Vegas Shooting Survivor Killed in Hit and Run (November 17)

originally posted by: purplemer

originally posted by: the owlbear
How many THOUSANDS of people are survivors of the Las Vegas barrel shoot?

Quite a few.
And statistically, people die...even if they were one of THOUSANDS.

There are about ten peeps dead now. Most of them have one thing in common. They all saw multiple shooters and they all posted about it online.

Where is your proof that ALL of them posted in online media there were multiple shooters?

There were 20,000 people attending that concert as well as thousands around the hotels some of which displaced during the shooting. I have seen zero proof that Roy McClellan posted anything about there being multiple shooters

As far as PTSD even people not even at the shooting or in Vegas have been traumatized by those events...

originally posted by: kelbtalfenek
a reply to: IAMTAT

Now we have to ask ourselves...

Is this a statistical anomaly? How many survivors from the massacre are there? How many have been killed or died since the shooting? Is this a disproportional ratio as compared to the population at large?

I think it's suspicious, but I am not a number cruncher and I wouldn't know where to obtain those stats anyways. But if there were say...1,000 survivors from the shooting (random number) and 10 of them have died/been murdered in the mean time...that would be 1.00%...is that supported in the general population? Was there a correlation of where these survivors were located during the shooting? Where they lived? Their job descriptions?

Are there any common threads that connect these witnesses other than the shooting?

With statistics, you could create a control group. Choose 20,000 people who have attended a Superbowl game or different concerts, and see how many died in strange circumstances within the same time frame.

Every age group of particular gender and ethnic groups has a particular mortality rate/year eg. 0.0001% So that would be 1 in 10000
You would then add up all these probabilities times the number of people in each age group and that would give you a theoretical number.

originally posted by: queenofswords

Denise said McClellan was struggling to deal with surviving the shooting and was seeking help.

“It was really messing with his head, and he was going to therapy,” she said.

So...Mr. McClellan was talking to a "therapist". I don't get the whole guilt complex about surviving though. But, I still wonder what he was talking about during his therapy sessions.

I am curious what you don't get about it?

I am seriously betting he talked to his Therapist about how was he so lucky to have not been shot or trampled. Or perhaps that with a close brush to death he was reevaluating his life. Or perhaps just the surrealness of the entire experience how anyone can just suddenly snap and shoot innocent people at random.

I can think of many many reasons why he would be in Therapy and sure he may have had his own "theories" on how or why or what happened but SURELY you are not suggesting that because he mentioned this to the therapist that he was then some how targeted...

And again I'd really like to know what you don't get about survivors guilt.

a reply to: kelbtalfenek

... I am not a number cruncher and I wouldn't know where to obtain those stats anyways. ...

I did the calculations.

Here's the math...

Stats based on World and US population

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

Are you saying that, statistically, 59-60 of the concert survivors would've normally died since the shooting?

originally posted by: the owlbear
How many THOUSANDS of people are survivors of the Las Vegas barrel shoot?

Quite a few.
And statistically, people die...even if they were one of THOUSANDS.

There are now 3 people we are aware of that were in the crowd, survived, and are now dead. That's within 6 weeks of the shooting. 3 in about 20,000 survivors.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: the owlbear
How many THOUSANDS of people are survivors of the Las Vegas barrel shoot?

Quite a few.
And statistically, people die...even if they were one of THOUSANDS.

There are now 3 people we are aware of that were in the crowd, survived, and are now dead. That's within 6 weeks of the shooting. 3 in about 20,000 survivors.

4.
With, at least, 3 dying from unnatural causes.
But who's counting?

a reply to: IAMTAT

Well, if OpethPA's numbers were accurate, then, yes. That's what the numbers calculate to without any emotion.

Seems high, and I'm sure there are probably some mitigating factors (like age demographics, etc.), but I can't imagine these would represent more than 10-15% skew in the numbers calculated.

edit...BTW, I cross checked OpethPA's numbers with US statistics (which I personally verified) and the World average is surprisingly close to the US average (actually higher).

originally posted by: abeverage

originally posted by: queenofswords

Denise said McClellan was struggling to deal with surviving the shooting and was seeking help.

“It was really messing with his head, and he was going to therapy,” she said.

So...Mr. McClellan was talking to a "therapist". I don't get the whole guilt complex about surviving though. But, I still wonder what he was talking about during his therapy sessions.

I am curious what you don't get about it?

I am seriously betting he talked to his Therapist about how was he so lucky to have not been shot or trampled. Or perhaps that with a close brush to death he was reevaluating his life. Or perhaps just the surrealness of the entire experience how anyone can just suddenly snap and shoot innocent people at random.

I can think of many many reasons why he would be in Therapy and sure he may have had his own "theories" on how or why or what happened but SURELY you are not suggesting that because he mentioned this to the therapist that he was then some how targeted...

And again I'd really like to know what you don't get about survivors guilt.

It's just me.

I think it is the word 'guilt' that baffles me. I can understand getting caught up in some idea that you were saved or spared from a tragedy by an "invisible hand" in your life. I can understand feeling a deep sadness for those that died while also being accompanied by an overwhelming relief for being spared.

But, guilty? That just seems to be the wrong word and the wrong emotion.

And, as far as your last question...ATS had a thread about FBI "agents" making personal recommendations regarding specific lawyers. It makes me wonder where he got the name for this particular therapist. Just wondering out loud.

I also wonder why he was hitchhiking in Pahrump.

a reply to: IAMTAT

What is this now, number 4? Or 5?
Talk about bad luck.
Survive the most deadly shooting in the USA, just to find your end a few weeks later to some other freak incident.

originally posted by: the owlbear
How many THOUSANDS of people are survivors of the Las Vegas barrel shoot?

Quite a few.
And statistically, people die...even if they were one of THOUSANDS.

How many U.S. celebs and politicians are there? You dont read them dying by the bucket and in some cases by freak accidents.

Walk into a football stadium during a game, and look around you...one of the people in the crowd will die that day.

It's hard to believe, but it's true.

edit...well, except for Cleveland or SF, what with all the people jumping off the upper decks and suiciding themselves in the parking lot! "Go Browns!!....G'bye sweet world...Geronimo-ooooooooo..." (THUD!)

a reply to: IAMTAT

crap maybe Final Destination wasnt just a crappy movie after all.

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
a reply to: IAMTAT

Well, if OpethPA's numbers were accurate, then, yes. That's what the numbers calculate to without any emotion.

Seems high, and I'm sure there are probably some mitigating factors (like age demographics, etc.), but I can't imagine these would represent more than 10-15% skew in the numbers calculated.

edit...BTW, I cross checked OpethPA's numbers with US statistics (which I personally verified) and the World average is surprisingly close to the US average (actually higher).

Ill post the link to the numbers later this morning.
I should have done that with my original post.

All the same thanks for all the follow up work FlyingClayDisk!!

a reply to: opethPA

No need to really; when I cross checked them with US numbers they jibe almost exactly (the US rate is a little higher even, which was surprising).

As I've noted, I'm sure there are other factors, but I can' imagine these other factors have a significant influence on the numbers. Consequently, it pretty much pours more than a little water on the mystery.

edit...probably about the biggest counter-argument to the stats I presented is, one might argue that a probability of 1:47k would technically mean you need a new data set of 47k each day. And, while this is technically correct, my response would be that 1 person of the entire data set only represents .02% of the whole data set so refreshing the data set each time would only make a negligible difference in the calculated numbers, refreshed or not. Further, given the statistical insignificance of one individual, the raw probability would not be notably different from a permutation calculation done using the diminishing data set. Might change the decimals 3-4 places out, but we'd be talking about 1/100ths of a person.

And one final note: I did round after the 2nd place behind the decimal for the same reasons noted above. It's pretty pointless to talk about 1/1000th's of a person or less.

a reply to: IAMTAT

How many does this make now, that have died since the shooting?? Far too many to be a coincidence.

What's the official word,anyway, on this case? Seems I haven't heard anything in weeks. Did they just close it?

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
a reply to: opethPA

So, just using those numbers for a moment, assuming they are accurate...

Population of Earth = ~7.4B
Deaths / day = 151,600
Deaths / population / day = 48,812 In other words, 1 in 48,812 persons die every day.

So, let's say the population of witnesses (concert attendees and other witnesses) is 50,000. This would suggest that 1.02 persons of this sample would die every day.

A total of 57 days have elapsed since the Las Vegas shooting. Using the rough math (above) would seem to indicate that 58.14 persons from the data set would be the statistical average. HOWEVER, ...

If the 151k number represents Earth we would have to skew the result to reflect death rates in Las Vegas compared to death rates in say 3rd world and war-torn countries. The exact numbers for Las Vegas would take some time to derive, but numbers for the US population are readily available. Soooooo...

Approximately 6,775 persons die in the US every day.
Population of the US = 324,400,000
Therefore, 1 in 47,882 die each day. (Note: surprisingly close to World average...and actually higher!)
Going back to the 50,000 data set, this would mean roughly 1.04 persons of the data set will die each day.
Ergo, 1.04 x 57 = 59.28 persons of the data set statistically would have died since the shooting occurred on Oct 1, 2017.

Now to be fair, to get even more accurate you'd need to skew the numbers towards the demographics (age groups, etc) of those witnesses, minimally the concert attendees which likely have a much lower rate / 1000 people, but those numbers are not readily available.

I don't have any particular posture on this one way or the other, but after having seen this theme several times I thought I'd take a run at the numbers to see what they are... just for fun.

Appreciate the stats, but how does it change if, as I believe is accurate, there ere only 20K people at the concert, and not 50K?

a reply to: IAMTAT

I don't want anyone to overlook the unusual death of the mother of one of the victims:

The mother of a Las Vegas police officer killed in the Route 91 shooting died this weekend after falling while riding an escalator.

Sheryl Stiles was in town to attend the Friday services for her only son, Charleston Hartfield, the Metropolitan Police Department officer killed in the Oct. 1 shooting. Cecil Ralston, Sheryl’s cousin, said she fell while riding an escalator at a Las Vegas hotel. There was a lot of family in town for Hartfield’s service, and on Sunday, Ralston said, they decided to take her off of life support.

“No one expected anything like this to happen,” he said.

Sheryl Stiles’ brother, Lewis Stiles, said she had a heart attack while riding the escalator. As a result, she fell and suffered brain damage, he said.

Mother dies days after funeral of cop killed in Las Vegas shooting


So...she fell...hit her head and was taken off life support after two days. The only source for a "heart attack" comes from her brother.

But, by the next day, when the MSM picked up the story, they reported it as if she died from a heart attack and then fell from an escalator....like CNN: Mother of Las Vegas shooting victim dies the weekend of his funeral

I think it's weird enough and closely linked enough to make a note of.

Lawyer For Las Vegas Music Festival And Jason Aldean, Found Dead

Orville Almon, the lawyer representing the Route 91 music festival and Jason Aldean, the singer onstage when the Las Vegas shooting began, has been found dead. He was 66.

Almon, a prominent Nashville attorney, opened his private practice Almon Law in 2010 where he represented musicians and entertainment industry organizations during battles with the law.

Orville Almon, known as a straight shooting attorney to the many Nashville musicians he represented, has become the latest in a very long line of suspicious deaths and disappearances surrounding the Las Vegas shooting.

Almon’s death, described by local Nashville media as “seizure during sleep”, mirrors that of Kymberley Suchomel of Apple Valley, California, a shooting survivor who was found dead in her home, hours after her husband left for work.

Ms. Suchomel gave a very detailed account of what happened in Las Vegas, insisting there were multiple gunmen involved in the shooting. Claiming that mainstream media was not telling the truth, Kymberley was planning on creating a survivor’s group to continue the quest for truth and justice.

yournewswire.com...
musicrow.com...

originally posted by: queenofswords
It's just me.

I think it is the word 'guilt' that baffles me. I can understand getting caught up in some idea that you were saved or spared from a tragedy by an "invisible hand" in your life. I can understand feeling a deep sadness for those that died while also being accompanied by an overwhelming relief for being spared.

But, guilty? That just seems to be the wrong word and the wrong emotion.

And, as far as your last question...ATS had a thread about FBI "agents" making personal recommendations regarding specific lawyers. It makes me wonder where he got the name for this particular therapist. Just wondering out loud.

I also wonder why he was hitchhiking in Pahrump.

In some people it can be enlightening and positive to have survived under such odds, but typically the stress of the situation after the fact weighs heavily on the mind, turning into PTSD.

Survivor Guilt is more a symptom of PTSD and a bewilderment of surviving something that personally you may not have, either by luck, by chance, random circumstances , by fate or by Deus ex machina. Whatever your beliefs even non-religious can affect this feeling and it is hard to shake.

Depression and anxiety at trying to reconcile why you were able to survive while others didn't. Unless you have experienced some such adversity or tragedy like this it is very difficult to explain, and while I agree guilt is the wrong word it is the sort of irreconcilable thoughts that cause that sort of feeling.