originally posted by: Gazrok
already creeping back up. no telling what we wake up to though...
Trading markets is much like riding a horse.
When a novice tries to jump on the back of a horse, the animal bucks and twists, jumps around, and shakes, all in an attempt to shake the rider off.
The seasoned jockeys know how to ride the horse, and remain seated, calming the horse down, and the animal calmly paces across the landscape.
Recent bitcoin market activity suggests lots of novice traders are hopping on the crypto horse, and the market detects they are untrained riders, so
it bucks and shakes, attempting to throw off all the new arrivals.
This also suggests that the character of the market is changing, with the players being predominantly the more skittish inexperienced speculators,
looking for that quick buck, but can't really afford to lose the little coin they've invested in the crypto. This causes them to want to jump out the
minute something bad seems about to happen, hence the wild drops in the currency.
Now the seasoned traders, noticing the changing character of the market, will reverse their buy and hold strategy, and everytime the bitcoin
approaches the $20,000 mark, they'll quietly sell out more of their long term position.
They would have noticed, that all the seasoned traders that were going to buy bitcoin, would have bought bitcoin already, and there are no more long
term players out there left to enter the market. There are only these novice players, who are rushing for the quick buck outthere, and when these
novices enter the market it's time to exit.
The game right now for the seasoned traders is, sell the high, and avoid taking new positions. Wait for the shakeout.
Bitcoin should fall back below $1000 USD, then bounce around a bit, before finally settling somewhere between $1000 and $5000, where it will sit for a
couple years, until the market sees what effect all the other crypto do, and which one turns out to become the favorite.
Glad I didn't buy any bitcoin, and still glad I'm out.
I'm a buyer when bitcoin falls back below $100.