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Upsurge in big earthquakes predicted for 2018 as Earth rotation slows

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posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 02:17 AM
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Scientists have warned there could be a big increase in numbers of devastating earthquakes around the world next year. They believe variations in the speed of Earth’s rotation could trigger intense seismic activity, particularly in heavily populated tropical regions.



“The Earth is offering us a five-year heads-up on future earthquakes.”

This link is particularly important because Earth’s rotation began one of its periodic slowdowns more than four years ago. “The inference is clear,” said Bilham. “Next year we should see a significant increase in numbers of severe earthquakes. We have had it easy this year. So far we have only had about six severe earthquakes. We could easily have 20 a year starting in 2018.”



link (The Guardian)

The underlying cause is not well understood but the correlation is there. "Slight changes" in the earth's core are being considered. But even if true the question remains what is causing those.

So there you have it: an "official science" prediction that 2018 is going to be a bumpy ride. Let's hope their warning is taken serious where it counts and preparations taken to minimize the number of potential victims!




posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 02:24 AM
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I'll keep this in mind, thank you.

S&F



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 02:37 AM
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there you have it:.. "official science"


Yeah, but what are we going to call it .... Global Tardation or Rotation Change



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 02:37 AM
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Abstract of a presentation the scientists gave recently at the GSA Annual Meeting:


A FIVE YEAR FORECAST FOR INCREASED GLOBAL SEISMIC HAZARD (Invited Presentation)


BILHAM, Roger, Geological Sciences and CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder and BENDICK, Rebecca, Department of Geosciences, University of Montana, Missoula


On five occasions in the past century a 25-30% increase in annual numbers of Mw≥7 earthquakes has coincided with a slowing in the mean rotation velocity of the Earth, with a corresponding decrease at times when the length-of-day (LoD) is short. The correlation between Earth's angular deceleration (d[LoD]/dt) and global seismic productivity is yet more striking, and can be shown to precede seismicity by 5-6 years, permitting societies at risk from earthquakes an unexpected glimpse of future seismic hazard. The cause of Earth's variable rotation is the exchange of angular momentum between the solid and fluid Earth (atmospheres, oceans and outer core). Maximum LoD is preceded by an angular deceleration of the Earth by 6-8 years corresponding to a π/4 phase lag of the 24-33 year peak-to-peak period of multidecadal oscillations of Earth's rotation. We show delayed global seismic productivity is most pronounced at equatorial latitudes 10°N-30°S. Two mechanisms may be responsible: (1) decreased oblateness (a reduction in J2) that attends a slowing of Earth's rotation and (2) lithospheric overshoot, a process whereby the equatorial lithosphere sluggishly overrides the decelerating underlying mantle westward, much as a loose cannon slides upon the deck of a rolling ship. The observed relationship is unable to indicate precisely when and where these future earthquakes will occur, although we note that most of the additional Mw>7 earthquakes have historically occurred near the equator in the West and East Indies. A striking example is that since 1900 more than 80% of all M≥7 earthquakes on the eastern Caribbean plate boundary have occurred 5 years following a maximum deceleration (including the 2010 Haiti earthquake). Calculations show the asthenosphere to have an appropriate viscosity to account for the delay between deceleration and subduction zone seismicity, however, a geodetic test of the anticipated westward overshoot would be of utility. Whatever the mechanism, the 5-6 year advanced warning of increased seismic hazards afforded by the first derivative of the LoD is fortuitous, and has utility in disaster planning. The year 2017 marks six years following a deceleration episode that commenced in 2011, suggesting that the world has now entered a period of enhanced global seismic productivity with a duration of at least five years.



link (Geological Society of America)
edit on 19-11-2017 by MindBodySpiritComplex because: Removed contact info from quote



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 03:06 AM
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lithospheric overshoot, a process whereby the equatorial lithosphere sluggishly overrides the decelerating underlying mantle


If the rotation is slowing down shouldn't there be less earthquakes...
This is just a wild guess, do TPTB want us to pay too put up more windmills to compensate for this man-made lithospheric overshoot...


edit on 19-11-2017 by ShadowChatter because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 03:12 AM
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Another story from the libs,funny how scientists can predict an earthquake,yet they can predict something that has never happened,sounds like another Al Gore story,global warming BS



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 03:12 AM
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Another story from the libs,funny how scientists can predict an earthquake,yet they can predict something that has never happened,sounds like another Al Gore story,global warming BS


+2 more 
posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 03:18 AM
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originally posted by: Oldtimer2
Another story from the libs,funny how scientists can predict an earthquake,yet they can predict something that has never happened,sounds like another Al Gore story,global warming BS


Says the guy typing on the internet lol. Is it science or magic that puts your words on the screen?




posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 03:24 AM
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a reply to: Kandinsky
Clarke's three laws

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 03:26 AM
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a reply to: ShadowChatter

Silicon Valley is powered by incense and incantations.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 03:42 AM
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a reply to: MindBodySpiritComplex
Oh and I am quite sure this prediction won't have anything at all to do with weather modification /warfare machines.


+1 more 
posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 03:51 AM
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originally posted by: ShadowChatter
If the rotation is slowing down shouldn't there be less earthquakes...

I'm not a scientist, but my crude layman's guess is that rotation slowing means things bumping into one another internally, as the slightly looser portions adjust to the change in speed. As when a car suddenly stops or changes speed and the passengers are thrown around a bit.
I expect somebody will turn up with a more technical explanation.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 03:59 AM
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originally posted by: ShadowChatter



there you have it:.. "official science"


Yeah, but what are we going to call it .... Global Tardation or Rotation Change



How about both?



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 04:00 AM
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a reply to: CthulhuMythos

It crossed my mind that this prediction could be used to hide some man made quakes among the rising number of natural ones.

Or the whole study could be psy ops to hide a lot of man made quakes. But that scenario would only make sense if the upper echelons believe the jig is up as in end times prophecies or the like.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 04:12 AM
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originally posted by: MindBodySpiritComplex

Scientists have warned there could be a big increase in numbers of devastating earthquakes around the world next year. They believe variations in the speed of Earth’s rotation could trigger intense seismic activity, particularly in heavily populated tropical regions.



“The Earth is offering us a five-year heads-up on future earthquakes.”

This link is particularly important because Earth’s rotation began one of its periodic slowdowns more than four years ago. “The inference is clear,” said Bilham. “Next year we should see a significant increase in numbers of severe earthquakes. We have had it easy this year. So far we have only had about six severe earthquakes. We could easily have 20 a year starting in 2018.”



link (The Guardian)

The underlying cause is not well understood but the correlation is there. "Slight changes" in the earth's core are being considered. But even if true the question remains what is causing those.

So there you have it: an "official science" prediction that 2018 is going to be a bumpy ride. Let's hope their warning is taken serious where it counts and preparations taken to minimize the number of potential victims!
I wondered why yesterday was 26 hours long...Now I know...



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 04:15 AM
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a reply to: DISRAELI

Imagine a corbelled arch and how the tensile stress keeps it all in place. That's similar to how the tectonic plates interact with each other. The Earth's rotational speed contributes to the tensile stress of the plates. Not so much a 'bumping' as settling into a slightly different formation and generating huge energies as they do.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 04:32 AM
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a reply to: Kandinsky
Thank you, I thought there would be a more scientific version somewhere.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 04:49 AM
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a reply to: MindBodySpiritComplex
Have we had predictions from scientists regarding earthquakes way in the future like this one before? If not, then it could really be a psy op and they are using it as a cover story for their future plans. If yes, it could still be used as a good mask for additional, and possibly bigger man made earthquakes. At the rate the globalist are pushing for their big world domination plan, it is a possibility. What's the expression? Never let a good crisis go to waste? Or something along those lines.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 05:33 AM
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a reply to: MindBodySpiritComplex

Thank you for an interesting op. I have checked the GSA Annual Meeting Upload List to see if this particular paper (no. 62-3) has been uploaded yet, but it's not there. That's a shame because I for one would sure like to read it, as some of the statements in the extract puzzle me.

For example, I would like to know the specific periods of rotational slowing they refer to. They seem to imply they have found more of these periods than previously known and published by eg Sidorenkov in 2009. [ETA: the book is The Interaction Between Earth's Rotation and Geophysical Processes, Nikolay S. Sidorenkov, Copyright WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co, 2009.] Also, as pointed out by him, some of these periods of slowing last less than 6-8 years, as was the case in 1989-1994.

The second question that bothers me is simple: if, as the paper's author's claim, there is a correlation between an increase in (annual average) mag 7-plus quake activity following these rotational deceleration periods, why is there no evidence of similar or even delaying effects when the Earth's rotation speeds up again? After all, to use the analogy of (unsecured) goods in a truck moving around when the vehicle decelerates, then surely it should follow that as the truck accelerates, the same goods will also move around. (Technically, the goods only "move" because of inertia, but hopefully readers will follow the analogy, as the principle is the same.)

Finally, after spending a fair amount of time over the past several years studying data for quakes (especially mag 7-plus events), I did not notice any periodic variations that seemed to follow a specific pattern. Yes, the number of such quakes varies year by year, as does therefore the interval between events (the longest in the 20th century was 180 days, IIRC), but I was never able to identify clear correlations with eg moon phases, let alone the actually very minor rotational rate fluctuations.

The trouble is, I don't have the letters after my name that the authors do. I'm just an interested amateur. So okay, I must have missed whatever they have found. Even so, I still wonder about the accelerative phases apparently having no such effects or pattern. But heck, I wish I could get my hands on a copy of that paper!
edit on 19/11/17 by JustMike because: I added an ETA.



posted on Nov, 19 2017 @ 05:53 AM
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a reply to: JustMike

To continue with your analogy ...

If the decrease in velocity is sudden the boxes will move but if you accelerate slowly, the boxes will stay put.

It is the acceleration that is dangerous.

As for this study, I am not sure. I would like to see it peer reviewed. And quickly


P



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