Economic collapse, 2018? 2019?

a reply to: olaru12

welp, your assets are probably going to depreciate because for the time being the market will continue to rise, eventually if you wait long enough it'll work out for ya but for now your losing some gains by jumping to early

it's good to always be positioned against the market with a certain % of your portfolio from what I've read

a reply to: JAGStorm

Stocks went crazy before the Crash in 1929, too.

Charts

I have no doubt we're in for a crash in the next year.

What I am more concerned about is how the government will respond. If Trump stays true to his conservative agenda then he will do the opposite of W and BO instead of bailing out companies with failed business strategies.

I'd prefer a quick recovery compared to the general malaise we've had from 2008 - 2017.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: olaru12

welp, your assets are probably going to depreciate because for the time being the market will continue to rise, eventually if you wait long enough it'll work out for ya but for now your losing some gains by jumping to early

it's good to always be positioned against the market with a certain % of your portfolio from what I've read

When has supply side economics ever worked. This market won't be a simple correction, it will be a disaster.

And if the pattern holds true, Trump will have his WAR, a big one.

Glad I don't have any kids.

a reply to: JAGStorm

It is not how I see it.

Trump has ditched a lot of parasitical stuff and red tape.

The U.S Economy is looking leaner and greener than I have seen it for a long time. All the signs are good. You are getting stronger.

I am worried about the UK. The UK is looking bleak. It is all shut down. It is more interested in sex scandals than the economy. It has finally gone up its own place where the Sun don't shine. Every day it is sex scandal this, sex scandal that. They have gone insane. They spend all the news on little girls crying in their hundreds about what the nasty men did to them. It is quite ludicrous.

The UK now depends on the U.S totally. Where it goes the little lamb UK must follow bleating pathetically, while at the same time treating the President of the country who's teet they suckle on like dirt.

First they were the sexual abusers and now they are the sex police. #ing morons. Britain is burnt toast.

America and Israel are doing great. I envy you.

No pleasing you lot. If the economy is a mess you moan. When it is doing grand you get all paranoid. You are funny.

a reply to: olaru12

considering we have a very anti small business government currently nationwide and our government has all but given up trust busting and has been bailing the big businesses out for years yeah of course it's not working

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: olaru12

considering we have a very anti small business government currently nationwide and our government has all but given up trust busting and has been bailing the big businesses out for years yeah of course it's not working

Do you think the neocons and the zionist bankers are going to allow any changes? Do you think Trump has the guts to take them on?

a reply to: olaru12

well, judging by Lynn Rothschilds push for inclusive capitalism, somehow they are getting the message that heads are about to start rolling

check out her twitter and see what she's been pushing

a reply to: Revolution9

No. Wrong. Search our economic history. It's ups and downs-some big; some small. Then we go to war and really build it up.

You Britons, unfortunately, don't have the power of world economics but you do suffer as they suffer. Not the banking leaders of your past-that has gone global now and we are about to really hit a global letdown so hold on.

So am I off and just being overly pessimistic?

No.

All things are cyclical.

The cycle goes up.

The cycle goes down.

Economic collapse ?

Market correction not too far off in the distant future.

Then rinse and repeat.

I would guess late 19 is when the tumble begins. I think once it hits full strength, it will be pretty bad. I dislike Trump like a toothache, but I do wish him success, because his job is to ensure we are successful..so when a POTUS fails at that, its laughing at our misfortune.

There is always a major bust every 10-20 years. We are definitely due to let some air out of the bubble. I recall the dotcom bust. I graduated from business school with MBA in 2001. From 1999 to 2001, the economy was absolutely nuts. Companies were giving out cars, $100k signing bonuses, etc. I mean about 20% of my class dropped out to chase IPO riches in Silicon Valley.

The following year, it came crashing down. It kind of started summer 2001 and then just completely fell apart after 9/11.

Then I remember the housing bust. Once again, it was nuts. I work in the industry and realtor, mortgage lenders, etc were making big bucks. Things got over heated and it imploded.

Now we have the stock market getting out of control. One of my 401ks hit 21% return in 2017. These are hedgefund level returns. It simply is not sustainable.

I think one of the things that will make this crash painful is the debt levels of consumers. Too much credit card debt. Underwater car loans. Not too mention the student loan bubble.

All I am telling folks is to make sure you get your sh*t in order while you can. Get rid of any debt. Save up some money. Diversify any investments. Try to live frugally.

a reply to: toysforadults

Trade deficit. As long as our government can continue to issue debt we can pay for our imports with debt, because the rest of the world uses the dollar to buy oil, and set up bills of credit for trade between themselves.

It's basically the commercial banking network, SWIFT. But China and Russia are setting up an alternative system of payments outside the US dollar. If more countries and thus more trade uses their system, then less dollars are needed internationally. That makes it more difficult for our government to continue increasing the national debt.

a reply to: Teikiatsu

We had a severe depression in 1920-21 that was actually worse in terms of a collapse in GDP than the depression following the stock market crash in 1929. The reason you don't hear about it and the reason it was so short was because of the policies our government adhered to, basically free market policies.

They allowed the market to discount the mal-invested debts. As credit collapses economic activity collapses, but it clears out (through bankruptcy) the unpayable debts that are not productive. Conversely the depression following the 1929 stock market was prolonged by government policies because they didn't allow the market to clear out all the non-performing debt.

We need a market clearing depression, and if the government allowed it to occur unimpeded it would be short, painful but after a couple years we'd be back to 6-7% GDP growth yoy. We haven't had that kind of growth since the 60s.

originally posted by: SkeptiSchism
a reply to: Teikiatsu

We had a severe depression in 1920-21 that was actually worse in terms of a collapse in GDP than the depression following the stock market crash in 1929. The reason you don't hear about it and the reason it was so short was because of the policies our government adhered to, basically free market policies.

They allowed the market to discount the mal-invested debts. As credit collapses economic activity collapses, but it clears out (through bankruptcy) the unpayable debts that are not productive. Conversely the depression following the 1929 stock market was prolonged by government policies because they didn't allow the market to clear out all the non-performing debt.

We need a market clearing depression, and if the government allowed it to occur unimpeded it would be short, painful but after a couple years we'd be back to 6-7% GDP growth yoy. We haven't had that kind of growth since the 60s.

The worst thing we did during the '08 crash was bail out the banks and ZIRP. There were plenty of banks that didn't fail and they would have stepped in to pick up the ones that did.

The problem is that it is politically difficult to not do anything. Too many people expect government to come to the rescue even if the cure is worse than the disease.

originally posted by: Edumakated
I think one of the things that will make this crash painful is the debt levels of consumers. Too much credit card debt. Underwater car loans. Not too mention the student loan bubble.

All I am telling folks is to make sure you get your sh*t in order while you can. Get rid of any debt. Save up some money. Diversify any investments. Try to live frugally.

What I'm seeing is that spending seems out of control. I'm seeing a lot of people with very low incomes, spending like they have a no limit credit card. People buying crypto like mad, getting really involved in penny stocks, and buying much higher quality goods than normal (I live in a very low cost area, and our local Krogers has practically gone Whole Foods on us). I'm seeing people take out a second mortgage on their house to buy bitcoins, then leveraging those coins they have yet to cash out, to invest in more traditional assets. And most importantly I'm seeing available credit treated as if it's savings, while 40% of the population has less than $200 available in credit and zero in cash.

My future predictions are that we pay off peoples student loans. Give every credit account belonging to a US citizen a one time $500 payment to get people out of debt. Then go back to 0% interest. Even all that won't fix the problem when the auto bubble bursts though.

Tech definitely feels like a regional bubble to me too. I look at what's going on in Silicon Valley and wonder if they've all lost their damn minds. Technology is sound, but that area is plagued by a lot of high risk startups, and young developers working for them.

a reply to: Justso
There are securities that one can park their money into while the equities crash. They may not gain, or perhaps even slightly dip, but they will not be massacred the same way equities will suffer. Mining stocks could be pretty good as well though in that event.

a reply to: Aazadan
people are racking up tens of thousands in credit with 20% interest. I do not think dropping it down to 0% is going to help. They will seriously pile it on then.

originally posted by: SkeptiSchism
a reply to: Teikiatsu

We had a severe depression in 1920-21 that was actually worse in terms of a collapse in GDP than the depression following the stock market crash in 1929. The reason you don't hear about it and the reason it was so short was because of the policies our government adhered to, basically free market policies.

They allowed the market to discount the mal-invested debts. As credit collapses economic activity collapses, but it clears out (through bankruptcy) the unpayable debts that are not productive. Conversely the depression following the 1929 stock market was prolonged by government policies because they didn't allow the market to clear out all the non-performing debt.

We need a market clearing depression, and if the government allowed it to occur unimpeded it would be short, painful but after a couple years we'd be back to 6-7% GDP growth yoy. We haven't had that kind of growth since the 60s.

Yep, we're on the same page. Let the market find its own bottom and let the bad businesses fail while the stable businesses prosper. Lower taxes and increase interest rates. Give people more money to invest as they see fit.

No business is "too big to fail" though it may be too big to liquidate overnight.

a reply to: JAGStorm

With all the greatness being hailed,makes you wonder whats really going on,from what I surmise the powers are hell bent on a socialist society,with all the news and emphacise on race,religion,they want civil unrest,I think the economy will crash and like in the 30's people will lose homes to government because they can't pay taxes,I know they have it planned for Calif people will go from 1% tax to a 15% tax,homes here in Calif average about 500k,many up towards the million mark,so digging out an extra 70 k a year will drive most to bankrupcy,this is all planned,the minute we revolt,then comes in the UN soldiers

a reply to: Oldtimer2
which countries you think will be volunteering their soldiers for a UN mandate in America?? It won't be pretty, not by a long shot. I doubt anybody would even want to contribute. I am certain they would rather volunteer to work in Somalia than try and take on the US rebellion.