About the Vegas Killer... newest info

a reply to: Kandinsky

I had a very brief gambling phase. The watchers are compulsive gamblers who mentally count how many plays someone has versus how often the machine pays out. They haunt bars and casinos and hover near the machines waiting for them to be primed to pay. I'm not sure about every play having an equal chance of paying out. Myth or otherwise, the compulsive gamblers think they pay out according to how many plays there have been and how much cash is in its belly.

Heh. I know that's what they believe but that's what seems contradictory about it to me. For example, see this quote from the same article:

For experts like Mr. Paddock, who had played the game for 25 years, his brother said, each hand required only a few seconds of time. Ten hands could be played in a minute. The computer kept track of the financial tally.

It is a game of coldly calculated probabilities, played without hunches or emotion.

“Gut feel has nothing to do with it,” said Bob Dancer, a professional video poker player in Las Vegas who has written 10 books on the subject. “If I have a feeling that says, ‘I’m going for another heart,’ then I will lie down until the feeling goes away.”

A real math nerd, like he seems to be (he was reportedly an accountant to begin with as well as a real estate speculator and a hardcore video poker player) wouldn't fall prey to that sort of statistical misconception. They wouldn't think, "that machine is about to hit" because it hasn't hit in a while.

If you flip a quarter 10 times and it lands 9 times in a row on heads, that doesn't change that there's still a 50/50 chance of it landing on heads (or tails) on the 10th flip. It's always 50/50. Slot machines and video poker machines have RNGs that are certified by certification bodies and the machines are inspected and their performance monitored by regulatory agencies. In the case of video poker, the machine's payout percentage stems from the payout table it uses (how much each winning hand pays).

It's a human nature thing where belief dictates behaviour. I reckon most gamblers believe machines and roulette wheels will pay out after a vague period of time or plays. It's nuts in reality!

Sure, a lot of people, including hardcore gamblers believe in luck and are superstitious. Definitely. A lot of people pour money into machines believing that it's "just about to hit." They see signs in the reels too. They look for patterns to explain outcomes and believe things that are simply not true and then act on them and if they get lucky, it just reinforces their delusion.

That just doesn't sound like the kind of gambler this guy was. He seems like the type that knows the payout tables for all the high limit video poker machines in town on which he can play his chosen game, which is more than likely something like Deuces Wild as it has the best odds of the popular video poker games.

Fun fact: I wrote a Deuces Wild game (among others) for a cryptocurrency gambling site project that didn't go anywhere in the end.

The expression those sorts of gamblers use is "it's not gambling" because they know the math and they know how to play perfectly and they know that playing perfectly over time will yield a given result. So they're not wrong except you can still hit a bad streak and go bust, particularly if their betting beyond their bankroll.

All this gambling talk is making me want to gamble.

a reply to: Boadicea

Great post. One thing thats really messing with me is why would they have to blast the door if the security guard said it was ajar. So, security guard sees door ajar, Paddock fires 200 shots through door, but LVPD has to blast it? Very minor detail, yes, but while the 2 different stories? I'm not buying a single thing I've heard so far other than the numbers of victims, God bless them.

originally posted by: EternalShadow

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: theantediluvian

OMG..you just uncovered the MOTIVE! Paddock HATED COUNTRY MUSIC with a passion. He probably picked up a brochure in one of his prior visits to Vegas that was an advertisement for the Country Music concert. He then decided to make plans to go there and murder as many country music lovers as possible.

Maybe one of his X-wives drove him crazy by playing Conway Twitty songs all the time, or something.

If you're not being sarcastic, I mentioned that possibility 2 days ago. It was your OP actually!

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I was just putting it out there.

I do recall you saying that Paddock may not like country music. But now that we have evidence (thanks to antediluvian) that he didn't, your theory has to be taken seriously.

a reply to: Ukemobb

I just read your post 3 more times. Very very interesting. Reminds me of Statistics class, yet I still look for the roulette tables that haven't hit black in 10 spins. Based on my complete lack of expertise in anything, I agree with you that this guy was probably a mathematical genius. An evil genius. Like a mad scientist building a time machine, he built his death machine. That late night casino life is such a drug by itself. He lived in heaven. Wealthy, in control, little hottie (for his ugky ass) by his side. He spent his whole life building this life of wealth and indulgence and fun. Why why why why why do this? Did he hate Trump so much that he targeted his voters? Then why target the first place? Totally different crowd. What did he hate so much or was the challenge just to see if he could do it? The secrecy #s with me too. Nobody knew? Was he a Freemason or some other secretive group? I want some free Coors Lights at a $25 blackjack table right now.

I read on another forum that he was apparently an arms dealer for the CIA and frequently made deals in hotels in Vegas. He was apparently doing an arms deal with ISIS that night but haven't seen anything to verify the claims though. Probably isn't true but you never know

back in the 1980s I used to stop in at the local bar 'Sunnyside' at my Murrells inlet hometown...

if your insisting that all poker machines are following a predetermined payout pattern...consider this happened to me...

a poker machine where a 'winning hand' can be doubled with the correct High - Low card choice...

I got into a pizzing contest with the poker machine (yeah to this addict the machine had AI )
...I counted a combined sequence of 17 times-in-a-row, where I chose a High Card on the double-the-payout option and all 17 times the card came up Low Card and lost my bets.... 17 times in a row... even with allowing the HI-LO deal card to continue shuffling for various lengths of time

I used that poker machine lesson as a behavior changer, I quit joker-poker & gravitated to horses and dog racing...
never looked back, yep, I've had $10 grand days & I learned to make a $50 limit on my bets too...but even the once new-found Turf betting has been shelved for the last 18 years in favor of prepping

a reply to: theantediluvian

Payout tables have everything to do with a machines payout percentage and that's about all. There is no such thing as a successful professional video poker player, and anyone that gambles either for fun or for a living will tell you the same.

I'm honestly curious about the isis correlation myself, they have a big presence in the Philippines.

a reply to: Boadicea
Not fully qualified as much I think.
Kind of like an apprentice in training to become a physician
* I think *

originally posted by: Ukemobb
a reply to: Boadicea

Great post. One thing thats really messing with me is why would they have to blast the door if the security guard said it was ajar. So, security guard sees door ajar, Paddock fires 200 shots through door, but LVPD has to blast it? Very minor detail, yes, but while the 2 different stories? I'm not buying a single thing I've heard so far other than the numbers of victims, God bless them.

I wondered about that as well

a reply to: violet

Y'know. The old ats was a wonderful place. The modern one confuses me. ( long time lurker )It has been shown that this dude was employed by the government. Where's the ats guys going " ok. Off to the FOIA !!!!"? Old ats would have heard Jesse Marcel story , and looked at what he said , and tried to find some info. Modern ats would hear that he took a pain pill in 1932 and go " oh , BIG PHARMA !!! he was high !!! "

I don't understand.

a reply to: theantediluvian

All that you've posted doesn't point to a chap wishing to remain incognito and under the radar. I'm making an assumption here but if you were about to carry out a huge mass murder, wouldn't you want to remain quietly unobserved? Not bring attention to yourself by making noise complaints. He certainly wasn't hiding away in his room. No-one who met him or knew him has mentioned he was anxious nervous or acting strangely in fact he seems to have been acting completely "business as normal".

Now either he's a secret professional hit man with years of training, so severely mentally deranged he was able to carry out this attack without any feeling or emotion and manage to hide this side of him from friends family and his gf or he didn't have a clue what was about to go down

a reply to: PhyllidaDavenport

Yeah , a lot of this ain't making sense. Why did he have 10 guns in the room , when one would have sufficed for what he "did"? Why is his gf an Australian citizen , yet has been married to an American for 25 years ? Why is his government service not being mentioned at all , or very little ? Why would the government hire the son of a guy who escaped prison for 20 years ? Why did he have a completely empty house , except for a gun safe ? What was on the note ? Why has it taken 5 days ( and counting ) to get any real info ? We knew Roofs shoe size , his political affiliation, what he had for breakfast the day before , and what his farts smelled like within 24 hours....wtf is going on here ?

originally posted by: Lysergic
a reply to: Boadicea

Sheriff said no evidence of him recording himself.

Was for monitoring when anyone approached room... watching briefing.

Okay, I missed that part -- d'oh! Thank you.

So I guess no message left behind at all?

a reply to: theantediluvian

Thank you for the links and excerpts. It all sounded quite sad and lonely to me... even if he wanted it that way... culminating in this:

Imagine your life, for maybe 25 years, centered around "playing" a strictly procedural "game." It's not like playing live poker where there's psychology and competition between people. If he played tight to a strategy, it's like being a human bot. A hand of 5 cards is dealt (or many hands if you play multi-hand). You pick the cards to hold and then press "draw" and you either win or you lose. It's possible to know the absolute best way of playing every combination of 5 cards dealt. You can do it on autopilot (believe me).

I think I kinda get that part. I'm not much for video games, but I've played enough to understand the patterns. There's only so many. But that became his life. I'm still trying to wrap my head around it.

The part about him complaining about the country music from below was chilling though... knowing what we now know. May not have been a factor in the shooting, but still chilling in hindsight. Imagine how the guy down below must feel now!

originally posted by: Ukemobb
a reply to: Boadicea

Great post. One thing thats really messing with me is why would they have to blast the door if the security guard said it was ajar. So, security guard sees door ajar, Paddock fires 200 shots through door, but LVPD has to blast it? Very minor detail, yes, but while the 2 different stories? I'm not buying a single thing I've heard so far other than the numbers of victims, God bless them.

I missed that about the door being ajar. I'm going to hunt up a video of the Sheriff's press conference last night and watch it. I've only seen parts so far.

Could it have been a different door ajar? Maybe the shooter closed it after shooting at the security guard?

But I also saw that he reportedly fired 200 rounds through the door... wouldn't that rip one big huge hole in the door as well?

originally posted by: violet
a reply to: Boadicea
Not fully qualified as much I think.
Kind of like an apprentice in training to become a physician
* I think *

Yeah, I have to agree... it might explain the relatively high dosage. Though that might also depend on what condition the doctor was prescribing it for.

In any event, nothing stopped the Feds from letting him write that prescription or from letting the Pharmacist fill that prescription.

a reply to: PhyllidaDavenport

Now either he's a secret professional hit man with years of training, so severely mentally deranged he was able to carry out this attack without any feeling or emotion and manage to hide this side of him from friends family and his gf or he didn't have a clue what was about to go down

This is pretty much where my head is at. From what we're reading, this was all standard living to him... up to the shooting of course. So either he knew exactly what he was doing and was just going through the motions of normalcy until it was time to do the dirty deed. Or he was just doing what he normally does and then something snapped.

originally posted by: andrew778
I read on another forum that he was apparently an arms dealer for the CIA and frequently made deals in hotels in Vegas. He was apparently doing an arms deal with ISIS that night but haven't seen anything to verify the claims though. Probably isn't true but you never know

Variations of this theory are going around...but no one has answered that if this was the case, then why the concert shooting? They kill Paddock and then decide "Hey let's shoot some country music fans while we're at it?"

originally posted by: Wrapscalllion
a reply to: PhyllidaDavenport

Yeah , a lot of this ain't making sense. Why did he have 10 guns in the room , when one would have sufficed for what he "did"? Why is his gf an Australian citizen , yet has been married to an American for 25 years ? Why is his government service not being mentioned at all , or very little ? Why would the government hire the son of a guy who escaped prison for 20 years ? Why did he have a completely empty house , except for a gun safe ? What was on the note ? Why has it taken 5 days ( and counting ) to get any real info ? We knew Roofs shoe size , his political affiliation, what he had for breakfast the day before , and what his farts smelled like within 24 hours....wtf is going on here ?

I'm not trying to speak for Phyllida, but for myself, my default position in pretty much any and all situations involving the Feds is to blame the Feds first... I don't trust them any farther than I can throw them. So I'm ready and waiting to find out about their bad behavior, but I haven't seen it yet. We don't have enough information to know what's truly suspicious and what's just odd or taken out of context.

Regarding the multiple guns, from what I've read from our in-house firearm experts, that kind of constant and continual firing will melt down the firearm pretty quick, so he would need another to continue. Another poster suggested he might have intended to go to a gun show being held in Vegas and that's why he originally brought the firearms.

Regarding the girlfriend, I haven't heard anything about how she came/stayed in the United States, nothing about what kind of visa she held or her residency status. I don't know.

Paddock's government employment doesn't seem to have been in any sensitive areas, I'm not sure he would have needed any kind of government security clearance, so any background check might have been just basic. If I'm wrong, hopefully someone who knows better will correct me.

As far as I've read, only the Reno house was described as unfurnished. I'm not sure about the Mesquite house (those neighbors don't seem to be talking as much!). It is odd, and therefore questionable. For all I know, it may have just been a crash pad for when he was in Reno for business, and he mostly lived in Mesquite, or even in casinos! Or maybe that's where he stored (hid) his stash of guns -- and Heaven only knows what else.

As far as information, we've gotten information pretty darn fast in this case. I've seen nothing yet to fault the LV law enforcement agencies. They've been very direct and forthcoming with what they know. If/when that changes, we'll go from there.

originally posted by: Boadicea

originally posted by: Dudemo5
What I find strangest is the house with no furniture and the fridge-sized safe full of guns. Who lives in a house like that? I guess the answer is: someone who's going to snap and start murdering strangers.

Sadly, yes, we know that now.

I find his many part-time homes rather strange as well. Was he just restless and easily bored? Maybe business interests? Was the Reno house -- the one with no furniture and fridge-size safe -- really more for storage than a home? A hiding place -- for weapons and/or himself? A rendezvous point with those accomplices the Sheriff believes he had helping him?

So many questions...

I'd say his houses were a way for him to make more money from his gambling. If looked back on, the time from purchase to sell would be an indicator. Capital gains are no longer paid after 2 years of residence and if he bounced between them each long enough to trick the system into believing they were primary residences he would basically have his gambling money back out with no taxes in 2 years.