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Upsurge in big earthquakes predicted for 2018 as Earth rotation slows

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posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 05:54 AM
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Earthquakes, come guys, they happen all the time. Get over it. But I would like to point out that drilling all the oil out of the earth will, and notice I say "will" cause the sinking of land. I don't care if you believe me or not, but if you take something from under you, then what is above you "will" cave in.




posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 05:57 AM
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a reply to: CthulhuMythos
Only in a very general sense re time frame, and usually for specific regions. For example, Chris Goldfinger et al have published numerous papers that detail the Cascadia Subduction Zone's (CSZ) geo-historical record and have been able to show that the region has had numerous major or great quakes in the past several thousand years. (Goldfinger was the one who first discovered the layers of deposits from previous events along the Oregon and Washington coastlines and then investigated futher, with others.)

In that particular case, Goldfinger and his colleagues simply identified the intervals between these events and were able to show that effectively, the CSZ is now "in the window" for another event similar to the one that occured on Jan 26, 1700 -- which was at least as bad as the huge Japan quake in March 2011. (The Tohoku earthquake & tsunami.) But as they also point out, although there could be a similar quake there at any moment, it also might not occur for centuries yet.

IOW, they have used the data of past events to predict statistical probabilities. It's a given there will be another great quake in the CSZ, but they freely admit they cannot predict precisely when. So, it is nowhere near the precision the authors of the OP's referenced paper have claimed.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 06:04 AM
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originally posted by: ShadowChatter

lithospheric overshoot, a process whereby the equatorial lithosphere sluggishly overrides the decelerating underlying mantle


If the rotation is slowing down shouldn't there be less earthquakes...
This is just a wild guess, do TPTB want us to pay too put up more windmills to compensate for this man-made lithospheric overshoot...



Think of the tectonic plates like the arms of an ice skater doing a spin. If they move outwards, lifted up by hot convection currents or increase in volume of the core/mantle (heated by a magnetic field) then there is more stress on all the fault lines. They will try and move downwards. Once one slips, that moves the pressure elsewhere, and they keep jostling and nudging each other. Heat also makes elements softer, so there is less tensile strength.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 06:09 AM
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I think that about every 500 years the earth changes into a new era of uncertainty. If you look here at central America most trees are less then 500 years old.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 06:18 AM
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its my guess that the present day gooey Mantle surrounding the Earth core has big chunks of lumps (like unstirred oatmeal)
and that is what causes the millisecond variance in our 24 hour rotation > causing Mantle Plumes > causing outgassing > causing a 5 year cycle of 30 major EQs per year average

however, i bet that this 2018 predicted increase will continue for a decade or more of an increasing number and magnitude of Quakes above the average...


i submit that science still has not felt assured enough to declare this present era as a Volcano/Lava/outgassing era where plates are going to move swiftly & new lands appear as the Earth crust cracks, groans, upheaves, opens up new Seas & lands from the sea floors



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 06:38 AM
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a reply to: pheonix358
That's pretty right as far as the analogy goes. Acceleration or deceleration can be equally dangerous, as evidenced by the fact that extremely rapid deceleration in car crashes, falls etc is often what kills people.

However, there are no such sudden changes in respect of the Earth's rotational rate. The acceleration or deceleration is always very gradual. But on the other hand, it's all relative, as in this case we are looking at inertial effects on masses of many billions or trillions or tons. It takes a lot of energy and time to speed up or slow down a supertanker which might have a mass of say 1 million tons, so if something magnitudes more massive has movement relative to other masses around it (as in collisive or even subducting plates), then the time it takes to slow down or perhaps speed up will also be much longer. So even though we are looking at cm per year, the analogy still holds because the masses involved are so much greater. The frictional forces are also greater than those acting upon the analogous tanker, but relatively speaking, they could be considered as having a lesser effect.

So, while I follow the authors' premise of a delay of some years between a deceleration phase and a subsequent uptick in major quakes, I am still very dubious, because I would expect a similar effect following the first few years of an accelerative phase. (Some accelerative phases have lasted for decades.) By "similar" I don't mean an increase, necessarily; as I said in my earlier post here, I suspect that if the authors' premise is right, then there could even be a delaying effect in the case of accelerative phases.

I expect some pretty serious peer review is already underway.
As you'd know, these papers are often presented just for that reason: their authors rarely state "Hey, we're right!", it's more a case of "Here's our conclusions. What do you think?"

It wouldn't surprise me if the experts will have far more questions than a mere amateur like me and I sincerely doubt they will just accept it without a lot of scientific argument first.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 09:33 AM
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Rats, there is no adjustments on clocks anymore. I remember the old Ben clocks and a few others had that on them. I suppose we will all be dependent now on satellite input to keep our clocks from losing a second a month.

I suppose this will be used as a sales ploy to sell special new improved clocks and the government will spend a billion dollars upgrading it's systems to make sure their clocks are not a second a month off.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 09:51 AM
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I am usually cautious with the term 'scientist ...said/say', it is so ambiguous without naming names.

But then what scientist would like to have to stand behind their claims.....



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 10:39 AM
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a reply to: Plotus

Especially if you consider this claim is essentially warning indirectly for the possibility of hundreds or thousands of deaths...Wouldn't want my name attached to that kind of prediction...

Kind of scary when you consider all the already "Abnormal" weather we have in it's various forms.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 10:59 AM
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a reply to: UndeadWarrior

Yes, abnormal to us. Perhaps in cycles of time, great lengths of time, normal. And it's just a guess. Times and claims seldom coincide.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 01:10 PM
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originally posted by: Oldtimer2
Another story from the libs,funny how scientists can predict an earthquake,yet they can predict something that has never happened,sounds like another Al Gore story,global warming BS


Why does everything have to relate back politics?
Why is everything now days liberals fault?
Why are people so delusional and ignorant towards science?



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 01:32 PM
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From the paper:

We envisage the weak forces responsible for clustering originate from lithospheric strain induced by seismicity itself, by finite strains over
teleseismic distances, or by other sources of lithospheric loading such as Earth’s variable rotation. For example, quasi-periodic maxima in rotational deceleration are accompanied by increased global seismicity at multidecadal intervals.


So various, but weak, forces on the lithosphere (including changes in the Earth's rotation), lead to earthquake clusters. Makes sense. They use a lot of statistical stuff to find correlations. Maybe they're right. Now what?

source


7.0+

edit on 11/19/2017 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 02:04 PM
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a reply to: Phage



Maybe they're right. Now what?


We anchor some rockets to Earth and point them in the right direction to slightly speed up the Earth's rotation. With a hearty, "Whoah there laddy," we'll be able to bring a little drag in and thwart those earthquake swarms.

If that works we can steer the SS Earth a few miles further away from the Sun and minimise climate change. Of course we'd have to move the Moon too or it'd create more tidal forces and increase tectonic activity and deep sea temperatures. Hmmmm maybe it's the Sun wot wants moving?



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 02:11 PM
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a reply to: Kandinsky

Nope, we would have to stabilize the rotation, not change it. It's that Δω that's the problem.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 02:47 PM
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a reply to: Phage

So no Nobel Prize again? No flying Earth to where it's all happening? Science sucks.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 03:17 PM
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originally posted by: Phage
From the paper:

We envisage the weak forces responsible for clustering originate from lithospheric strain induced by seismicity itself, by finite strains over
teleseismic distances, or by other sources of lithospheric loading such as Earth’s variable rotation. For example, quasi-periodic maxima in rotational deceleration are accompanied by increased global seismicity at multidecadal intervals.


So various, but weak, forces on the lithosphere (including changes in the Earth's rotation), lead to earthquake clusters. Makes sense. They use a lot of statistical stuff to find correlations. Maybe they're right. Now what?

source


7.0+


Perform some signal processing on that data to see if there are any fundamental frequencies? Does look like that pattern when you add two or more sine waves together.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 04:05 PM
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a reply to: Plotus

I totally agree with you. Evidence is everywhere that earth every once in a while goes through significant change.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 05:23 PM
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a reply to: stormcell

Good idea. Here's a good source for historical data:
earthquake.usgs.gov...

More recent is readily available.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 05:28 PM
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a reply to: JustMike




For example, I would like to know the specific periods of rotational slowing they refer to. They seem to imply they have found more of these periods than previously known and published by eg Sidorenkov in 2009.


They are saying they KNOW there are previous slowings of 5 years in milliseconds! HOW can you find such information in the history of the planet, surely not in the rock record or any other. Personally, it seems amazingly far-fetched and yes, like a way to explain something they expect in the future year. If I read it right 4 of the years have gone without the large quakes and 2018 is the 5th year?



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 05:45 PM
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a reply to: SeaWorthy

They are saying they KNOW there are previous slowings of 5 years in milliseconds! HOW can you find such information in the history of the planet, surely not in the rock record or any other.


Depending on how far back you go it gets tricky. More recent, like since 1900 (which is the time span they used), it's not that hard to do so. Astronomy and stuff. Here's the source of some of that dataset:

The daily version of the COMB2000 observed length-of-day series [Gross, 2001a] is used in this study. This series is derived from a combination of Universal Time measurements taken by the techniques of optical astrometry, lunar and satellite laser ranging, and very long baseline interferometry. Besides estimating Universal Time, the Kalman filter used to combine the measurements also estimates its time rate-of-change and hence the length-of-day [Gross et al., 1998]. The COMB2000 length-of-day series spans January 20, 1962, to January 6, 2001, at daily intervals.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com...
edit on 11/19/2017 by Phage because: (no reason given)



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