The Illusion of Confidence or: What Know-It-Alls Don't Know

Ok, I am sure that many of you have seen this video. It is interesting but the real catchy part happens in the last few seconds which I will get to momentarily.


The student tells the teacher: "YOU DON'T KNOW MORE THAN THE DICTIONARTY!"
Her response: "I bet I do! I am a VERY intelligent person".

This leads me back to an article I read the other day and it has had me thinking: What if this is the problem with all those on the extreme left and the extreme right? Is there a cure, or are some people just that dumb to believe they are that smart?

The article in question is here here.

It tells of a man that robbed two banks. He didn't where a mask or disguise and even smiled at the cameras on he way out:

One day in 1995, a large, heavy middle-aged man robbed two Pittsburgh banks in broad daylight. He didn’t wear a mask or any sort of disguise. And he smiled at surveillance cameras before walking out of each bank. Later that night, police arrested a surprised McArthur Wheeler. When they showed him the surveillance tapes, Wheeler stared in disbelief. ‘But I wore the juice,’ he mumbled. Apparently, Wheeler thought that rubbing lemon juice on his skin would render him invisible to videotape cameras. After all, lemon juice is used as invisible ink so, as long as he didn’t come near a heat source, he should have been completely invisible.

Apparently, the man was not on drugs but had an ‘illusion of confidence’ which is now called the ‘Dunning-Kruger effect’. He believed just that strongly that LEMON JUICE would actually make him invisible. I personally find this hard to believe but hey, just read some of the post on ATS.

The article goes on to say:

To investigate this phenomenon in the lab, Dunning and Kruger designed some clever experiments. In one study, they asked undergraduate students a series of questions about grammar, logic and jokes, and then asked each student to estimate his or her score overall, as well as their relative rank compared to the other students. Interestingly, students who scored the lowest in these cognitive tasks always overestimated how well they did – by a lot. Students who scored in the bottom quartile estimated that they had performed better than two-thirds of the other students!

This ‘illusion of confidence’ extends beyond the classroom and permeates everyday life. In a follow-up study, Dunning and Kruger left the lab and went to a gun range, where they quizzed gun hobbyists about gun safety. Similar to their previous findings, those who answered the fewest questions correctly wildly overestimated their knowledge about firearms. Outside of factual knowledge, though, the Dunning-Kruger effect can also be observed in people’s self-assessment of a myriad of other personal abilities. If you watch any talent show on television today, you will see the shock on the faces of contestants who don’t make it past auditions and are rejected by the judges. While it is almost comical to us, these people are genuinely unaware of how much they have been misled by their illusory superiority.

I was going to put this in the Science forum until I ran across this video. It sums up the study very well in my opinion and leaves hope that if there is a cause for someone acting as if they know-it-all, then perhaps there is a cure as well.

The article and the studies make for a good read, very thought provoking.
So ATS, what do you think of the ‘Dunning-Kruger effect’? Is it really a 'thing'?

a reply to: Quadrivium

Those who talk loudly got nothing to say, came to mind as I read it.
Could be an evolutionary relict from back then when stupidity still was actually deadly? Something like you are below average that's why your confidence assures you, you can take on a lion...
Interesting, thanks.

a reply to: Quadrivium

I always thought the definition for that was...

Definition of overcompensation: excessive compensation; specifically :excessive reaction to a feeling of inferiority, guilt, or inadequacy leading to an exaggerated attempt to overcome the feeling.

I suspect one of the issues is that mediocre people are often told how good they are. It's part of the "Everybody gets a medal" routine so that no one "feels bad" that they didn't get one. Although that sounds a bit nefarious, a lot of it has to do with being polite. If a friend of yours sings like crap and asks how well they did and you say, "You sound like crap." that's not going to go over well and may end any friendship and perhaps make an enemy. So even if you sound like crap, people in your circle are unlikely to tell you that and that contributes to your delusion of being able to sing well. To use an immediate example, look at the numerous spelling and grammar errors made by the OP, even as the source material quoted is available and correct. If anyone dares to point this out they will be met with, "You're a Grammar Nazi!" and "That shouldn't count!" Basically, we are a culture of mediocrity and we don't like people who actually do well and excel. If they ARE ahead of others it can't possibly because they are better, more intelligent, or more creative. It must be that the had an unfair advantage. That attitude completely pervades ATS in all fields.

a reply to: schuyler

You're concentration must have left the building while writing the last few sentences, you forgot a "be" and it's they not the.
We're still friends, right?
Haha. Which is me saying: agreed. But I'm a dick.

For some reason I fell into some older YT vids on the reactions to the US elections ... Mark Twain said that it was easier to fool someone then to convince them they had been fooled .A year later and we still see the emotional investment into Hillary that is like a black voodoo gone wrong ... For all those so called "Experts" to have gotten it so wrong and try to maintain some semblance of genuineness ,they paint a path to Russia with a Pokemon ... you just cant make this stuff up .+++

a reply to: Quadrivium

Those who know don't say, and those that say don't know.

As Confucius supposedly said, "Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance."

I found that, as I went on in college, what I learned the most was how little I knew, and how much there was to know. I learned that I was woefully ignorant.

Therefore, those who go around blabbing about how smart they are, typically don't know a darned thing. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, etcetera etcetera.

It's great to share what one DOES know, but don't ever assume you know it all, because that is impossible. It's also the trouble with our population currently. They are told a little bit, told how to feel about it, and they trumpet it out like an absolute. Idiocracy isn't just a movie, it's the western world now.

originally posted by: Peeple
a reply to: schuyler

You're concentration must have left the building while writing the last few sentences, you forgot a "be" and it's they not the.
We're still friends, right?
Haha. Which is me saying: agreed. But I'm a dick.

My grammatical peeve is seeing the words then and than used improperly.

How to use "then" and "than"
Thursday July 14th 2016
Question
How do I correctly use then and than? — Learners around the world
Answer
Then and than are often confused, even by native English speakers. This may be because they sound similar, especially in rapid speech. However, they are two different words and cannot be used interchangeably.

Then means "that time," "at that time," or "at the time mentioned" as in the following sentences:
The show starts at 6:00, but I'll be home before then.
Their sister would be home in an hour. Only then would they be able to relax.
Back then, children played outside a lot more often.

Then is also used to indicate what happens or happened next, or what should be done next, as in the following sentences:
First I went to the store, and then I got gas.
Finish your homework, and then you can watch TV.
Turn right at the next street, then turn left at the light.

Than is used to make comparisons as in the following sentences:
I like cake better than pie.
You and I are both taller than Gary.
She would rather stay in than go out.
We had eaten more than our share of the cookies.

Just remember, then is used for time, and than is used for comparison.

a reply to: CharlesT

Believe it or not, it is easy to type one of those words when you mean the other. I have to watch myself because I tend to do it all the time.

It's one of a gaggle of things I tend to pick up when proofing from people who really don't seem to understand what they don't know.

It's like unlearning and it's really irritating.

originally posted by: Peeple
a reply to: schuyler

You're concentration must have left the building while writing the last few sentences, you forgot a "be" and it's they not the.
We're still friends, right?
Haha. Which is me saying: agreed. But I'm a dick.

Agreed!
You're a dick, muhuhahahaha
You didn't notice where I used "where" instead of "wear"?

a reply to: CharlesT

I said "back then" which is obviously referring to a time when we were still hunters and gatherers so...
fail

a reply to: Quadrivium

I'm usually a fast reader which means I tend to only see the first letter the context and not actually look at it, so no. I didn't.
I had to let the dick out because he was talking about grammar nazis.

originally posted by: Quadrivium

The student tells the teacher: "YOU DON'T KNOW MORE THAN THE DICTIONARTY!"
Her response: "I bet I do! I am a VERY intelligent person".

Dictionartys don't know anything, do they?

a reply to: Deetermined

I am pretty sure the article and the study are speaking of something different than overcompensation. These people don't have the excessive feelings. They just KNOW they are right, even when they are wrong.

originally posted by: Nothin

originally posted by: Quadrivium

The student tells the teacher: "YOU DON'T KNOW MORE THAN THE DICTIONARTY!"
Her response: "I bet I do! I am a VERY intelligent person".

Dictionartys don't know anything, do they?

I was actually waiting for this response. To which I have little to no reply.
Know anything?
I guess not but it has almost all the definitions there. So when you say you know a definition and you're wrong, either you're a delusional know-it-all or......well, a delusional know-it-all.

a reply to: Quadrivium

I think you have to say grammar nazis two times to summon one. *cough:dictionary

The Dunning-Kruger effect

originally posted by: Peeple
a reply to: Quadrivium

I think you have to say grammar nazis two times to summon one. *cough:dictionary

My lap top is on the fritze so I am stuck using this Teeny tiny keyboard and I am not proof reading as I should............oh......nvm.....i see where you are going....muhuahahaha.

originally posted by: Quadrivium

originally posted by: Nothin

originally posted by: Quadrivium

The student tells the teacher: "YOU DON'T KNOW MORE THAN THE DICTIONARTY!"
Her response: "I bet I do! I am a VERY intelligent person".

Dictionartys don't know anything, do they?

I was actually waiting for this response. To which I have little to no reply.
Know anything?
I guess not but it has almost all the definitions there. So when you say you know a definition and you're wrong, either you're a delusional know-it-all or......well, a delusional know-it-all.

Dictionaries are static snapshots. Just facts in the moment.
Words, languages, expressions, and definitions are dynamic, and constantly evolving.

Can the same be said for our supposed knowledge?
Perhaps as soon as we think we know something, we freeze an idea in place.
But ideas are shared, and evolve, and so the thing we think we know, has morphed in another direction.

Thinking we know things, is like driving down a road, and burning the bridges behind us. We lose access to other tangential ideas, because we think we have the one and only true road.

Bless ignorance, deny knowledge.

originally posted by: Nothin

originally posted by: Quadrivium

originally posted by: Nothin

originally posted by: Quadrivium

The student tells the teacher: "YOU DON'T KNOW MORE THAN THE DICTIONARTY!"
Her response: "I bet I do! I am a VERY intelligent person".

Dictionartys don't know anything, do they?

I was actually waiting for this response. To which I have little to no reply.
Know anything?
I guess not but it has almost all the definitions there. So when you say you know a definition and you're wrong, either you're a delusional know-it-all or......well, a delusional know-it-all.

Dictionaries are static snapshots. Just facts in the moment.
Words, languages, expressions, and definitions are dynamic, and constantly evolving.

Can the same be said for our supposed knowledge?
Perhaps as soon as we think we know something, we freeze an idea in place.
But ideas are shared, and evolve, and so the thing we think we know, has morphed in another direction.

Thinking we know things, is like driving down a road, and burning the bridges behind us. We lose access to other tangential ideas, because we think we have the one and only true road.

Bless ignorance, deny knowledge.

ok. .... So you're smarter than a dictionary too?