posted on Feb, 9 2005 @ 05:58 PM
An Exercise in Futuristic Scenario Building
The year is 2015
1. Taiwan declares independence.
2. China declares war on Taiwan, attacks Taiwanese Capital (Taipei) with missiles and mobilizes it's troops along it's southern border to prepare
for a Normandy style landing with a prelude to a naval invasion of Taiwan.
3. Taiwan meanwhile appeals for intervention to retain its territorial integrity from an imperialist, aggressive & militarily crazy China. The United
States brings a resolution to the UN Security Council to condemn the aggressive Chinese behavior over Taiwan. China vetoes the resolution.
4. America summons its allies & friends in the region & worldwide to come to the defense of Taiwan. America mobilizes its vast pacific war machine.
Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Japan, United Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Great Britain, Vietnam, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland,
Romania, The Czech Republic, Turkey, Israel, Canada & Brazil join the formidable American troop mobilizations. America along with its allies launches
the biggest naval protective operation after the second WW. The operation is code-named Liberation China.
5. Some notable American partners among them, Russia & India stay neutral & adopt a wait & watch strategy. Simultaneously, China is reassured of India
& Russia’s professed neutrality for the time being. Other Islamic countries such as Pakistan, Iran & Saudi Arabia also stay out of the conflict, but
lodge their protest in the UN against the allied operations in the Far -East.
6. China launches air strikes with Russian acquired Sukhoi –30s, Taiwan counter attacks with F-16s. The biggest air battle over the Taiwan Strait
ensues. Meanwhile the US & its allies block the sea-lanes in the Malacca’s, the South China Sea & the busy Pacific sea-lanes, and station warships &
aircraft carriers along the coast of southern & central China. This is a formidable naval blockade to choke Oil & other essential cargo from entering
7. China is being choked economically, the Shanghai & Hong Kong stock exchanges plunge to their lowest ever levels. America freezes Chinese assets
overseas, in order to break China’s economic & financial stability. China tries to break the allied naval blockade, but after being challenged to a
battle declines any engagement with US & allies naval warships.
8. China tries to break through the naval blockade again, but on being vigorously challenged for a fight the Chinese navy backtracks. The allied
navies mount an entire semi-circle naval siege of the north & south china seas with tremendous success from the allied war-angle.
9. The air battle over the Taiwan Strait intensifies, resulting in heavy loss of aircraft for the PLAAF. Taiwan Air force quickly regains air
superiority over China in a matter of a week of dog -fighting.
10. Meanwhile China attempts to break the naval blockade once again at two points, near the Tonkin Gulf & the other near the Yellow Sea with very
limited success. The Japanese & Korean Navies launch a combined attack in the Yellow Sea region to fend of Chinese naval maneuvers, while the combined
American, Vietnamese, Philippine & Singaporean naval onslaught in the Tonkin Gulf seriously impairs Chinese naval capabilities in the South China Sea.
11. The Americans simultaneously launch a concerted counterattack by deploying B-2 bombers to pre-empt Chinese troop movements to the central coast
bordering the Shanghai area. These attack PLA troop formations in central & north china to prevent the Chinese from consolidating their strength in
China’s important industrial hinterland, and preventing them from attacking Japanese & Korean forces in the Yellow Sea region. The onslaught by B-2
bombers results in heavy Chinese casualties.
12. The Chinese Central Military Command decides to pull away PLA divisions from Tibet, Nei Mongol, Dongbei & Xinxiang to reinforce their beleaguered
counterparts in China Proper who are facing a combined onslaught by a formidable allied war machine. This Chinese decision is taken in view of the
professed neutrality of India & Russia.
13. China decides to fire nuclear tipped IRBMs on key targets in Japan & Korea to break the naval impasse in the Yellow sea. This Chinese move
backfires as the NMD Shield intercepts the missiles over Japan & Korea & renders the attack ineffective. The allies respond by counterattacking
Chinese military formations with TNW ( Tactical Nuclear Weapons or mini-nukes ) . China sustains very heavy losses of troops. ( approx half a million
PLA troops are reported dead in this lethal attack )
14. Russia has meanwhile put its troops near the Mongolian & Manchurian fronts on the highest alert in attack formations to prevent any spillover from
the fighting inside Chinese territory. Secret parleys between the Japanese, Koreans & Russians results in Russia agreeing to invade from the north
with the Japanese & Koreans attacking from the Yellow Sea & Yalu river region.
15. India meanwhile sensing the depletion of Chinese troop deployment-levels in Tibet launches a major invasion from Ladakh & the NEFA region, citing
as reason the liberation of Chinese –held Indian territory in Askai Chin. Indian transport planes airlift troops, artillery guns & tanks across the
Himalayan ranges into the Tibetan plateau. They capture major mountain passes, bridges, highways & airfields in a lighting quick military blitzkrieg
across south-western Tibet and manage in quickly consolidating their position of strength in Central Tibet & Amdo. They get massive air support from
USAAF fighters stationed in Central Asia. Together the USAAF & IAF fighter jets inflict heavy losses on PLA units retreating from Tibet. The Indian
Army gradually inches towards the Yunnan province despite stiff resistance from PLA units stationed there.
16. Pakistan, Iran & Saudi Arabia form an Islamic bloc and try again to table a resolution in the UN along with components from the Arab League to
oppose any allied operations in East Asia. This is a last ditch attempt to conjure up world opinion to prevent the break up of China. But America
warns this rogue Muslim grouping of serious consequences if they continue to put roadblocks for the allies.
17. On the far north-western frontier of China bordering Central Asia, America along with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan & Russia amasses troops & air
capabilities in strike formations along the Tien Shan ranges, a major air assault is launched against the remaining PLA units in Xinxiang. The allies
advance into Taklimakan & onwards into the Gobi & chase PLA units to the last man. East Turkestan is proclaimed a free republic.
18. Tibetan & Uighur Nationalists are installed in the autonomous regions ( Tibet & East Turkestan ). Race Riots ensue where Han Chinese are
systematically targeted & massacred and their property looted & burned down by the native Tibetans & Uighurs. The nationalists give an ultimatum to
the entire Han Chinese population to move out of these regions or face the music. There is a massive exodus of Han Chinese from both these regions in
order to escape retaliation. The Buddhist Republic of Tibet is proclaimed jointly by India & the United States. The Dalai Lama returns to his homeland
from exile in India.
19. In China the economic situation turns grave & the internal security apparatus collapses. There is utter lawlessness in the major cities of
Southern China. Democracy dissidents have started targeting communist party members. Inflation is running at an all time high of 1200%. The Chinese
currency has lost most of its value and is trading at 50,000 renminbi to a dollar. There is a virtual blackout in the industrial heartland of
Guangdong and adjoining regions as well as acute fuel & food shortages all across south & central China due to the allied naval blockade.
20. Vietnam & Thailand launch a major invasion (comprising largely of their respective mountain divisions) of China from the mountainous southeast
adjoining their territory. The USAAF gives them air support and the Indian army, which in the meantime has reached Kunming in Yunnan, aids these
troops. The PLA divisions flee towards China proper after suffering major reversals. Taiwanese & US navies meanwhile battle hard with the Chinese navy
to capture the Island of Hainan. Finally, the US wrests Hainan Island from Chinese control after a brief naval engagement along the Tonkin Gulf. An
independent protectorate of Hainan is declared under Taiwanese control.
21. Combined Russian & Mongolian forces fight along side to capture Inner Mongolia from Chinese occupation. Finally having been caught between Korean
& Japanese forces along the yellow sea & Russian & Mongolian forces in the North the PLA units abandon their positions and fall back leaving Russia in
control of large territories in Manchuria & Inner Mongolia.
22. Remaining PLA troops surrender enmasse in Inner Mongolia & Manchuria. Reports emerge of PLA surrenders in Tibet & Yunnan as India consolidates its
military position in Tibet.
23. Singapore, Philippines, the US & Vietnam jointly invade the southern coastal region of Guangzhou & Fujian along the entire southern underbelly of
China. Large numbers of PLA troops desert their positions & surrender unilaterally to the advancing allies.
24. US forces quickly control almost the entire Pearl River delta & capture Guangzhou, Fujian, Shenzen & Hong Kong meeting very little resistance from
the PLA. Meanwhile the Germans, British & Canadians invade Shanghai & Nanking here they are aided by shock troops from Poland, Spain, Italy & Turkey.
A fierce tank battle rages between PLA armoured divisions & the allied forces over control of the Yangtze River Delta & its adjoining hinterland.
25. The US & British air forces start a deadly air assault on Chinese formations along the entire Yangtze River Delta hinterland to assist the allied
forces there. At this crucial juncture some middle ranking PLA military commanders get in touch with allied headquarters and express their desire to
defect to the allied side.
26. The Japanese & Koreans launch a full frontal attack on beleaguered PLA positions in northern China & along the Yellow sea. The cities of Lushun,
Dalian & Harbin are captured by the Japanese – Korean troops after stiff resistance from Chinese forces.
27. The Final assault on Beijing is planned with the Japanese, Koreans & Americans proceeding from the south & east, with the Russians approaching
from the north.
..................................to be continued