The problem with the Drake Equation?

a reply to: proteus33

You mean.....God () help THEM if Humans ever get a chance to visit them.

In Space, they cant hear you Scream......EARTHLINGS!!!!!!!

We ARE the Aliens remember........

originally posted by: Kashai
So here is the problem.

One consideration to life like us would include realistically all the mass extinction events that occurred on Earth and could seriously have a lot to do as to why we are having this conversation.

Thoughts?

Doesn't I, that is, "the length of time over which such civilizations release detectable signals" take into account mass extinction level events.

I read with our present rocket technology it would only take 20,000 years to populate our entire Milky Way galaxy. And this could have happened 20 times. So then where are all the extraterrestrials?

Either we are the first. Or we missed the colonization event. Hard to say. There's probably really advanced extraterrestrials studying us the way we study ant hills in Africa.

a reply to: seagull

"Why did you use that number instead of this number?" Etc...

my prefered take on that is :

" do you think any of drakes variables should be zero , if so why - if not .................... "

a reply to: Kashai FAKE NEWS.....lol sorry I should have used the (sarc) on my first post. If we are alone then that equation should have helped a plane land on me 1000 times over.

a reply to: Allaroundyou

That would depend upon the amount of Earth-like planets in our galaxy that due to conditions experienced mass extinctions similar to what happened on earth.

For the sake of argument as a baseline in consideration.

Not really difficult to understand why.

a probability is not a guarantee.
its also statistically and probable that the Drake EQ is wrong in every facet.

Gamma-ray burst linked to mass extinction

Some 440 million years ago, a nearby gamma-ray burst may have extinguished much of life on Earth, say US astronomers1.

Adrian Melott, of the University of Kansas in Lawrence, and colleagues reckon that the fossil record of the end of the Ordovician period fits with how such a cosmic explosion a few thousand light years away could have altered the environment. At that time, more than 100 families of marine invertebrates died out; it was the second most devastating mass extinction in our planet's history.

www.nature.com...

When we venture into the stars we will likely find far more remains of long dead civilizations than we will evidence of living ones. If Earth is any indicator of how life evolves and dies over time, then it is safe to say that the vast majority of all species to have ever lived in the galaxy are Likely to have gone extinct long ago.

That is not to say that there are no intelligent civilizations out there, only that the density of intelligent life forms with capacity similar or greater than ours is less than we thought.

Life may be so rare in the cosmos and far far away that we never detect them. We are practically alone at that point. The universe seems like an awfully quiet place. Either everyone is hiding, or were the first, or one of the first to ever exist.

The Drake equation is a guess based on life that exists on earth and nothing more. Very similar to global warming claims based on 200 yrs of data out of 4.5 billion years using only what humans have added to the equation excluding all other factors. I'll venture a guess that life in the universe far exceeds anything that Drake has put forward.a reply to: Kashai

Add to the equation the stubbornness, persistance
and utter strength of life itself...

All these extinctions and yet, here we are.....

Maybe its a required rule for next level of
evolution in all civilizations.

originally posted by: seagull
The equation is over fifty years old, please remember that.

It's based on what was known, and presumed, at that time. Nor was it meant to be the be all, end all, of the question. It was only ever meant as a stimulus of discussion.

Every part of the equation is a variable. There's nothing concrete about it. It's only real validity is as a conversation starter.

"Why did you use that number instead of this number?" Etc...

I would like the Drake equation to be altered in two ways. First, we must consider that humans tend to strongly discount other beings anywhere. What is that factor worth in any human equation that has only a narrow view of the data (meaning the X factor of the hidden but full extent of the Universe and the conditions for life and intelligence)?

Second, the equation looking for life "out there" (I use that old Sagan term a lot), totally ignores apparent instances of other life that has had occasion to come here for a visit. Yes, I'm referring to the enigmatic UFO situation that, honestly, suggests no other answer but that there is life "out there" coming here. 'Rather funny has delusional humans can be when safeguarding and praising their own pedigree.

a reply to: Kashai

I am probably going to sound contradictory.

I have witnessed what i would call " Real UFO's " on several occasions. However, there are so many planets,even in our own galaxy, that i have a problem with how other life could even find us.

It's like trying to find just one particular grain of sand on a beach.

Surely when we speak of habitable zones we are not taking into consideration that not all extra terrestrials would be carbon based, breathe oxygen, and live within the same temperatures which is essential for our habitation. Also communication from an advanced species may be far too evolved for us to detect....let alone understand.
Even if there weren't all the mass extinctions and the dinosaurs etc didn't die out...would they have evolved over the millions of years and perhaps even started to communicate themselves?
Hmmm interesting stuff!

a reply to: Kashai

Well, Here is three times humanity almost bought the farm.

One potential natural disaster we talk about is the Yellowstone Caldera. I have driven out west and can tell you that there are still black volcanic boulders strewn about in grasslands left over from the last time. Driving by you look at them like WTF, then you realize how they got there.

The New Madrid Fault is another potential for massive American problems. Last time it made the Mississippi River flow backwards, created a lake in Tennessee and rang church bells in Boston. Damage today would be far beyond drowning cattle and knocking down log cabins. But at least it wouldn’t be a sign for Tecumseh’s Confederacy to attack settlers. It would however be the sign that the SHTF, so looters and preppers would be at it.

Other worlds would face similar natural disasters or inhibitors. Perhaps a “local” pulsar RF interferences lead to a different style of communication and propulsion system based on lasers and photons. Or perhaps psionic abilities developed and communication is telepathy and transport is telekinesis based with precognition for navigation.

originally posted by: Kashai

Scientists have finally succeeded in studying the development of a tiny Swedish worm. Its mouth and its anus are in the same spot and the worm is a primitive form of man.

If they haven't already named it I suggest Vermis Congressionalis.

I've always felt that the "L" factor (the length of time over which civilizations release detectable signals) was not telling the entire "Time" story.

The "L" factor might tell us the length of time a technological civilization might be apt to send signals; however, it doens't tell us exactly when that "L" time period takes place in history. There could have been hundreds of civilizations in our galaxy that had come and gone even before Homo Sapiens came on the scene here on Earth.

Think of it this way: How long does a civilization that can send signals last? 100,000 years? 1 million years? 2 million years? Let's get REALLLY liberal here and say a technological civilization (say, like ours) will last for another 5 million years. I say "liberal" because I think our civilization -- or almost any civilization -- would not last that long. Think about where we were 5 million years ago; we weren't even close to being human yet. 5 million years from now, I doubt our civilization will still exist.

While 5 million years sounds like a long time, it is very short in cosmological terms. The dinosaurs went extinct about 65 million years ago. (which itself is a relatively short time ago in the full history of the Earth). In those past 65 million years since the dinos went extinct, thirteen 5-million year old technological civilizations could have risen and fell in our galactic neighborhood.

So there could have been 13 (maybe a lot more) civilizations right in our neighborhood (within 5000 Light Years of us), since the dinosaurs went extinct, civilizations that rose and fell and are no longer around to send or receive signals.

Maybe I'm reading the equation wrong, but it seems to me that those "hundreds of civilizations in our galaxy that had come and gone even before Homo Sapiens came on the scene here on Earth" that I mentioned earlier would be what's included in the output of the equation, but not necessarily the ones that exist right now (and "right now" means the past few thousand years, because we need to consider the time it takes for a message to be sent from 5000 LY away, which is still what I call "our neighborhood").

But after all the calcs and recalcs, it still goes back to Fermi's Paradox: "Where is everybody?"

a reply to: Kashai

I have similar thoughts when it comes to the Drake equation, but I sometimes think that someone has to be first, is it us, are we the first?? I also agree with what "Soylent Green is People'" is saying.

originally posted by: Phantom423
But after all the calcs and recalcs, it still goes back to Fermi's Paradox: "Where is everybody?"

I think that's where the idea I posted above comes in. There could have been hundreds or thousands of civilizations in our Galaxy that have come and gone in the 4.5 Billion years since our solar system formed and hundreds/thousands more that might come and go for the next 5 Billion years that the Earth will be around --- which would technically mean that "civilizations are common", satisfying some interpretations of the Drake equation that tell us civilizations should be common.

However, how many of those technological civilizations exist right now and close to us? It could be that of all of those many technological civilizations that arose in the galaxy during the lifetime of the Earth, only a few are around at the present time, and those few are spread sparsely through the galaxy.

Technological civilizations existing "right now" could be so few and far between that (a) signals are too faint and diffuse to be recognized by us as signals, and (b) physical space travel from them to us is so difficult as to not have occurred.

So think of the current civilizations in the galaxy as occupying islands in the Pacific Ocean that are a thousand miles from each other, with only smoke signals and drums to communicate over distance, and with only canoes to get around. Chances are that the canoes will never be able to find the other islands -- so even though we may exist in an Ocean with other tribes on other islands, our tribe on our island for all practical purposes should be considered to be all alone.

My thoughts:

Why does it have to be "earth like"?

Have we considered these lifeforms may be radically different? Maybe their blood is mercury and they breath argon. Maybe they consume radium and sh*t gold nuggets.

I appreciate that looking for life forms "like" us reduces the numbers to something more manageable. But what if we're the only life forms like us? Maybe we are unique in that every other civilization doesn't understand how Earth could possibly be inhabitable?

Ok. Got it out of my system. Carry on.