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Economic collapse, 2018? 2019?

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posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 05:48 PM
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I went through the recession of 2007 and something feels oddly similar lately. My family was hit hard and it forever
changed me, in the end for the better.

There is a lot of optimism right now, housing is going crazy, stocks are all up, employment is good.
For those of us old enough, we know this can't last forever.
My guess is Mid or late 2019. I think we are good this year, maybe a good time to stock up for next year!

So am I off and just being overly pessimistic?




posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 05:54 PM
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a reply to: JAGStorm

Well from what I've read, like Hussman and others, valuations are at historic highs. The market has never been priced this high, ever. This is the mother of all bubbles because the bond market has never corrected in over 40 years, it's the real monster.

So who knows how long it can go on, the fed is supposedly raising interest rates and that has popped the past 2 bubbles in 2000 and again in 2008 but other metrics say that easing is continuing. So I guess the fed is still making cheap credit available to the markets maybe via their proxy banks.

I guess it could go on another 2 years, some people say it will keep going up until 2020, but it seems to me that if China sells off our treasury bonds that would cause interest rates to rise faster than anyone anticipates.

There is the issue with the chinese future's oil contracts in yuan backed by gold bullion. The last time anyone tried to sell oil outside of the petro dollar system they got liberated by US and European freedom bombs, aka Iraq and Libya.

Interesting times, I can tell you for certainty that all economic activity is now generated by debt/credit meaning it's all fake and if we want to return to freer markets we need a serious correction, like up to 85% of current asset prices. And since the market has led the economy like a cart leads a horse for 40 years we have serious pain to work through to find the real economy, what it wants or needs to do.

But then again I am a perma bear always negative nedding about.

lulz



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 05:54 PM
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a reply to: JAGStorm

As a retired realtor from that 2008 debacle in real estate-and a few others-this quick escalation cannot last.

Our country is still not producing enough product and not shipping out enough product to continue this "supposed" economic success.

It's all just speculation and when the reality hits, and it will, we will be hurting. Just the way it always goes.

Be sure to sell high.



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 05:59 PM
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a reply to: Justso

Yah I've been thinking that the Trump bump has been an effort by Wall Street to unload stocks at these high prices on hapless and ignorant 'investors'.

I think what's driving the recent 20% ramp up since Trump got in office was oil, that is shale oil. Since 2008 most of our shale oil production has been financed, US energy companies have not made a dime profit and they are existing solely on bonds. They have up to $200 billion in bonds to roll in the next 4 years, and they produce no profit. Even if oil went to $100 a barrel again they wouldn't produce profit because the cost of production now rises in lock step with increase in the price of oil.

So this recent seemingly booming economy is all based on the drawdown of our oil reserves, we've been drawing them down since about last year that makes it look like the economy is using more oil, thus more production but actually the wells peaked and now they are drawing down the reserves and selling off.



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 06:07 PM
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I bailed out of the Market already and getting primed for the next spike in Au and Ag....



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 06:09 PM
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a reply to: olaru12

Steve St Angelo puts together some good vids, worth the watch IMO



His website: srsroccoreport.com...
edit on 24-1-2018 by SkeptiSchism because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 06:09 PM
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Here's an interesting perspective on what you're feeling.


edit on 24-1-2018 by Realtruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 06:14 PM
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a reply to: SkeptiSchism

The shale oil "joke" is a known factor by those in on the game.

More distressing is Wall Street's phony baloney selling to buyers who are desperate to go back and retrieve their 2008 losses; they think they are flying high-all those retirement accounts in the stocks ballooning and about to burst; and burst they will; sadly.

Everyone enjoy it while you can. Hard times coming-sorry for the doom and gloom-hope I'm wrong.



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 06:24 PM
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originally posted by: Realtruth
Here's an interesting perspective on what you're feeling.



This guy is partially correct a 'free market' will always have cycles, but our system is enabled by the fed continually pumping out cheap credit. Since the real economy is swamped with debt, most people have on average 95% debt to annual income the credit the fed pumps ends up flowing into asset bubbles.

So they create these artificial bubbles with cheap credit basically.

That's what this graph shows, it's the fed's prime rate or inter-bank lending rate. When Nixon closed the gold window interest rates spiked along with the price of gold, they peaked around 16% on 10-year treasury bonds and gold spiked to a little over $800 an ounce. Then Volker started forcing interest rates down and that started the continual degradation in credit quality. That has blown all these bubbles. You can see that on the chart over time as they lowered the rates to shove credit into the economy, then when inflation started to rise they raised rates and the bubbles popped.




posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 06:27 PM
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a reply to: Justso

Yah pension funds are hosed, they used to carry what 40% fixed assets like bonds but they promise 8% returns so they need greater than 8% returns to manage the funds so they all flock into stocks.

But the 10-year treasury bond has earned around 2% for years, and when stocks crash then all those pension funds will be insolvent basically.



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 06:39 PM
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welp, the federal reserve needs to do something about inflation but can't because wages haven't gone up enough to compensate for reducing dollar supply and overall demand for the dollar is low and will continue to be so especially with the crypto market

also no one is able to save money which also contributes to the abundance of dollar supply in the market
edit on 24-1-2018 by toysforadults because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 06:41 PM
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a reply to: SkeptiSchism

that's why I'm getting an education now, it's inevitable that they clear student debt to create market growth or find a solution to this problem



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 06:45 PM
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I've been concerned the entire time about people saying "the stock market keeps going up" and it constantly being put in our face by Trump and his supporters. If I've learned anything about the market (especially getting into cryptos) this constant parabolic growth cannot sustain itself, there has to be corrections. I just hope when it does happen its a slow decline and not a bubble that collapses at once, because that will be devastating. Unlike the crypto market we wont be able to bounce back from a market crash in weeks.



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 06:46 PM
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originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: SkeptiSchism

that's why I'm getting an education now, it's inevitable that they clear student debt to create market growth or find a solution to this problem


The solution to the problem IS a depression, and liquidate all the mal-invested debt and let the market price interest rates not the fed.

We've avoided the pain now for almost 20 years, that means the eventual correction just keeps getting bigger and bigger.

Kicking the can with your future.



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 06:53 PM
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a reply to: Realtruth

That was an excellent video, and I totally agree with all of his 5 points.



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 06:54 PM
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a reply to: SkeptiSchism

I'm originally from Illinois and maybe this is why I feel like I do. They have kicked that can as far as it will go.
Luckily we got out but the downward spiral is already happening there.



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 07:02 PM
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a reply to: SkeptiSchism

well, with the recent tarrifs on imports that should actually decrease our import export gap I forgot the technical term for it



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 07:04 PM
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As much as I would love to see Trump ruined by the economy I don't see it happening yet, barring a serious trade war, which may happen. A lot of economic strength is based on the confidence of consumers and businesses spending and investing and they are so brainwashed or in bed with Trump that they will never lose faith in him, no matter how fake or exaggerated the economy is.

If anything there may be a crash near the end of his term, like what happened with W Bush.



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 07:07 PM
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a reply to: CB328

Trump just cut a lot of taxes, then some of the world's largest corporations pumped over a billion dollars in liquidity into the market via bonuses

that will hit and increase the DOW for a while, it's not crashing next year that was essentially a stimulus plan except better because people got raises as well

all the companies that did that know that that money is coming right back to them anyway
edit on 24-1-2018 by toysforadults because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 24 2018 @ 07:14 PM
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originally posted by: Justso
a reply to: SkeptiSchism

The shale oil "joke" is a known factor by those in on the game.

More distressing is Wall Street's phony baloney selling to buyers who are desperate to go back and retrieve their 2008 losses; they think they are flying high-all those retirement accounts in the stocks ballooning and about to burst; and burst they will; sadly.

Everyone enjoy it while you can. Hard times coming-sorry for the doom and gloom-hope I'm wrong.


But Trumps trickle down will save us. Bring back mfg. and repair the infrastructure. You'll see....believe me....
Supply side economics always favors the working man...






edit on 24-1-2018 by olaru12 because: (no reason given)



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