$15 minimum wage, Illegal immigration and Automation...

originally posted by: MantheDevilsApe

originally posted by: MantheDevilsApe

originally posted by: TerryMcGuire
a reply to: pavil

Yes it is quite the conundrum. It just doesn't add up. And it hasn't added up for decades and decades. Yet as cut and dried as your question is, it still does not take into account the larger problems. What, with immigrants and robotics and automation and off shore out sourcing, what will happen to all the people who can't get jobs because those jobs are not there.

A traditional conservative talking point in this has been that the people who don't have jobs is because they are lazy and do not want to work or work only when they want to work or any number of other 'place the blame on the undeserving worker argument''. And the old liberal point has been go to college, get more schooling so that you can compete in the system.

The answer to the problem of low wages and lack of work due to the points you mention 'cannot be solved because the whole system of supply and demand is out dated. Especially when that very supply and demand is so easily manipulated by those who are in CONTROL of the supply and demand cycle.

see?, we don't have a "scarcity of jobs" problem, or a "stagnation / low wages" problem. We have a "people" problem. There are too many of us. And letting literally millions of other "people" is increasing the "people problem" exponentially. Grime as it may be, it will eventually come down to "us or them".

edit on 08/022017 by MantheDevilsApe because: D'oh!

originally posted by: pavil
......I guess we can all have a job in the real "Resistance" then.

That has it's own issue. Most people are still just going to be cannon fodder. The resistance would be all about programming a better machine with the grunts suicide bombing facilities.

a reply to: Aazadan

The real resistance is as simple as drive the car you are driving for another couple of years.

Fix the vacuum instead of buying a new one.

Don't buy anything unless you will literally die with out it.

This would be a blow that would have the "consumer" in the drivers seat in short order.

originally posted by: bigfatfurrytexan
a reply to: pavil

Its pretty simple: deign the minimum wage to be $15/hr, and watch the value of the dollar adjust. $5 will be the new $1, and pennys won't be used anymore.

What would your solution be, out of curiosity? Do you think that a nation that had a thriving middle class 2 generations ago is going to make working the fields the new middle class job market? Is that where we, as a nation are headed?

The value of the dollar will adjust to the amount of money in the system. More dollars=lower value. If demand for dollars grows, as happens when you flatten wealth inequality, as everyone has some purchasing power and wants more, then increases to wages don't result in reductions to the value of a dollar. In contrast, if you give people money, but don't give them anything tangible to spend it on, it sits in savings, demand for dollars declines, and the value lowers. All due to the velocity of money.

In an ideal economic system, we want money changing hands a bunch. At the current minimum wage, a full third of our population simply isn't exchanging any money as it all goes to food and rent. Flattening the wealth gap, which increasing minimum wage would do (and for the record, I think $15 is too low... though I think it should be a slow and steady raise, and tied to cost of living, county by county) would boost the economy.

I actually have a few solutions here, but none are popular because they all go back to my main premise which is that American workers are ineffective because they're under educated. If I were somehow elected President, this would be on my agenda to Make America Prosperous Again:
#1. Restructure high school to match the college system. Students start as undeclared and take general education for the first 2 years. By year 3, students break into groups like wood/metal shop, engineering, math, etc... and take proper classes. Ideally with summer internshis. Do the same in year 4 with further specializations. Add a 5th year for finishing skills like finance, resume writing, personal finance, and negotiation. And work.

Time for these classes would be found, either by cutting the college prep classes for the people who aren't on those paths, or by cutting the dead end stuff like PE for those that are.

#2. Remove all federal loan programs for students. Each university now provides it's own loans at it's own terms, for admission. Students regain the ability to declare bankruptcy on these debts. Universities now become responsible for keeping costs competitive and quality high. Use federal subsidies to help universities make the transtion over a period of years.

#3. Change college to a 6 year process for all non phd bound students.
Year 1: Declare first major. Get novice certificate (presumably good for entry level work).
Year 2: Declare second major. Get Associates degree in first major, minor in second.
Year 3: Get Associates Degree in second major.
Year 4: Get Bachelors in first major, minor in second.
Year 5: Get Bachelors in second major.
Year 6: Get Masters in first major.

At each year completed, you get something useful to the job market, rather than education being all or nothing. This would also help in getting unique solutions to problems, when we're all polymaths.

This would double to triple the number of jobs that any given candidate is qualified for. Currently, we have jobs like Software Engineers that are failing to meet their employment goals by millions per year, while we have other like business that are over stocked.

We're not going to get the ratios balanced correctly, automation will see to that. So what we can do, is cross train everyone whose willing, so that they can work a variety of jobs in a variety of industries.

originally posted by: conscientiousobserver
a reply to: pavil

There wouldn't be millions of illegals if there weren't hundreds of companies that hired them. I have seen this first hand. Companies that hire illegal immigrants because they are willing to weld for $12/ an hour in horrible conditions. Yet they proudly say their products are made in America. Conveniently leaving out the fact that 70% of their workforce is non American and at least 50% are illegal. It's ridiculous and can be directly related to capitalism and the lack of regulation. Both Republican ideals.

This is why we need to invest in education. As an educated population allows for advanced innovation and for entrepreneurship to expand exponentially. Which would create far more jobs in manufacturing, shipping, customer service, and retail than cutting taxes for fortune 500 companies.

An educated population still needs welders though, and more than that many people will be happy to weld rather than sit in a classroom.

Education will never increase that welders wage. If anything, education can only lower it by creating new technology that makes welding easier to do.

originally posted by: pavil

originally posted by: bigfatfurrytexan
a reply to: pavil

Its pretty simple: deign the minimum wage to be $15/hr, and watch the value of the dollar adjust. $5 will be the new $1, and pennys won't be used anymore.

What would your solution be, out of curiosity? Do you think that a nation that had a thriving middle class 2 generations ago is going to make working the fields the new middle class job market? Is that where we, as a nation are headed?

I don't know where we are headed and I'm not for a mandated by govt. Minimum wage. All it would do is like you said, find a new value for the dollar. I don't even see how UBI would work where some are still working and the rest on the dole. Anyone here think the Rich will give up their power and wealth to have UBI?

I honestly don't see how society functions with 70 to 50% employment, which seems to be where we are headed. If I had the answers, I'd be a rich man and people would be wanting to take my obscene wealth.

Maybe Musk is right, let's move to Mars.

UBI costs very little over what we're currently spending. It would be easy to accomplish. UBI would make the rich richer, they would be fine with it.

Sooner or later a major change is going to happen. It won't be economic, it will be mathematical. Either the Riemann Hypothesis will destroy every digital security system in the world, supply lines will shrink by 99% from P vs NP, and so on. Sooner or later, a mathematical breakthrough is going to be made, and when it is... the whole world will change, largely in ways that huge swatchs of labor will no longer be necessary. If automation doesn't get there first, math will.

UBI is the only way forward.

originally posted by: seasonal
a reply to: Aazadan

The real resistance is as simple as drive the car you are driving for another couple of years.

Fix the vacuum instead of buying a new one.

Don't buy anything unless you will literally die with out it.

This would be a blow that would have the "consumer" in the drivers seat in short order.

You're saying to just choose not to buy things. That reduces the value of money going through the system, which lowers the velocity and in turn inflation reduces the value of your savings. The end result is that you're still out your money, and you've gotten no goods in exchange for it.

I don't see how in today's world one can be for illegal Immigration as automation chips away hard at existing jobs. If you want to raise wages, the market has to eventually support that increased wage. Some people want to have it both ways.

Your thoughts?

Because your average American worker won't pick tomatoes for 5 cents a bushel. Or pick grapes in Napa for dimes on the dollar. You think they are stealing jobs that American workers actually are willing to do? funny..

A for-example.. in California, farmers are finding it so difficult right now to find people willing to work for them, even after raising the pay to 16 bucks an hour, they are having to cut out crops they'd normally grow. Even offering more benefits now.. higher pay.. a solid year-round salary.. and they can't get enough workers.

As Obama started tightening the borders, and now Trump is going nuts trying to get all immigrants out, people are finding they have shortages for the type of labor your now-typical lazy American is not willing to do for the money. So I'll believe this "stealing jobs" theory, when the jobs that immigrants did, are actually worked by Americans instead. I'm sure in some fields it will free some jobs up, but it's not even remotely close to the ultra high-powered America powered by Americans and making jillions of $$$ for everyone! rah-rah campaign as Trump paints it.

a reply to: Aazadan

My point was that an educated populace would create more welding positions as well as many other positions. Including those that require higher learning. Back to the welding many big companies require their welders to be certified which requires classroom time. Which creates more teaching jobs as well.

Lastly my father in law is a welder/ journeyman for the pipefitters union and has to go through a lot of classroom training to do his job in nuclear plants across the world. He now makes over $100,000 a year because he was able to get a higher level of education in his field of work. Allowing him to work on projects much more complicated than welding steel carts together for $25,000 a year.

a reply to: fleabit

Try $17.

A for-example.. in California, farmers are finding it so difficult right now to find people willing to work for them, even after raising the pay to 16 bucks an hour, they are having to cut out crops they'd normally grow. Even offering more benefits now.. higher pay.. a solid year-round salary.. and they can't get enough workers

I have a question about the minimum wage in general... what is it supposed to represent? The minimum... what? I mean, I understand the basic idea that it is the minimum amount that can be paid to a worker. What is it based on though? When the minimum wage gets decided upon, what is it supposed to... amount to? Is it the minimum amount required for a person working full time to live on? Only getting the bottom line most basic needed items to survive? I've heard before, many times, how minimum wage isn't even supposed to support a person because it's 'for kids doing summer jobs' and things along those lines which is why it doesn't matter when people say it isn't a living wage. I feel silly for not knowing or not being able to understand exactly what it is, but the fact is I hear lots of different opinions and ideas on what it is supposed to be. It's supposed to be able to support a person, or no it isn't, or even being able to support family members, or more than the most basic needs.

If more and more automation comes along and there are fewer jobs, and I know lots of people say 'well machines and computers could never replace my job', but who knows for sure in five, ten, fifteen years what the truth will be... then what happens? What happens when there really are not enough jobs for everyone even if people were willing to do... whatever. If there simply did not exist enough jobs. Would there be no minimum wage at that point? Or would more people get the minimum because people would be willing to do things for less just to have a job? What happens to the people? Does everyone that can't get a job, because they don't exist, simply get welfare or unemployment or a special living stipend or something with the number of people getting it constantly growing as jobs continue to decrease and never expand? Are 'busy work' kinds of jobs created just to give people work even if they really aren't needed? There will always be jobs and work... but what level of unemployment is needed before there has to be a fundamental kind of shift in how jobs and employment are looked at? Do you think it will ever really happen where there are no jobs to go around?

originally posted by: conscientiousobserver
a reply to: Aazadan

My point was that an educated populace would create more welding positions as well as many other positions. Including those that require higher learning. Back to the welding many big companies require their welders to be certified which requires classroom time. Which creates more teaching jobs as well.

Lastly my father in law is a welder/ journeyman for the pipefitters union and has to go through a lot of classroom training to do his job in nuclear plants across the world. He now makes over $100,000 a year because he was able to get a higher level of education in his field of work. Allowing him to work on projects much more complicated than welding steel carts together for $25,000 a year.

Technology will make it such that those certifications will be what you can do at entry level... it will not be a path to riches, and it doesn't matter how many illegals you kick out.

a reply to: rshackleford

wiki

Minimum Wage History. A federal minimum wage was first set in 1938. The graph shows nominal (blue diamonds) and real (red squares) minimum wage values. Nominal values range from $0.25/hr in 1938 to the current $7.25/hr.

The average worker is poorer so the few can be a little bit richer.

Minimum Wage Would Be $21.72 If It Kept Pace With Increases In Productivity: Study says
www.huffingtonpost.com...

5 pages and no one has hit on the simple solution to providing more jobs overnight. Simply lower the hours required for full time work. If the work week was lowered to 30 hours a week, we would have 25% more jobs by virtue of needing more people to fulfill the hours that would have been worked by current employees.
How is this not a solution more people are in favor for?

a reply to: randomtangentsrme

Oh just change the profit motive for corps.....

There is a reason that no one has mentioned that. Corps are about profits, you just introduced a huge cost increase with 25% more employees with the same production.

a reply to: seasonal

I understand that. Just as I understand corporations are people. But all it takes is for a law to get put before the public to vote (state level). . .
After that, it's a snowball rolling down a hill.

Or is this thread not looking for solutions?

a reply to: randomtangentsrme

Can you imagine the $$$$ that would be spent in a state election to reduce the # of hours legally from 40 to 30 by big corps? (if a state election can trump Federal law)

It would make the anti-label GMO money look like pennies.

The system is broken and those who can fix it have almost all the cards. Until the "consumers" band together like they did in the fight for civil rights, it is piss in the wind.

.

a reply to: mysterioustranger


Yes, and there may be a backlash against it. People may reject automation for places where actual human beings work. Never underestimate the power of empathy or the power of disgust at greed.

a reply to: theantediluvian

Always good to hear your responses theantediluvian! Your reply is spot on!

Thanks.............MS

a reply to: openminded2011

You know? I think our educational system, job, career and potential lifetime incomes-to expect have been unrealistic for a good while now.

I know a college student who said "Im in all this student loan debt now and my career choice is bloated with a zillions others whose parents said to stay in school and get a good job".

He owes somewhere around $20k...and his major was Business Admin.....