Funny- Interesting Iranian War Scenario

Originally posted by weirdo
Maybe if you worded this sentance "I have analyzed and forecasted news events 1-2 months before the mainstream media" you would not come accross as so listen to me l am right l am the expert blah blah blah this site is not for ones ego trip.

I'll tell you what. If you can get one of the mods to give me a warning for "mis-using" ATS over this, then we'll talk about it. I'm sorry you're so threatened by my knowledge of this subject, but my use of ATS will not be dictated by your insecurity.

I asserted my views strongly so that they may be considered as part of this discussion. Nobody has to accept my analysis, but given my knowledge and my record, it does carry some weight with some members who know me.

See you are not satisfied in simply stating your points and allowing others to come to there own conclusion.

Truthfully? No, I don't see. Where oh where have I done anything to prevent others from forming their own conclusions? Are you afraid to to form conclusions that I do not agree with? That's your complex, not mine.

I don`t get mad as l don`t have an overwhelming need to prove any points l make a correct.

Yet again, you seem to dislike the fact that I have a high appraisal of my own knowledge on this subject. I don't claim to be all knowing. I don't claim that everyone should accept my words without question. Please do not misunderstand me as somebody who just dogmatically pounds the talking points day in and day out. I give my insight and I ascribe a certain credibility to it because my analysis has proven at least partially correct in past cases. The reader can still take it or leave it, and though I defend my points when they are challenged I would not expect anybody to be silenced or deprived of their opinion just because I believe that I am right.

Simple any conflicts which has resulted in the US invading,conquering and resulting in a better future (Not in the American idea of better) for the people of that country.

Woah, that's a great big red herring. There is no way that I'm going to sit here and argue that getting invaded by America is good for a country. This isn't a thread about the justification of the Iraq war or any other American war. All I'm discussing is America's ability to win military victories when threatened.

It is possible that the Iraqi`s have planned the situation we see today.

You could be walking into the spiders web without realising you are too weak to get out.

There is little doubt that the Iraqis had the Vietnam example in mind. They did plan an insurgency and a gradual attrition and demoralization of US forces, however there is very little hope for this to be a part of a larger conventional military plan. America could simply abandon the Iraqi cities and take its forces to the field to deal with a conventional threat- the insurgents lack the ability to take the fight to the Americans- they require Americans to come into the cities to fight.
The scenario proposed by the websites linked by Siberian assumes far too much. It assumes that if America gets slapped that America won't come back to the region with greater forces. It assumes that Russia may resort to nukes to defend Iran if needbe. It assumes that America's officials are asleep at the wheel and not even considering the possibility of an Iranian first strike. You have to realize that America is not run by the ignorant media-fed masses. The average American might have his head burried in the sand, but the pentagon knows the score. I sincerely doubt that America lacks contingency plans, and therefore while America could certainly get hurt, it is extremely unlikely that we are becoming entangled in a web from which we can not escape.


Last but not least, your comment that there isn't peace in Iraq yet completely ignores my words. I said "if were are discussing the ability of US forces to make middle eastern armies surrender", because I had already addressed the insurgency question. Do you deny that the Iraqi army surrendered? Perhaps you subscribe to Baghdad Bob's newsletter and believe that American forces are "cut off all over Iraq"?

Originally posted by weirdo
I never stated Iranians attacking people on the underground with AK would kill large numbers of people.I was pointing out there would be a psycological victory resulting in Americans feeling vunerable to attack at random anytime anywhere.

It must be nice living wherever you live. I'm used to the fact that people get shot in my city. I never think about it happening to me; it doesn't even keep me from running my mouth (and occasionally my knuckles) in situations where shutting up would be a lot safer. There is no psychological damage, no terror, none of that- except maybe for uptight upper-middle class "middle american" minority which has never been kicked in the teeth and therefore is exceedingly afraid of violence.

Ok it`s plain to see we disagree on some issues.I have read your posts that are full of detail.You believe in Americas ability to Win conventional wars.To disagree in that is ridiculous.I believe you are missing the point .You are involved in a conflict that has not been fought this way before.America attacking Iran may well lead you further into the game plan.There is no doubt America would suceed but at what cost and l believe that America attacking Iran is part of a larger plan to destroy America.Not next year or two years but in time who knows.World opinion of America if action in Iran were to go ahead could have a serious response not only from China,Korea but economically the world might respond in cutting trade with America,refusing to supply or purchase goods from America.China currently is capable of supplying goods world wide.If you upset enough countries you could be cut off.Too way off we`ll see.time not debate will tell.

Anyway keep up the posts Vagabond

Originally posted by weirdo
I believe you are missing the point .

If i had a nickel for every time...
It's been known to happen though, so I won't be closed minded to the idea that other mechanisms could be at work beyond military/strategic principles.

There is no doubt America would suceed but at what cost and l believe that America attacking Iran is part of a larger plan to destroy America.

I see your point but I believe the Chinese have their eyes on bigger schemes. I believe that America is driving the situation in the middle east as a response to Chinese manuevering against America, not that the middle east is a trap.
America's economy is being heavily undermined by China. China is manipulating resource markets from the demand side which provides all the benefits of militarily conquering resource bearing nations without the hassle of actually fighting a war. In response America is seeking to gain access to undeveloped and inaccessible resources such as those in Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. That's where the war in Iran comes in.
I believe that the Islamic pawns need not militarily defeat America in order to keep this strategy from working- all they have to do is continuously sabotage and destabilize any attempt to harvest resources from Afghanistan, Iraq, or Turkmenistan. Russia and China have very little incentive to cross the line by supporting an Iranian war effort once hostilities errupt- I believe they want to deter a war, and once that fails they will be satisfied to help terrorists prevent resource exports. No need to fight a real live war or provide serious weapons to terrorists.
Also, as I will point out in a minute, they dont want to destroy America. They just want to edge America out of the spotlight.

could have a serious response not only from China,Korea but economically the world might respond in cutting trade with America,refusing to supply or purchase goods from America.

America is the one doing a lot of the purchasing China likes selling stuff to us, they just wish want to become more powerful and influential than us so that we are more like a "client state". An embargo on America would be as costly for China as it would be for America.

China currently is capable of supplying goods world wide.If you upset enough countries you could be cut off.Too way off we`ll see.time not debate will tell.

I could be wrong, so yes time will tell. Until time does tell though it will be my opinion that China wants to keep selling to America and let America keep footing the bill for research in key industries. For example if the world turned its back on America, then American companies and consumers would no longer be bearing the majority of pharmaceutical development costs. They like us right were we are- as long as "where we are" stays on our own continent and off of theirs. That's my personal belief on what time will eventually tell.

Anyway keep up the posts Vagabond

And you as well. I can see where you're going with this now. I had originally thought you were supporting the somewhat radicalized claims made by Siberian's links. Big difference

It must be nice living wherever you live. I'm used to the fact that people get shot in my city. I never think about it happening to me; it doesn't even keep me from running my mouth (and occasionally my knuckles) in situations where shutting up would be a lot safer. There is no psychological damage, no terror, none of that- except maybe for uptight upper-middle class "middle american" minority which has never been kicked in the teeth and therefore is exceedingly afraid of violence.

I live between two countries at the moment.The uk which is pretty safe apart from the rising violent street crimes and Spain that is being attacked weekly by ETA.I have members of my family in prison for there involvment in that organisation.I also no friends and neighbours who have been killed and injured by that organisation.I have experianced being stopped at armed checkpoints by members of the military who wear balaclavas to hide there id putting a automatic rifle to the back of the head whilst kneeling on the ground because the car we had Basque numbers plates which meant we had to be searched and humiliated for fun.Then returning to areas were you cannot speak to people about your politics as they may be members of the organisation that view you as the enemy even though you are Basque.I lived in a town that the postman was shoot in the back of the head one day because he worked for the Spainish govt delivering mail.I have been evacuated nemourous times from shops that have recieved bomb threats that are not spacific as to the bombs location.I have been in an apartment block when luckily only a small device went off.

You'll see my friend you'll see.

Originally posted by weirdo

It must be nice living wherever you live.

I live between two countries at the moment.The uk which is pretty safe apart from the rising violent street crimes and Spain that is being attacked weekly by ETA.

I withdraw my comment then, although I happen to have lived in a town that was built on the labors of Al Capone and which was primarily ruled by a motorcycle club called "The Vagos" up until a few years back. The city hired something like 12 police officers after they finally became incorporated, but the cops are mostly either dirty or too busy trying to not get shot to help anyone.
It's like an enclave of Columbian territory in the middle of America. Hard to believe that all this lawlessness exists about 15 minutes drive from Palm Springs, where former presidents play golf with 1960s celebrities.


Edit to marvel at the fact that even though he seems to get a warning in every thread I see him in, Siberian still manages to keep supporing ignorant hateful rhetoric with sloppy one-line posts.

[edit on 12-2-2005 by The Vagabond]

Originally posted by Sep

Originally posted by namehere
well hes right, i mean iran was stronger in the iran-iraq war and almost lost so i doubt they can challnge our forces anymore than iraq did.

Iran's army was disbanded a few months before the Iran-Iraq war, how were they stronger exactly?

Sep is right how can you say they where stronger? They had just gone through a revolution pretty much all Iranian military where killed or moved countrys (remeber they where all shah military) and iraq attacked them with chemical weapons from france, united states, and a couple other places. Iran is twice the size population wise and land mass wise compared to iraq, and is not flat desert land like iraq, the whole reason saddam attacked when he did was becouse iran was at the weakest.

Originally posted by The Vagabond


I withdraw my comment then, although I happen to have lived in a town that was built on the labors of Al Capone and which was primarily ruled by a motorcycle club called "The Vagos" up until a few years back. The city hired something like 12 police officers after they finally became incorporated, but the cops are mostly either dirty or too busy trying to not get shot to help anyone.
It's like an enclave of Columbian territory in the middle of America. Hard to believe that all this lawlessness exists about 15 minutes drive from Palm Springs, where former presidents play golf with 1960s celebrities.


Edit to marvel at the fact that even though he seems to get a warning in every thread I see him in, Siberian still manages to keep supporing ignorant hateful rhetoric with sloppy one-line posts.

[edit on 12-2-2005 by The Vagabond]

I am suprised you live in a place that is so violant and you come across so interested in you govt actions abroad.People need to group together and get there voices heard to make a better life.America needs to but out of other countries as does Blair.Yes there aare possible threats to our security from rogue countries,but that has allways been a possibility.Blair and Bush are very similar in that respect that they seem to be ignorant of the problems in there own countries.Unfortunetly for us we have an election looming in the next few months,but unlike you guys the choices of candidates we have is limited and as with the last election where only 40% people voted Blair will be re -elected until a party or new members of excisting parties appear.At the moment there is an anti immigration message going around that could start problems with race hatred.

As for Siberian he just needs to put the attitude back in the cage and engage the brain.I`ve never met a Russian yet that can be diplomatic.

You have no Idea of what Diplomatic is hu, invading a nation when no threat is there, when your own constitution says you can't go outside the western hem for war, when your constatution does not call your country a DEMOCRACY but a Republic, when your costatution doesn't allow you to join NATO/or the UN, doesn't allow you to have a incume tax you dare talk about me NOT BEING diplomatic, when your leaders are so sure you Americans are so braidamaged that they can openly say NEW WORLD ORDER rehtoric infront of you, you dare call me undiplomatic?

[edit on 13-2-2005 by SiberianTiger]

Siberan Tiger ----> Whose country has faired better? Yours or ours? Oh, wait, your country imploded around 10 years ago....You guys got it figured out pretty good huh?

Our country was founded with a CONSITUTION that allows amendments to be added to it. Our forefathers had the common sense (something your leaders apparently did not, as your nation has DISSOLVED), and foresight to realize that times will change, and things will need to be added or removed as WE THE PEOPLE see fit. Its not a binding statement. It can and does change...

And yes, we are a democratic republic? Point being? We dont want 3000 people on the ballot. We want 2 or 3. Keep it simple. President doesnt have that much power. Its the 1500 people he brings to Washington with him that do.

Now, I understand your anger. I would be mad, if my country was ruined by inept leaders who went broke in Afghanistan, and allowed my GREAT NATION to fall into pieces. I would be bitter if my countries biggest contribution to modern society was Sergei Grinkov. These things would anger me as well. But we must learn to channel that anger in a positive direction.

PS-----> Sit Putin Sit !!! Good Putin !!! Thats a good Putin !! Stay Boy !!

I was reminded of an almost certainly apocryphal anecdote.

Seems that in the latter part of the cold war Russia was allowed some limited trade with the U.S. Some nameless institution ordered 50,000 condoms from an American plant (located in Texas, I like to think).

The order specified that the condoms were to be 11 inches long. The Americans scratched their heads, called the Russians to verify the measurement, and were rudely told that the order was correct, all of the condoms should be 11 inches long.

So the Americans proceeded to fill the order and shipped the Russians 50,000 11-inch condoms-- in boxes labeled "medium." Heh heh heh

WOW I just proved to you your nation is run by a bunck of sionist lakeys and you just skipped all what I said and started talking about Russia, hahahaah here let me force you back on subject, you are wrong about YOUR constitiution no were in there is it U.S. called democratic republic, it's called A Constitutional Republic", an Amendment in YOUR constitution is only permissable if 2/3 of Congress (Both The House AND Senate 2/3 of EACH) and 2/3 of the Govenors vote yes on something then it's an Amendment the last Amerndment was the 15th Pal aster that the sionists have made you think 2/3 voted on the rest 16th threw the "so called" 27th Amendments so you have been taken for a BIGGER ride than us at least we know our enemies, here learn something about your nation thats been broke for almost 60 yaers www.new-enlightenment.com...

[edit on 13-2-2005 by SiberianTiger]

[edit on 13-2-2005 by SiberianTiger]

Originally posted by weirdo
I am suprised you live in a place that is so violant and you come across so interested in you govt actions abroad.

Well actually I said I "have lived" there. I have upgraded to a lightly nicer slum. Actually I live just outside of a slum now- all of the crack dealers are a full 5 miles away, or else they are being unusually quiet and sophisticated in the nieghborhood. Besides, not everybody belongs where they are.

People need to group together and get there voices heard to make a better life.America needs to but out of other countries as does Blair.Yes there aare possible threats to our security from rogue countries,but that has allways been a possibility.

Funny you mention the need to make our voices heard. How would you like to impersonate an American citizen? EastCoastKid and I have been talking about organizing an ATS effort to bombard a US congressman with letters, calls, appointment requests, etc pressuring him to get "withdrawl criteria" from Iraq. (not a withdrawl date, but a statement of 'when there are x many iraqi troops, its safe to leave'.) There will be a thread on it once we've got the details worked out. I think we've picked a target congressman, I'm just waiting for my partner in crime to talk to a moderator and get back to me.

At the moment there is an anti immigration message going around that could start problems with race hatred.
I`ve never met a Russian yet that can be diplomatic.

I love Irony It's not Russia's fault. I have a theory that living in cold places makes people mean. Most of America's roughest cities are up North and get snow. I think 9 times out of 10 somebody from Detroit would whip the hell out of somebody from Los Angeles.
You're not alone on the immigration thing either. I live in one of California's most liberal states and most of our conservatives got where they are by being strongly anti-immigration- as a result most of them have been in office for 10 years or more; California will vote you in for the rest of your natural life as long as you hate immigrants.

Originally posted by SiberianTiger
You have no Idea of what Diplomatic is hu, invading a nation when no threat is there, when your own constitution says you can't go outside the western hem for war, when your constatution does not call your country a DEMOCRACY but a Republic, when your costatution doesn't allow you to join NATO/or the UN, doesn't allow you to have a incume tax you dare talk about me NOT BEING diplomatic, when your leaders are so sure you Americans are so braidamaged that they can openly say NEW WORLD ORDER rehtoric infront of you, you dare call me undiplomatic?

[edit on 13-2-2005 by SiberianTiger]

I`m not American again please put the attitude in the cage and engage ones Brain so as not to look so ignorant

[edit on 13-2-2005 by weirdo]

Funny you mention the need to make our voices heard. How would you like to impersonate an American citizen? EastCoastKid and I have been talking about organizing an ATS effort to bombard a US congressman with letters, calls, appointment requests, etc pressuring him to get "withdrawl criteria" from Iraq. (not a withdrawl date, but a statement of 'when there are x many iraqi troops, its safe to leave'.) There will be a thread on it once we've got the details worked out. I think we've picked a target congressman, I'm just waiting for my partner in crime to talk to a moderator and get back to me.

No problem.Maybe you guys could take it one step further and colate from all nationalities.

Originally posted by weirdo
No problem.Maybe you guys could take it one step further and colate from all nationalities.

I'll mention the idea, but my personal feeling is that we need to present it as an effort by moderate American voters. Our goal is to pressure an influential republican to make noise and hopefully get that party to compromise with the anti-war left. Thing about Conservatives in America is that they're a tad on the nationalist side.

Originally posted by SiberianTiger
WOW I just proved to you your nation is run by a bunck of sionist lakeys and you just skipped all what I said and started talking about Russia, hahahaah here let me force you back on subject, you are wrong about YOUR constitiution no were in there is it U.S. called democratic republic, it's called A Constitutional Republic", an Amendment in YOUR constitution is only permissable if 2/3 of Congress (Both The House AND Senate 2/3 of EACH) and 2/3 of the Govenors vote yes on something then it's an Amendment the last Amerndment was the 15th Pal aster that the sionists have made you think 2/3 voted on the rest 16th threw the "so called" 27th Amendments so you have been taken for a BIGGER ride than us at least we know our enemies, here learn something about your nation thats been broke for almost 60 yaers www.new-enlightenment.com...

[edit on 13-2-2005 by SiberianTiger]

[edit on 13-2-2005 by SiberianTiger]

Well Siberian, I gotta hand it to you. Youve really frustrated the hell out of me. Youve taken the bar of dumbf--kery and raised it pretty high now. Its gonna be hard to beat, but Im sure you can.

Yes, We need 2/3 majority to make an amendment to the constitution. Do you know why? BECAUSE WE DONT WANT ONE IDIOT MAKING ALL THE RULES !!! You people did that. It worked out well for you and YOUR DISSOLVED NATION, DIDNT IT ???, And your WRONG>> We are a DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC....YOU HAVE TO TRUST ME, AS I AM AN AMERICAN, NOT SOME PSSD OFF RUSSIAN. And no, we dont need the governers to vote on it....

Also, ITS ZIONEST, not SIONEST, ok?? Grasp our language a little better before attempting to belittle us. You should worry about your own crumbling economy and looming civil war, before judging us. At least we are in a state of readiness which allows us to attack anyone, anywhere. You people cant even clear a theatre or school of your own HOMEGROWN terrorists, without killing everyone inside.

Your nothing more than another angry bitter looser who is mad at the world because he realized what a puny insignificant speck he and his country truely are on a global scale. Its ok. Id be mad if I lived in that hell hole, myself. Go drink somemore vodka and get back to me...

MODS --- I await the inevitible warning and point deduction if neccesary. This dude had it coming. If I wanted to get banned, I would let him have it worse. As it stands, Im ready for any punishment...

[edit on 13-2-2005 by spliff4020]

Originally posted by spliff4020
And no, we dont need the governers to vote on it....

from wikipedia
The first option must begin in Congress which, by a two-thirds vote (of a quorum) in each house, may initiate an amendment. Alternatively, the legislatures of two-thirds of the states may ask Congress to call a national convention to discuss and draft amendments. In either case, amendments must have the approval of the legislatures or conventions of three-fourths of the existing states before they become part of the Constitution

Also, ITS ZIONEST, not SIONEST, ok?? Grasp our language a little better before attempting to belittle us.

I am extremely prone to typos and I believe that nitpicking spelling is "low" tactic, however the proper spelling is ZIONIST. The "est" suffix means most, as in 'Nationalist pissing contests are the dumbest activity commonly seen on ATS'.

You should worry about your own crumbling economy and looming civil war, before judging us. At least we are in a state of readiness which allows us to attack anyone, anywhere. You people cant even clear a theatre or school of your own HOMEGROWN terrorists, without killing everyone inside.

I don't think everyone in the theatre in Moscow died actually, but the gas killed a few people in poor health I believe. To be fair, America has homegrown terrorists as well. One of the most famous had a Russian name ironically enough, but he was an American.
Let's stop pretending to be experts on eachother's nations and knock off this silly fight.

Your nothing more than another angry bitter looser

Well, I assume you mean that he is a LOSER, not that he is looser. Like I said, I make a lot of mistakes and I give less than an act of fornication about minor errors, but you asked for it this time.

MODS --- I await the inevitible warning and point deduction if neccesary. This dude had it coming. If I wanted to get banned, I would let him have it worse. As it stands, Im ready for any punishment...
[edit on 13-2-2005 by spliff4020]

Way to go. Sure you sank to his level and made yourself look even sillier than me, which is usually very hard to do, but you sure showed him. I bet he'll cry himself to sleep after he reads some of the stuff you said. Maybe that will change his ways. Or maybe he'll just write another ignorant post with excessive caps and way too many emoticons. Yeah, that second possibility seems WAY more likely. I think you just got yourself warned for nothing.

Originally posted by weirdo

And I hardly doubt that America will loose...But those russian MIGs...I think we got more air power on one carrier than Iran does in their entire air force. This would be to easy...

When will Americans stop underestimating people power.A couple of Iranians with ak`s on the New York underground at rush hour would achive more than an American air strike in Tehran

You must have the US confused with Spain. The only thing that will do is piss us off.