originally posted by: BoutThere
a reply to: anzha
after doing some relatively through searching I found an interesting reasoning behind these launch "failures", just as with Misty Satellites. It is
located within the link below
The really interesting stuff seems to be spread out, however on page 105 it goes into some detail in regards to direct orbit changes, and hiding those
and the satellites location with "explosions" and other various visual trickery in order to inflate its visible, thermal, radar cloak.
there is plenty of information out there to develop a methodology of what is being done here... as its been done before, albeit not quite in the same
This is really interesting stuff. Read the WaPo article on page 121, which gives a lot of detail about the cost of Misty. It seems pretty clear that
the US has spent a lot of money on stealth satellites since at least the 90s. Based on all of the information about Misty, it wouldn't be a stretch
to assume that Zuma could potentially be a next generation of stealth sats. Lockheed Martin was the prime for Misty, NG is now. The timelines make
sense, if they didn't start development on a new program until the mid 2000s, it could take a decade to build and launch something of this nature.
Here's what we know:
* There are three possible outcomes that have been speculated. 1) Dead in orbit. 2) fell back to earth, splashed into Indian ocean. 3) Failure is a
deception campaign to hide a [potentially stealth] satellite. Not sure what other possibilities there are that wouldn't have been noticed immediately
(e.g. explosion of some sort)
* If it's dead in orbit like some reports have claimed and it's not a stealth satellite, amateur trackers should have or will find it. Also, since it
came out so fast that the satellite was a total loss (allegedly), dead in orbit seems unlikely or they would probably be trying to regain
contact/control for some time.
* It could be both dead in orbit AND a stealth satellite, in which case trackers might not be able to find it. But same things apply as above
* If it fell back to Earth on the upper stage and is resting on the bottom of the Indian ocean still attached to the upper stage as other reports have
claimed, the U.S. military will be looking for it in the ocean so someone else can't get their hands on it. So, we would expect to see some sort of
military activity in the Indian ocean that I'm not sure they could hide, even if they didn't admit what it was for.
Other things that are strange:
* SpaceX continues on as if nothing was wrong with the exception of a vaguely worded statement that implied it wasn't their fault. That seems fishy
considering a potentially billion dollar satellite was lost on one of their launches, even if they are confident it wasn't their fault. If something
did go wrong, even if on the surface it was obviously not their fault, it would take some time for them to be able to say with 100% certainty that it
wasn't something they could have done differently to prevent. Eventually, they would be vindicated one way or another.
* News came out REALLY fast that this satellite was a total loss even though there is absolutely no evidence of it being a total loss aside from
inconsistent leaked reports from unnamed sources.
* A billion dollars is expensive, even for a satellite. Was this the cost of the program or of the satellite? This is in the ballpark of the price
tag for the newest ECS satellites, which are huge and incredibly complex imaging sats. Falcon 9 is not launching school-bus sized satellites into
orbit. While this is incredibly circumstantial, the veil of secrecy around this program surpasses that of 'normal' spy satellites.
* If the gov't is still testing the waters with SpaceX to launch sensitive missions, why would the gov't go straight to the most sensitive mission
they have unless SpaceX had some sort of unique capability that enabled them to accomplish some requirement? One possible explanation is timing of
the launch, and making it 'disappear', even for a short while, provides some critical tactical advantage that will give the US an opportunity to
answer some questions before doing something, like start a war (*cough* North Korea). Thinking U-2's and SR-71s during the cold war.
This may be all tin-foil hat stuff that I'm manifesting, and occams razor probably applies here, but there are so many strange things here.