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Pakistan will be failed state by 2015: CIA

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posted on Feb, 15 2005 @ 03:55 AM
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Pakistan will be a "failed" state by 2015 as it would be affected by civil war, complete Talibanisation and struggle for control of its nuclear weapons, premier US intelligence agencies have said in an assessment report.

Forecasting a "Yugoslavia-like fate" for Pakistan, the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in a jointly prepared Global Futures Assessment Report have said "by year 2015 Pakistan would be a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and complete Talibanisation".

"Pakistan will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement, divisive policies, lawlessness, corruption and ethnic friction," said the report quoted by former Pakistan High Commissioner to United Kingdom Wajid Shamsul Hasan in an article in the ' South Asia Tribune '.

Titled 'Will Pakistan Army invade Balochistan as per the NIC-CIA Plan', the former senior diplomat said "in the context of Balochistan, one would like to refer to the 2015 NIC report. It forecast a Yugoslavia-like fate for Pakistan.


More: source

[edit on 15-2-2005 by John bull 1]




posted on Feb, 15 2005 @ 04:14 AM
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There is no need to celebrate but u need to be worried. Do u wana live near a unstable country. The economic development India has had till date could be effected . The effect was seen when the region became nuclear, Investors and tourist stayed away.



posted on Feb, 15 2005 @ 04:52 AM
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Stealth Spy

It's good netiquette to make some kind of comment of your own instead of copying and pasting large tracts of other peoples work (which I've edited down)

Please edit this story and add your thoughts please.



posted on Jul, 2 2005 @ 09:53 AM
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I like your quote john bull..
I think that'll be the great war of the next century.. secularism vs. fundamentalism..



posted on Jul, 3 2005 @ 10:29 AM
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Well, one kind of fundamentalism only breeds another and the primary source of fundamentalism is islam and thus secularism will prevail with the end of islam.

Secularism will prevail only if it is mutual and reciprocative and this is something that is uncharacteristic of islam.


(Views are personal)



posted on Jul, 3 2005 @ 10:37 AM
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The Enlightenment---which is really the philosophy that has lifted humans from dreadful tyranny to a semi-decent life---arose in Christian countries, and even ones which were very religious.

After all, Britain saw the wars between Protestants and Catholics and subsequently the rise of the great Enlightenment philosphers.

There would be no peace or democracy today if the Christianity of the middle ages had remained (e.g. the pope still had divisons, in turnabout to Stalin's quip).

There needs to be a Reformation in Islam. And after that, secularization---which is distinct from a religious reformation.

Somehow Ataturk managed to do it in Turkey (it also was preceded by the full defeat of the Ottoman empire).



posted on Jul, 3 2005 @ 10:42 AM
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intresting source

i see you dont like muslims



posted on Jul, 3 2005 @ 10:48 AM
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Originally posted by bodrul
i see you dont like muslims


Its not that i dislike muslims but that i dislike islamic fundamentalism.

I am fraustrated by the fact that the majority of muslims do not reciprocate the secularism that is shown towards them.

I would like the world to be secular but i see islam as the largest stumbling block.

I must admit there are some people who do not fit the above discription but their numbers are so negligible that the same can be generalised to the whole relegion itself.

Look at another example : Organization of the Islamic Conference wants permanent UNSC seat for muslims

[edit on 3-7-2005 by Stealth Spy]



posted on Jul, 3 2005 @ 11:01 AM
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did a search for india failed state and came up with this

india a failed state one

google


first one is funny because
its a pak forum but with india as a failed state

and you being indian with pak being a failed state




also read the link you gave
all i say is so what?
they want to be repersented in the UNSC
and i dont really think its a bad idea
all perm members are christian and apart from china which is made of diffrent religions.
this would be a good thing for the OIC to have one member country to have a perm seat



posted on Jul, 3 2005 @ 01:46 PM
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bodrul just though you might want know that your terrorist gave the same amount of money as the rest of the world combined to you Muslim people when tragedy struck them.

Anyway the only way I see Pakistan becoming unstable and hostile is if the terrorists succeed in assassinating Musharif.



posted on Jul, 3 2005 @ 01:50 PM
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How does Islam need a reform? What would you like to see reformed? The problem is with most muslims they have less democracy and women rights mostly because of theire culture. They often ignore the parts of the qu'ran which give women equal rights because either they cant read or because they want to keep theire place.



posted on Jul, 3 2005 @ 01:53 PM
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Originally posted by WestPoint23
bodrul just though you might want know that your terrorist gave the same amount of money as the rest of the world combined to you Muslim people when tragedy struck them.


2 questions

1. how can it be my terrorists?
2. whats the secound part suppose to be ( second bold part )?

which targedy are you talking about?

[edit on 3-7-2005 by bodrul]



posted on Jul, 4 2005 @ 01:25 AM
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bordul, givng links to a pakistani forum is a ATS T&C violation.

Lets see you post the CIA call India a failed state.

There are hundreds of pakistani/bangladshi/islamic forums that call the US, UK, Israel and India failed states, and call the islamic world as prosperous and wealthy. Everyone knows what the ground reality is.

Musharaf has survived 3 close assasination attempts alredy and if a 4th one succeds, what do suppose will happen ?

and continueing your same logic, i would like to call you as someone who does'nt like non-muslims but i wont.

seriously will any sane peroson condone the acts of the terrorists ?



posted on Jul, 4 2005 @ 01:40 AM
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which targedy are you talking about?


So revealing that you don't know, perhaps you do not recall or never knew at all. Anyways I’m talking about the Tsunami disaster.



posted on Jul, 4 2005 @ 03:40 AM
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Considering this government are close friends with Pakistan and supplying them with training, money and weapons... going off America's track record, it's usually the 10 - 15 year mark that America turns on it's allies so this sounds about right.



posted on Jul, 4 2005 @ 04:12 AM
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Unfortunatly my first thought on reading this is "Look at the track record of American intelligence over Iraq, etc"

Just how realistic is this senario? based on their previous poor judgements, is this nothing moe than another political swipe at a nation?

No longer do I just accept it as truth when it comes with a CIA stamp.



posted on Jul, 4 2005 @ 05:17 AM
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Consider the source- Indian news. Judging by his tack on Muslims I'd say that our friend Stealth might be on the Hindu side of India's secularist vs Hindu Nationalist politics.

For the most part it's the Indian news covering this- nobody else sees this as noteworthy. That's because the Indians are blowing it out of proportion to fuel nationalist sentiments.
The transition from NIC reports to Indian military reports is clever, and slightly deceptive.


Further domestic decline would benefit Islamic political activists, who may significantly increase their role in national politics and alter the makeup and cohesion of the military—once Pakistan's most capable institution.


Note the speculative nature of the report. The report does not equivocate on the fact that Pakistan is in deep economic trouble and is falling behind India, but I do no see the words "complete talibanization" anywhere so far.
Not only that, but the report is also rather clear that this is not a good thing for India, although it does predict plenty of other good things for India.

The destabilization of Pakistan and Central Asia is bad for India. How do you think Turkmenistan's natural gas is getting to India? That's the whole reason we fought in Afghanistan! To get that gas through Central Asia to Karachi and then to India.
Not to mention the obvious problems that arise from Muslim fundies getting greater influence in the Pakistani military. Anybody up for a game of Global Thermonuclear War?

Edit to add quote

The threat of major conflict between India and Pakistan will overshadow all other regional issues during the next 15 years. Continued turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan will spill over into Kashmir
SNIP
The decisive shift in conventional military power in India's favor over the coming years potentially will make the region more volatile and unstable. Both India and Pakistan will see weapons of mass destruction as a strategic imperative and will continue to amass nuclear warheads and build a variety of missile delivery systems.



India, especially Hindu Nationalists, if they were thinking about the bigger picture, should be hoping for increased stability in Pakistan, hopefully extending North into central Asia, setting the stage for the development of economic interests there for India and Russia in order for friendship with Russia to serve as a stabilizing factor in Sino-Indian relations, unless of course they want to go to war with Pakistan- possibly a nuclear one- end up having to fight Russia-Afghanistan style occupations in Central Asia, and quite possibly find China extending its interests West, becoming a greater strategic threat to India should tensions there ever flare.

If you'd like to see the actual NIC report- which contains lots of good news for India but DOES NOT indicate in any way that the predicited instability is beneficial to India (keeping in mind that much of what I added above is my own analysis- not from the report)

You can find it here.
www.cia.gov...

It took a little doing- Indian papers are pretty good about hiding their sources. You usually get a descriptive attribution rather than a title from them.


Edit to add: There's a pretty fair chance that Netchicken's assessment is right. Later I'll dig up past NIC forecasts and see what was supposed to be going on at this time- to see how close or far off they have been in the past.

[edit on 4-7-2005 by The Vagabond]

[edit on 4-7-2005 by The Vagabond]



posted on Jul, 4 2005 @ 05:25 AM
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Originally posted by WestPoint23

which targedy are you talking about?


So revealing that you don't know, perhaps you do not recall or never knew at all. Anyways I’m talking about the Tsunami disaster.


never knew that
could you give me a source where it shows this?



posted on Jul, 4 2005 @ 05:30 AM
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Originally posted by Stealth Spy
bordul, givng links to a pakistani forum is a ATS T&C violation.

Lets see you post the CIA call India a failed state.


didnt know that

was showing how the same thing can be said about india
and also how its only a indian saource that is saying this

so its hardly reliable

also i hardly find the CIA reliable ( but feel free to post a link to a article by the CIA )


Originally posted by Stealth Spy
and continueing your same logic, i would like to call you as someone who does'nt like non-muslims but i wont.


i wont say your stupid but i feel you are
since i have hindu and christian and muslim friends
so if it was the case i didnt like non muslims why do i get along with them?so think what you like


[edit on 4-7-2005 by bodrul]



posted on Jul, 4 2005 @ 05:34 AM
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Originally posted by Stealth Spy
There are hundreds of pakistani/bangladshi/islamic forums that call the US, UK, Israel and India failed states, and call the islamic world as prosperous and wealthy. Everyone knows what the ground reality is.


hundreds wow
care to elabirate on that?
please post the links to the hundreds of forums or PM them to me

since you think its that much



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