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North Korea: What would a war look like ?

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posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 05:59 AM
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This short video was made by the BBC and features the opinions of two American security experts , they are David Maxwell a Director of the Center for Security Studies and Korea veteran and Bruce Bechtol a former Pentagon analyst.
It's a chilling summary and I post it here for the attention of those who think the military option is a viable one in the current crisis.


Their opinion does not include responses form China and Russia to a preemptive strike as that is anyone's guess but their summary shows the horror that could await if the President makes the wrong move.


edit on 24-9-2017 by gortex because: Korean mind waves




posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 06:07 AM
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a reply to: gortex

After 8 years of an idiot running the country,I have faith in current admin,so far not giving taxpayer money away,upholding laws,for once a President with taxpayers first agenda,NK is a sabre rattle,and Kim has a toy one



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 06:26 AM
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I think that a war is growing ever more likely.

It only seems like a matter of time before someone shoots first and the entire thing starts to escalate very quickly into full blown war.



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 06:32 AM
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a reply to: gortex

Kim's seen what happened to Mussolini so being beaten, spat on and lynched will be one of his nightmares. If that doesn't touch a nerve, I'm sure he's seen how Saddam and Gadaffi went out. This is why I think he'll shy away from outright war - self-preservation and greed.

Firstly, he cannot win a war and secondly he'll lose his political power and life. If the time comes when he thinks his power and life are seriously threatened he'll probably do what's in the video and take much of SK down with him and possibly parts of Japan too.

It's a pity those so-called satellite laser platforms aren't as amazing as the rumours say. Otherwise incinerating him and his advisors would be a diplomatic master stroke. Standing there taking selfies with his generals as the crowds cheer. Pew pew pew! Kim Jong the charcoal smudge.


Crap humour aside, it's good to see your video and put the stakes in perspective. There'll be no precision strikes or MOABs destroying the Jong Un power base without wholesale destruction of neighbours and massive loss of life. Maybe my assessment is BS and he fires first? Same result, but we get to ride a higher horse out of there.



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 06:43 AM
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The truth is in the money.

Look how much they are increasing the nations defense budget. 37 Billion more than the current proposal 603 billion with a 65 billion war budget on top of that. Something is on the horizon and if the cards are played poorly, it will be WW3.

I feel dark days are coming.



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 06:49 AM
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Good video and the only exception I take is the two to three weeks of supplies.. Russia and or China will step up and supply them I have little doubt.

Snarl was based in Korea for several years and one of the intelligent briefings said something like (if I remember correctly) one or two square kilometers of Soul could be destroyed by the NK artillery alone every few seconds. The South is basically totally destroyed unless the first strike on NK can do more than most of us believe possible.



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 07:00 AM
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a reply to: 727Sky

It doesn't bear thinking about does it? A forward looking, tolerant and meritocratic society being torched by its malevolent, retarded neighbour. I can think of a few nations the world at large wouldn't necessarily miss and SK isn't amongst them; some could go and the Earth would be a better place without them.

It certainly puts the anxieties in SK in stark and disturbing context.

edit on 9.24.2017 by Kandinsky because: typo



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 07:00 AM
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The first month.... dropping bombs, the second month dropping relief goods, and a winter looming ahead, with which to feed the NK people for the next couple years.



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 07:06 AM
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When does the propaganda kick in ?

The might of the UN ( cough ) should surely be able to take over NK T.V. ... just showing the lifestyles of their Korean Brothers and Sisters !!

Suggesting ... you can have this too !



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 07:07 AM
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originally posted by: gortex
This short video was made by the BBC and features the opinions of two American security experts , they are David Maxwell a Director of the Center for Security Studies and Korea veteran and Bruce Bechtol a former Pentagon analyst.
It's a chilling summary and I post it here for the attention of those who think the military option is a viable one in the current crisis.


Cant believe anyone will take this seriously

Lets see
1) 300-400k KIA (!) in the first week, probably over 2 mill after 3 weeks
How would that work? Such casualty figures well exceed any comparable armed conflict ever.
During the last Korean War which lasted for 3 years, combined dead of all sides did not exceed 4 million.
You have to look at the Eastern Front in World War Two or the trenches in Western Europe during World War One to get similiar casualties.
But even then the claim is ridiculous. The German Invasion of Russia, Operation Barbarossa lastet for more than 5 month in 1941 resulted 3 million dead or wounded.
North Korea simply doesnt have the firepower available to inflict comparable casualties in a fraction of the time.

2) North Korean Artillery will rain down destruction
Yes, the North Koreas will fire hundreds of thousands of shells and rockets over the DMZ.
They will devestate many border village and towns immediately south of the border. If the South is not taken by complete surprise most of those settlements will be evacuated or in the procress of evacuating. Damage to infrastructure will be severe, but loss of life will be comparatively light.
The South Korean response will be quick and devestating. The ROK Army has an huge, mobile and modern artillery force. They are trained for counter battery fire and maul the Northern artillery sides within hours, even without air strikes.
Much depends on whether or not South Korea will be able to mobilize their forces before the North strikes. Personally i dont think North Korea can gear up to an attack without being noticed. Even with just 24h warning the South will have enough time to get ready.

3) North Korea will hit Seoul
Seoul is simply too far away from the northern side of the DMZ to be in range for like 99% of the Northern Artillery arsenal. This is true even if they deploy their guns just outside the northern demarcation line which isnt the case. They have a couple of really long range, high caliber guns but those are hard to hide and will be taken out by the South Korean Air Force within the first minutes of general war.
What the North can do is to bombard Seoul with ballistic missiles. It would wiser to aim them at military air fields and reserve depots but whatever. Unless the US deploys all of their THAAD and Patriot batterys to Korea before the war (which is an unrealistic assumption), they wont have enough ABM capacity in the theater to stop more than a fraction of the missiles.
As for probable damage – compare it to the V1/V2 attacks on London in WW2. The damage to infrastructure will be servere, casualties wont exceed 100k at worst unless the North uses WMD.

4) US ground troops in Korea
This wont be comparable to for example the Invasion of Iraq. South Korea is more than able to handle the North Korean ground threat on their own. They have build up an impressive army superior to the North in every relevant category. Give them enough air support and they will not only stop the Kim within miles of the border but drive the North back very quickly.
The US will fly in quick reaction forces from the XVIII Airborne Corps and the 3rd Marine Division from Japan to stabilize the situation but the idea of a general US Army deployment with a dozen HBCTs or whatever from ‚Texas‘ is ludicrous. Especially since the US Army has already prepoistioned several brigades worth of military equipment in South Korea and Japan. If needed they’ll just fly troops in and use the equipment already in country.

5) How the war will end
The war will end within weeks once China is geared up to end proceedings by going in and occupy the North. China has no interest in full scale warfare between the Koreas in their backyard. They like a unified Korea and US troops on their borders even less. They wont side with Kim either, an armed confrontation with the US is not in the interest at all.
Ending the war by swiftly occupying North Korea makes them look good in the eyes of the international community, allows them to install a saner puppet regime and gets the US troops out of Korea for good if they handle it right.

6) North Korea using nukes
If you fear their nukes at this point, you’ll should better deal with them now. It’ll only get worse.



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 07:08 AM
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I think Kim knows that if he strikes first anywhere it will be over with rather quickly, so unless he suddenly decides that he wants to go out with a bang, I don't think he's going to do that, unless he gets a green light from China that it's okay.

I do fear that he's going to keep trying to be "clever" and one of his missiles that he shoots into the ocean are going to missfire and end up falling onto something that could trigger it all.

I certainly hope we do not do a first strike over words. US has a bad rep as it is now due to places like Iraq and Libya. Considering what NK can do rather quickly if we did do a first strike of any kind, it would be bad. I'd much rather it be for a good reason (IE Kim does go nuts and actually starts something).

Keep an eye on the military dependents. If the suddenly are evac'd out of Seoul, then it's time to really worry.



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 07:12 AM
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a reply to: eriktheawful

Yes regarding that ...

Has Trump promised more than the world sees appropriate in returned belicose ?

Who loses face in all of this ?

The loser.



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 07:14 AM
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originally posted by: Timely
a reply to: eriktheawful

Yes regarding that ...

Has Trump promised more than the world sees appropriate in returned belicose ?

Who loses face in all of this ?

The loser.


Eta : I read on these boards that US military deployed to SK are not permitted to bring family.

It is considered an active military zone.



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 07:35 AM
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a reply to: Timely

I lived there from 1976 to 1979 with my mom and sister. The 8th Army base is huge. Let me see if I can find a Google Map image of it.

Here we go, this is part of the housing area at Youngsan. The red dot is the duplex house I lived in:



Here is a picture of me during the winter of 1976 in the front yard of that house:



But the answer to your question is: Yes, military dependents live in S. Korea even today.

ETA:

Picture of Mr. Song who used to come once a month and shampoo the carpets. I always knew he was there when I'd find all the livingroom furniture outside, heh:




edit on 9/24/2017 by eriktheawful because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 07:51 AM
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a reply to: eriktheawful

Thanks for the pics and heads up !

That base is humungous.

Dunno where that info got twisted ..



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 07:51 AM
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a reply to: gortex

There is a theory bein floated that the recent "earthquake" was actually a kinetic weapon launched from space. This weapon supposedly has the force of a nuclear warhead with no radiation or detonation. The theory is that these "Rods from God" are not picked up on radar and North Korea won't admit they've been attacked for fear of looking weak.



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 07:51 AM
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a reply to: gortex

I understand that diplomacy is preferable, but that doesn't work with Kim. And neither do sanctions. Kim has made many threats to the US and our allies and has the capability of using nukes and EMP's against the US.

So what do we do - just sit there and allow Kim to continue making progress on his nuke program.....continue to allow missile and nuke tests (which, one of these days, is bound to be the real deal and not just a test) or do a pre-emptive strike and take away his ability to annilihate us?

There will be loss of life, but it wouldn't be as bad should we allow this to progress to an all-out war. I'm guessing that, given Trump's capability to shoot off his mouth at the worse possible time, we are very close to an all-out war. Check out this tidbit I found last night on Twitter:



A pre-emptive strike is the most viable option. Preferable? Absolutely not. But it appears that we've got no other choice unless we want to just sit back and watch him build up his nuclear arsenal....not to mention his chemical and biological wmd's.

I don't want a fruit loop like Kim to have his fingers on that button.



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 07:58 AM
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a reply to: eriktheawful

Are there any members of ATS who serve in that area, or who know someone there?

It would be great if we could get first-hand info on what's going on.



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 08:01 AM
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a reply to: mightmight

Not going to argue any of what you posted. I was stationed there (infantry) before we evacuated most of our forces for the Iraq war. We were soberly informed that if the Nort attacked, Seoul would be overrun in 4 hours. They said this was expected and that any reinforcements would be deployed south of Seoul. Not very reassuring for us grunts patrolling the DMZ or based in Camp Hovey between the DMZ ans Seoul.



posted on Sep, 24 2017 @ 08:04 AM
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a reply to: dianajune

There is nothing we can do , the only country with the power to stop this is China , Trump continually using language like "little rocket man" does nothing other than show him for the petty fool he is.
Sadly interventions by US Presidents past and present has brought us to the point we are at now , sometimes it's best to play the long game if that's the only real option available because the alternative isn't really an alternative.



I don't want a fruit loop like Kim to have his fingers on that button.

I could say the same about President Trump.




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