. 2 terms

D) Clinton 2 terms

R) bush Sr 1 term

R) Regan 2 terms

D) Carter 1 term

R) Nixon 1 term?

D) LBJ 2 terms

D) JFK 1 term

R) Eisenhower 2 terms

D) Truman 2 terms

D) FDR 2 terms



It’s just inconsistent enough where people cant say it was pre planned lol.. but the trend is obvious.





edit on 28-1-2018 by JoshuaCox because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 01:09 PM
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originally posted by: JoshuaCox
a reply to: testingtesting

Almost on the button..

Bush Sr. Only had one term, but besides that it has been pretty flippin stable..


D) Obama 2 terms

R) Bush Jr. 2 terms

D) Clinton 2 terms

R) bush Sr 1 term

R) Regan 2 terms

D) Carter 1 term

R) Nixon 1 term?

D) LBJ 2 terms

D) JFK 1 term

R) Eisenhower 2 terms

D) Truman 2 terms

D) FDR 2 terms



It’s just inconsistent enough where people cant say it was pre planned lol.. but the trend is obvious.





Bush seniors one term was an extension of Reagan's two terms, and he would have won a second if Ross Perot would not have garnered so many Republican votes.

Nixon won two terms. Ford finished his second. FDR served 3 terms, and died in his fourth. LBJ actually only won 1 term. If you're going to play historian, at least get it right.
edit on 1282018 by Mach2 because: Accuracy



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 01:15 PM
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I a reply to: TheRedneck

Great analysis, very thorough.

My curiosity is I suspect A LOT of Trump voters didn't vote FOR Trump as much as they turned out to vote against HRC. Those voters sat out the Obama elections because they don't support RINOs. That could be a big problem for the House seats because, as is the case in my district, our so-called Republican Representative is more a Democrat than a Republican and because of his voting record, many will not vote for him again, in fact, this is a District that is 70% Latino and a Latina is challenging him in the March primary. She probably won't make it because of lack of funds, and that being the case, I expect the Democrats to take the seat.

A whole lot of this will be about turn-out.



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 01:29 PM
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a reply to: TonyS

Thank you.

I saw a YouTube video a while back (can't seem to find it right now) that I thought explained the Trump win very well... it wasn't that people voted for Trump himself as much as it was people believed him over Clinton and voted for his policies. The movement that propelled him into the White House was about the policies,not the man. That's why all the attacks have slid right off his back, and why his endorsement of Luther Strange in the recent Alabama Primary didn't work... Moore was more in line with the movement, which is strictly anti-establishment.

So I expect better turnout than a lot of people are predicting,especially in areas that have an establishment candidate running.

I also expect to see a lot of incumbent losses in the Primaries this time around, because of that. Even with the incumbent advantage, the mood of the country is as extreme as I have ever seen it.

In the end, though, R/D divisions are not the only factor. I was happy enough to see Jones vote to stop the shutdown recently, I called his office to thank him. I opposed him strongly in the election, but I am glad to say maybe I was wrong. As long as he votes for what is good for Alabama and the country, I really don't care what color underwear he wears.

And I think most Americans feel the same way.

TheRedneck



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 01:33 PM
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If 2016 showed us anything, right now it is too early to say and the final statement will be made about late November when the votes are confirmed and the new congress people are heading to DC to start the new term and congress.

This midterm, where a majority of congress is up for reelection, is one that is going to be hot and hard this year.

One of the reasons why this is going to be far harder this year, is that both Parties are having to flood the field with candidates to win the elections. IN some states, what was once a few, is now being increased, and it is going to be rather interesting to watch as both political parties, are no longer going to be able to rely on being a Republican or a Democrat and the National parties are going to be hard press on who to back with money. They do have an finite supply of donors.

However, the real winner of this election will be the ones who can manage to get those who did not vote in the 2016 election to get up and actually to the poles to vote, to participate in the election.



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 01:37 PM
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originally posted by: angeldoll
a reply to: DBCowboy

Trump is one-dimensional. Most of us are more sophisticated than that in our thinking, preferring a full range of
healthy functionality. And yes, that includes knowing right from wrong, and the ability to show compassion.



The democrat party knows right from wrong, but preaches for everyone else to do right, while they continually do wrong.

The means it's a full range of hypocrisy, while they still get paid.



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 01:37 PM
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a reply to: Numbers123

Probably depends on what is in the memo and if they release it or not. If it is as bad as they say it is, dems could lose even more seats in November.



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 02:14 PM
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a reply to: TheRedneck

That could very well be the case.

Midterms are, generally, a referendum on policy, not party or the man sitting in the office.

Obama was immensely popular, personally, yet six of his eight years in office, his was the minority party in Congress.

I guess we'll see what we see come November.



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 02:30 PM
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a reply to: TheRedneck
Excellent presentation!


I would add one advantage that Republicans will enjoy is fund-raising. Democrat fund-raising is at its lowest level in our lifetime. Add to that their lowest level of new voters since the post-Carter years and you can see the uphill trek the Democrats are facing. The rank and file Democrats are seeing their leadership act like juveniles and are not going to continue to support them financially or at the voting booth.

Example: Our county is about two to one registered Democrats and yet we have in office currently, a Republican county executive, a Republican State Rep, a Republican State Senator and a full slate of Republicans in federal offices. Hmmm, how did this happen? That is exactly what the local (and regional and state) Democrat leadership has been asking themselves. How did it happen that our State Legislature turned Republican after a century of Democrat rule? How did a businessman with little to no political experience defeat the Democrat machine to become governor? Now the youngest members of the party might not be able to figure it out but those who have been around for a bit have watched the slow slide and realized that something must change. But nothing did change and the Commonwealth kept sliding downward on the issues that matter to the rank and file---jobs and business. Democrat leadership lined up behind Hillary Clinton with her societal issues and were handed their hats.

As one Democrat county chairman said recently: "We have the Bernie faction and the Hillary faction and neither of them represent Democrats so how are we to rebuild?"

edit on 28-1-2018 by diggindirt because: correction



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 03:09 PM
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a reply to: diggindirt

I did mention the lack of funds, but only in passing. Of course, one should remember that even though fund-raising is down right now, some of the wealthiest people in the world are staunch Democrats. Oprah comes to mind as a quick example... and of course, the Clintons are on that list, too. That may be the Democrats' saving grace.

I think most people have either forgotten or are too young to remember the "Solid South"... it used to be a given that every state in the Southeast would vote Democratic. Presidential candidates didn't even bother visiting. The Democratic Primary was considered to be the election. I can remember a two-page ballot with maybe three Republicans combined on it. Not a single one won.

The first Republican I, or anyone in my immediate family, ever voted for was Reagan. The only reason that happened was Carter's incompetence in the job, and the slow slide away from traditional values that was just beginning. The Democrats used to be for the working man/woman and the downtrod, while the Republicans were said to be for the wealthy. That is no longer the case. Democrats have abandoned the workers in action, if not in their talk. Instead, they now pander to every minority they believe they can wrangle a vote from, while secretly acting to support the elite of their party. The establishment Republicans are still concerned for the wealthy, but there is a new breed of Republican, a'la Reagan, who purports to be for equality for everyone, minority and majority. That is where I see Trump.

We never actually left the Democratic Party... the Democratic Party left us. There's not much choice left in a two-party system when that happens.

TheRedneck



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 04:49 PM
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originally posted by: Mach2

originally posted by: kurthall

originally posted by: Irishhaf
a reply to: angeldoll

Our other real option was a cold calculating criminal with the emotional range of what does it matter now as long as it did not have an effect on her personally.


We knew exactly what we were gonna get with her and enough of America said no thank you we will take a chance on the other guy. (and 1 year is not enough information to judge the guy on)





When trump took office the stock market was doing great, as was unemployment. Was it or was it not? trump is riding the Obama wave. T

Trump U is not all I got. How bout trump lying from day one about RUSSIA? Did you or did you not hear trump say, OVER AND OVER he did not order Muller Fired and it was FAKE NEWS? He is a liar plain and simple.






Over three million people say you are WRONG....trump U should have told you that. trump would gladly take your money for NOTHING in exchange. Lawsuits he said he would not settle, he did. DERP....He is a crooked, idiot. I suggest you sign up for trump U and see where it gets U.

Trump U? That's what you got?

Personally, I think tax reform, and a stock market that has been setting records since election day are FAR more important than a bunch of ppl that flunked out of school. But every has their own priorities I su



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 05:03 PM
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originally posted by: kurthall

originally posted by: Irishhaf
I think the democrats make minor gains at best as long as nancy and chuck are calling the shots they will remain behind the 8 ball.



I would agree with you, if trump were smart, he is not. The biggest mistake the republicans have EVER made is making trump their choice in the 2016 election. In fact soon I am going to make a thread that will show all of you trump followers, how freaking crooked he is. Also, it will all be facts, not speculation. You all love to speculate over Hillary. Speculating and FACTS are not the same.







Look, no offence, but unless you can show he is more crooked than most politicians in DC right now, then you just sound butt hurt.



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 05:40 PM
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a reply to: TheRedneck




We never actually left the Democratic Party... the Democratic Party left us.


That's exactly what I said when I left the party in the early '90s. But I didn't join the other party 'cause ...Bush.
My Dad was registered Dem all his life but it was LBJ who drove him to vote for Nixon. He had a lot of faith in Carter before Carter was actually in office. Heck, I still have the gold peanut I bought to show my support for Carter. As it turns out, a gold peanut was a pretty good investment. I still have some belief that Carter was probably the most honest guy we'd had in that position for a long time and that's why his own party wouldn't work with him.

Yes, we were all registered Democrats because if we wanted to have a voice in local elections we had to vote for a Democrat because it was rare as a snowfall in July to have a Republican on the ballot. Reagan changed that and our area began voting Republican, first in federal elections and then, over the past decade, in state and local elections.

So I became an independent and have never regretted it. If we have a good person running for office, Dem, Rep or Indie, I can work with and for them. I have good relationships with lots of members and leaders of both parties at the local and to some extent state levels because I've worked with them for over two decades and they know I won't play unless they can convince me that they're looking out for the citizens.

I find it interesting and just a bit redeeming that some of the same people who were upset when I left the party are now experiencing those same feelings that I had over 20 years ago. A call I got just last week from a big time labor leader just blew me out of the water. He says there is no reasoning with the state leadership. They can't even get a working web site up and going. Some are saying that the Executive Chair samples too much of his own product! (He is a brewery owner.)



posted on Jan, 28 2018 @ 06:12 PM
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a reply to: Mach2

That was off the top of my head ( I put the ? Next to Nixon because I thought it might have been 2 terms) and your corrections don’t even remotely refute my claim..

Has any one party ever held power for longer than 3 terms??

None that come to mind..

The people always turn on those in power..

Trump won’t be changing that..
edit on 28-1-2018 by JoshuaCox because: (no reason given)



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