originally posted by: gortex
This short video was made by the BBC and features the opinions of two American security experts , they are David Maxwell a Director of the Center for
Security Studies and Korea veteran and Bruce Bechtol a former Pentagon analyst.
It's a chilling summary and I post it here for the attention of those who think the military option is a viable one in the current crisis.
Cant believe anyone will take this seriously
1) 300-400k KIA (!) in the first week, probably over 2 mill after 3 weeks
How would that work? Such casualty figures well exceed any comparable armed conflict ever.
During the last Korean War which lasted for 3 years, combined dead of all sides did not exceed 4 million.
You have to look at the Eastern Front in World War Two or the trenches in Western Europe during World War One to get similiar casualties.
But even then the claim is ridiculous. The German Invasion of Russia, Operation Barbarossa lastet for more than 5 month in 1941 resulted 3 million
dead or wounded.
North Korea simply doesnt have the firepower available to inflict comparable casualties in a fraction of the time.
2) North Korean Artillery will rain down destruction
Yes, the North Koreas will fire hundreds of thousands of shells and rockets over the DMZ.
They will devestate many border village and towns immediately south of the border. If the South is not taken by complete surprise most of those
settlements will be evacuated or in the procress of evacuating. Damage to infrastructure will be severe, but loss of life will be comparatively
The South Korean response will be quick and devestating. The ROK Army has an huge, mobile and modern artillery force. They are trained for counter
battery fire and maul the Northern artillery sides within hours, even without air strikes.
Much depends on whether or not South Korea will be able to mobilize their forces before the North strikes. Personally i dont think North Korea can
gear up to an attack without being noticed. Even with just 24h warning the South will have enough time to get ready.
3) North Korea will hit Seoul
Seoul is simply too far away from the northern side of the DMZ to be in range for like 99% of the Northern Artillery arsenal. This is true even if
they deploy their guns just outside the northern demarcation line which isnt the case. They have a couple of really long range, high caliber guns but
those are hard to hide and will be taken out by the South Korean Air Force within the first minutes of general war.
What the North can do is to bombard Seoul with ballistic missiles. It would wiser to aim them at military air fields and reserve depots but whatever.
Unless the US deploys all of their THAAD and Patriot batterys to Korea before the war (which is an unrealistic assumption), they wont have enough ABM
capacity in the theater to stop more than a fraction of the missiles.
As for probable damage – compare it to the V1/V2 attacks on London in WW2. The damage to infrastructure will be servere, casualties wont exceed 100k
at worst unless the North uses WMD.
4) US ground troops in Korea
This wont be comparable to for example the Invasion of Iraq. South Korea is more than able to handle the North Korean ground threat on their own. They
have build up an impressive army superior to the North in every relevant category. Give them enough air support and they will not only stop the Kim
within miles of the border but drive the North back very quickly.
The US will fly in quick reaction forces from the XVIII Airborne Corps and the 3rd Marine Division from Japan to stabilize the situation but the idea
of a general US Army deployment with a dozen HBCTs or whatever from ‚Texas‘ is ludicrous. Especially since the US Army has already prepoistioned
several brigades worth of military equipment in South Korea and Japan. If needed they’ll just fly troops in and use the equipment already in
5) How the war will end
The war will end within weeks once China is geared up to end proceedings by going in and occupy the North. China has no interest in full scale warfare
between the Koreas in their backyard. They like a unified Korea and US troops on their borders even less. They wont side with Kim either, an armed
confrontation with the US is not in the interest at all.
Ending the war by swiftly occupying North Korea makes them look good in the eyes of the international community, allows them to install a saner puppet
regime and gets the US troops out of Korea for good if they handle it right.
6) North Korea using nukes
If you fear their nukes at this point, you’ll should better deal with them now. It’ll only get worse.