Keeping it real. . . . . The real unemployment rate

www.thebalance.com...

The real unemployment rate (U-6) is a broader definition of unemployment than the official unemployment rate (U-3). In November 2017, it was 8.0 percent. The real unemployment rate includes the underemployed, the marginally attached and discouraged workers.

The U-3 is the rate most often reported in the media. In the U-3 rate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics only counts those who have looked for a job in the past four weeks as unemployed.


The U-6 rate adds those who are marginally attached and discouraged. It also includes part-time workers who would prefer full-time jobs. For that reason, it is almost double the U-3 report.

......


In November 2017, the real unemployment rate (U-6) was 8.0 percent. That's almost double the widely reported unemployment rate (U-3) of 4.1 percent. Here's how to calculate both.

Yeah, the unemployment rate is going down. But we're not there just yet.

I didn't give Obama a pass when he touted numbers, I won't give Trump a pass either.

We're at 8.0%

It's better than it was, but we've still got a ways to go.

When I see anyone touting the unemployment numbers, I thought this thread might provide some accurate numbers.

I'm a Trump supporter, but I won't hold him to a different standard as Obama.




As always, never swim right after eating a meal. Always wait 30 minutes.

originally posted by: DBCowboy

As always, never swim right after eating a meal. Always wait 30 minutes.

Lies and disinfo!!!!

a reply to: DBCowboy

link

This shows 'true' unemployment also compared to the others and what is reported. Pretty cool graph. I am just happy it is still going in the right direction.

With a new corporate tax rate I am sure it will continue it's trend.

after a quick glance i was happy to see that it doesnt seem like they are counting all the retired as part of the number. lets see whats planned with the infrastructure plan thats been talked about. could pull that number down abit further hopefully.

I have to go shopping for a bit but I thought I'd at least try to bring some accuracy to the discussion.

Be back soon.

(Ho Ho Ho)

That is a very easy to understand article. It clearly shows what was really going on most of the Obama rein. It did get better just before Trump got in and continued on and lowered a tad during his presidency. It might have gotten better if they did not fight everything with twisted interpretations in the press to delay the creation of jobs by tying up the Republicans ability to get anything passed. I guess the Democrats are trying to sabotage Trumps administration from gaining jobs in this country, they know it would look bad for them and their power would wain. They have the press in their back pocket too, Democrats spend more on advertising than Republicans.

But this is an economic discussion, I should refrain from speaking the truth about what is happening in our government and stick to the numbers that are improving under the Republicans. I am all for conservation of our environment, but the Democrats policy did nothing for helping our environment world wide. We just made others who do not have environmental rules produce more of what we need, then we ship it half way around the world. Yeah, that sure conserves our environment, air blows all over, what is happening in China hits the west coast. We seem to be good at creating chemistry here that destroys our environment, then we have China supply us with it.

If we would have to suffer with the polution, maybe we wouldn't be making so much stuff out of plastic, bring jobs back to America.

a reply to: DBCowboy

I've never liked the smoke and mirrors politicans and the Media do with economic numbers.

On an anecdotal report, here in the suburbs of Detroit, I see tons of signs for help wanted. The going starting rate is 10 or 11 dollars for the signs I see. So much for the minimum wage arguement.
Those are just entry level unskilled stuff, there is a demand for skilled labor as well.

We need to get an a big infrastructure bill passed to really setup the economy for sustained long term nice GDP growth. The engine is primed.......

a reply to: DBCowboy

I don't know where everyone else lives, but where I live there are 20K jobs within a 25 mile radius. It has been that way for 5 years. I was out of the workforce for years, applied and got a job in 2 days, the same with my son. There are jobs if you want them, the problem is that a lot of people really don't want them. There are also high paying jobs, again, many people don't want to do what it takes to do them, be it mentally hard, or physically hard. If there are not jobs where you are you can't make them appear out of thin air, sometime you will need to move. The willingness to move has helped my family over the years. There were a lot of friends and family that refused to move and they are all suffering.

It doesn't matter who the president is, this has been the case with both Dem and Repubs in the office.

a reply to: JAGStorm

Remove the unfettered welfare and you better believe people will work those jobs.

a reply to: DBCowboy
Obama cooked the books during his term....

Numbers dont lie but they sure can be used to tell a story.
So easy to manipulate.


And unemployment will never be under 5 percent.
That many will always be between jobs or just plain unable to keep a job.
We all know a few of those.

I always went by the shadowstats unemployment rate which was the method used up until 1994.

That sits at 21% which is still down from around I think 28% last time I looked at it maybe last year.

Shadowstats

I don't care who's running the Govt. I don't trust any numbers they put out.

a reply to: watchitburn

Thanks for that link- the shadowstats more accurately reflects what I've been seeing here in my home town.

There have been "help wanted" and "now hiring" signs at almost every business I've seen for a decade, yet we have a ton of people who "can't find a job"

Granted, I'm so high and mighty complaining about lazy people while I post on the internet at work... but I wasn't exactly handed this job either. I had to start at the bottom like most everyone else, and I paid for my joke of a college education on my joke of a minimum wage job.

I've never seen a shortage of jobs, and at my last position I spent four years trying to hire competent people to work with. There's no shortage of jobs, and no shortage of money to pay competent, hard working people with... but there's a shortage of useful people, and a surplus of bums.

Know what bothers me most about the unemployment rate they broadcast? It's people who have applied for a job in the last month.
Most of those people? They don't want to get hired. They need to keep applying to keep getting their "free" ride. We all know some of these people. We've lived near, or even with them. We see them every day- they're in the busses. Around here, If you get three doctor appointments in a month (paid for by the people with jobs, of course) anyone on the dole gets a free unlimited bus pass. You can take the bus down town every day to pick up your free taxpayer funded heroin injecting equipment.
Of course we don't buy them their heroin yet, but every day it feels like we get just a little bit closer to crossing that line.

a reply to: watchitburn

Thank YOU; from the moment I read this OP I was trying to remember the name of the Shadowstats web site! Thanks for the link; I saved it in favorites.

From the site:

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

BTW, I'm with you.......I don't trust the government stats at all; they're too weighted and manipulated to reflect a reality they want project.

But, (and its a big one) stepping aside from the political stone chucking for a moment, to the OP's point, I honestly question whether or not there's ANYTHING a US government or political party can do to bring down the long term unemployment rate. There are so many variables involved. So in terms of going forward, a U-6 of 8%, (BLS Long term unemployed), 8% may be the "new normal".