An Exercise in Futuristic Scenario Building

Time line:

The year is 2015

1. Taiwan declares independence.

2. China declares war on Taiwan, attacks Taiwanese Capital (Taipei) with missiles and mobilizes it's troops along it's southern border to prepare for a Normandy style landing with a prelude to a naval invasion of Taiwan.

3. Taiwan meanwhile appeals for intervention to retain its territorial integrity from an imperialist, aggressive & militarily crazy China. The United States brings a resolution to the UN Security Council to condemn the aggressive Chinese behavior over Taiwan. China vetoes the resolution.

4. America summons its allies & friends in the region & worldwide to come to the defense of Taiwan. America mobilizes its vast pacific war machine. Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Japan, United Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Great Britain, Vietnam, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland, Romania, The Czech Republic, Turkey, Israel, Canada & Brazil join the formidable American troop mobilizations. America along with its allies launches the biggest naval protective operation after the second WW. The operation is code-named Liberation China.

5. Some notable American partners among them, Russia & India stay neutral & adopt a wait & watch strategy. Simultaneously, China is reassured of India & Russia’s professed neutrality for the time being. Other Islamic countries such as Pakistan, Iran & Saudi Arabia also stay out of the conflict, but lodge their protest in the UN against the allied operations in the Far -East.

6. China launches air strikes with Russian acquired Sukhoi –30s, Taiwan counter attacks with F-16s. The biggest air battle over the Taiwan Strait ensues. Meanwhile the US & its allies block the sea-lanes in the Malacca’s, the South China Sea & the busy Pacific sea-lanes, and station warships & aircraft carriers along the coast of southern & central China. This is a formidable naval blockade to choke Oil & other essential cargo from entering Chinese ports.

7. China is being choked economically, the Shanghai & Hong Kong stock exchanges plunge to their lowest ever levels. America freezes Chinese assets overseas, in order to break China’s economic & financial stability. China tries to break the allied naval blockade, but after being challenged to a battle declines any engagement with US & allies naval warships.

8. China tries to break through the naval blockade again, but on being vigorously challenged for a fight the Chinese navy backtracks. The allied navies mount an entire semi-circle naval siege of the north & south china seas with tremendous success from the allied war-angle.

9. The air battle over the Taiwan Strait intensifies, resulting in heavy loss of aircraft for the PLAAF. Taiwan Air force quickly regains air superiority over China in a matter of a week of dog -fighting.

10. Meanwhile China attempts to break the naval blockade once again at two points, near the Tonkin Gulf & the other near the Yellow Sea with very limited success. The Japanese & Korean Navies launch a combined attack in the Yellow Sea region to fend of Chinese naval maneuvers, while the combined American, Vietnamese, Philippine & Singaporean naval onslaught in the Tonkin Gulf seriously impairs Chinese naval capabilities in the South China Sea.




11. The Americans simultaneously launch a concerted counterattack by deploying B-2 bombers to pre-empt Chinese troop movements to the central coast bordering the Shanghai area. These attack PLA troop formations in central & north china to prevent the Chinese from consolidating their strength in China’s important industrial hinterland, and preventing them from attacking Japanese & Korean forces in the Yellow Sea region. The onslaught by B-2 bombers results in heavy Chinese casualties.

12. The Chinese Central Military Command decides to pull away PLA divisions from Tibet, Nei Mongol, Dongbei & Xinxiang to reinforce their beleaguered counterparts in China Proper who are facing a combined onslaught by a formidable allied war machine. This Chinese decision is taken in view of the professed neutrality of India & Russia.

13. China decides to fire nuclear tipped IRBMs on key targets in Japan & Korea to break the naval impasse in the Yellow sea. This Chinese move backfires as the NMD Shield intercepts the missiles over Japan & Korea & renders the attack ineffective. The allies respond by counterattacking Chinese military formations with TNW ( Tactical Nuclear Weapons or mini-nukes ) . China sustains very heavy losses of troops. ( approx half a million PLA troops are reported dead in this lethal attack )

14. Russia has meanwhile put its troops near the Mongolian & Manchurian fronts on the highest alert in attack formations to prevent any spillover from the fighting inside Chinese territory. Secret parleys between the Japanese, Koreans & Russians results in Russia agreeing to invade from the north with the Japanese & Koreans attacking from the Yellow Sea & Yalu river region.

15. India meanwhile sensing the depletion of Chinese troop deployment-levels in Tibet launches a major invasion from Ladakh & the NEFA region, citing as reason the liberation of Chinese –held Indian territory in Askai Chin. Indian transport planes airlift troops, artillery guns & tanks across the Himalayan ranges into the Tibetan plateau. They capture major mountain passes, bridges, highways & airfields in a lighting quick military blitzkrieg across south-western Tibet and manage in quickly consolidating their position of strength in Central Tibet & Amdo. They get massive air support from USAAF fighters stationed in Central Asia. Together the USAAF & IAF fighter jets inflict heavy losses on PLA units retreating from Tibet. The Indian Army gradually inches towards the Yunnan province despite stiff resistance from PLA units stationed there.

16. Pakistan, Iran & Saudi Arabia form an Islamic bloc and try again to table a resolution in the UN along with components from the Arab League to oppose any allied operations in East Asia. This is a last ditch attempt to conjure up world opinion to prevent the break up of China. But America warns this rogue Muslim grouping of serious consequences if they continue to put roadblocks for the allies.

17. On the far north-western frontier of China bordering Central Asia, America along with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan & Russia amasses troops & air capabilities in strike formations along the Tien Shan ranges, a major air assault is launched against the remaining PLA units in Xinxiang. The allies advance into Taklimakan & onwards into the Gobi & chase PLA units to the last man. East Turkestan is proclaimed a free republic.

18. Tibetan & Uighur Nationalists are installed in the autonomous regions ( Tibet & East Turkestan ). Race Riots ensue where Han Chinese are systematically targeted & massacred and their property looted & burned down by the native Tibetans & Uighurs. The nationalists give an ultimatum to the entire Han Chinese population to move out of these regions or face the music. There is a massive exodus of Han Chinese from both these regions in order to escape retaliation. The Buddhist Republic of Tibet is proclaimed jointly by India & the United States. The Dalai Lama returns to his homeland from exile in India.


19. In China the economic situation turns grave & the internal security apparatus collapses. There is utter lawlessness in the major cities of Southern China. Democracy dissidents have started targeting communist party members. Inflation is running at an all time high of 1200%. The Chinese currency has lost most of its value and is trading at 50,000 renminbi to a dollar. There is a virtual blackout in the industrial heartland of Guangdong and adjoining regions as well as acute fuel & food shortages all across south & central China due to the allied naval blockade.

20. Vietnam & Thailand launch a major invasion (comprising largely of their respective mountain divisions) of China from the mountainous southeast adjoining their territory. The USAAF gives them air support and the Indian army, which in the meantime has reached Kunming in Yunnan, aids these troops. The PLA divisions flee towards China proper after suffering major reversals. Taiwanese & US navies meanwhile battle hard with the Chinese navy to capture the Island of Hainan. Finally, the US wrests Hainan Island from Chinese control after a brief naval engagement along the Tonkin Gulf. An independent protectorate of Hainan is declared under Taiwanese control.

21. Combined Russian & Mongolian forces fight along side to capture Inner Mongolia from Chinese occupation. Finally having been caught between Korean & Japanese forces along the yellow sea & Russian & Mongolian forces in the North the PLA units abandon their positions and fall back leaving Russia in control of large territories in Manchuria & Inner Mongolia.

22. Remaining PLA troops surrender enmasse in Inner Mongolia & Manchuria. Reports emerge of PLA surrenders in Tibet & Yunnan as India consolidates its military position in Tibet.

23. Singapore, Philippines, the US & Vietnam jointly invade the southern coastal region of Guangzhou & Fujian along the entire southern underbelly of China. Large numbers of PLA troops desert their positions & surrender unilaterally to the advancing allies.

24. US forces quickly control almost the entire Pearl River delta & capture Guangzhou, Fujian, Shenzen & Hong Kong meeting very little resistance from the PLA. Meanwhile the Germans, British & Canadians invade Shanghai & Nanking here they are aided by shock troops from Poland, Spain, Italy & Turkey. A fierce tank battle rages between PLA armoured divisions & the allied forces over control of the Yangtze River Delta & its adjoining hinterland.

25. The US & British air forces start a deadly air assault on Chinese formations along the entire Yangtze River Delta hinterland to assist the allied forces there. At this crucial juncture some middle ranking PLA military commanders get in touch with allied headquarters and express their desire to defect to the allied side.

26. The Japanese & Koreans launch a full frontal attack on beleaguered PLA positions in northern China & along the Yellow sea. The cities of Lushun, Dalian & Harbin are captured by the Japanese – Korean troops after stiff resistance from Chinese forces.

27. The Final assault on Beijing is planned with the Japanese, Koreans & Americans proceeding from the south & east, with the Russians approaching from the north.



..................................to be continued

wow, i would said this is very well done, but i would add like maybe a victory or two in a battle for the chinese cause the allies can't win every single battle

The US will not risk a war with China just because of Taiwan. Also,China will not attack Taipei with missles en masse. Their goal is to unite Taiwan and China,not obliterate Taiwan. Also,with at least 100 ICBMs,and more by 2015,expect the US to be hit hard. Don't expect all the nations to be involved in the attack on China,simply because they aren't like Nazi Germany. Most likely,they will just be watching the war or providing aid.

And oh,the US is against Taiwanese independence and has pledged itself neutral if war did happen.

Rajput I just want to say that alot of thought has gone into your post unlike some.
You even gave some thought to the fact that America has many allies and friends that even as we speake are fighting with GIs even before a war with China.
The Reds better watch out with Anzacs in the fight they dont stand a chance.
Rajput are you an American?

Reasons why this will not happen


1. MAD- mutally assured destruction - China nukes USA,USA nukes China,process continues.

2. USA will not go to war with China over Taiwan. USA has stated its support of China on this matter.

3. Chinese defenses will ensure that the US will never land on mainland China no matter what they do.WWII style landing crafts will not work

4. China will also choke the American economy. Take a look at your house, at least 50% of those things are made in China.

5. The US will have little support while attacking China. Countries like Singapore,Indonesia,The Philipines,Vietnam and Thailand will not attack China,Neither will India or any other country except Russia,Simply because a few IRBMs there will destroy them. As for Russia,it has no reason to attack China.

6. Nuclear arms - China nukes South Korea and Japan. What makes you think the missle defense will be so effective? It just recently failed a test. And even if it was that good,at least half will hit,and thats enough to level both cities.

7. US Allies - The US has few allies that will actually be willing to risk this much. Take a look of how many "allies" helped with Iraq or Afghanistan. Now think of something like that only 100 times more dangerous and with the risk of your country getting destroyed.



Good try anyway....I can just imagine people in Thailand invading China

Originally posted by W4rl0rD
6. Nuclear arms - China nukes South Korea and Japan. What makes you think the missle defense will be so effective? It just recently failed a test.

Redundancy. Even if one fails, the other 10 per ICBM/IRBM will work. Remember, china has what, 350 warheads? How many does America and Russia have? Enough to make the term MAD with China laughable. We can probably stop 90% of those warheads from reaching their targets at this time, and who knows how many in 10 years. China's small nuclear arsenal is as scary to the US as Taiwan's military is scary to China; laughable.

Make no mistake. As soon as our shield is fully operational, Japan will build up a shield of their own; we will have the protection needed to back them up on it. I think Jap. missile defense tech. will be so good they will have few worries.

By 2015,I can bet that China will have 500 nukes capable of hitting the US. And what? The missle defense system just failed a test recently,and thats with the fact that the missles can't manouvre. In reality,they are only good for deflecting not so advanced missles from NK/Iran.

Wodan,even with those 225 Airbuses,you are not gonna fly them all to China and hope the air defense does not notice those HUGE planes or is taking their lunch break

You believe the US/EU can just land on China like D-Day? Wake up to reality. Look at the coastal defense of China, the strongest in the world. And,even with 10 nukes,thats at least 2 million people dead and many more to be affected by the radiation later. So, unless you want your children to be born without legs/arms,its best not to have any war at all.

Also,its the aftermath thats more deadly than the initial explosion. It causes the nuclear winter,not the first explosion. With all that nuclear fallout, the US will become a barren wasteland,or any other country that is hit by 10 nukes,probably even less than that.

[edit on 11/2/05 by W4rl0rD]

Originally posted by W4rl0rD
By 2015,I can bet that China will have 500 nukes capable of hitting the US. And what? The missle defense system just failed a test recently,and thats with the fact that the missles can't manouvre. In reality,they are only good for deflecting not so advanced missles from NK/Iran.

Wodan,even with those 225 Airbuses,you are not gonna fly them all to China and hope the air defense does not notice those HUGE planes or is taking their lunch break

And you lamer think, that Eurofighter, Tornado, Taifun-fighting-drone etc. wouldnt be able to destroy chinas hole airdefence before of the invasion??? LOOOL
MUAHAHA

You believe the US/EU can just land on China like D-Day? Wake up to reality. Look at the coastal defense of China, the strongest in the world. And,even with 10 nukes,thats at least 2 million people dead and many more to be affected by the radiation later. So, unless you want your children to be born without legs/arms,its best not to have any war at all.

Also,its the aftermath thats more deadly than the initial explosion. It causes the nuclear winter,not the first explosion. With all that nuclear fallout, the US will become a barren wasteland,or any other country that is hit by 10 nukes,probably even less than that.

[edit on 11/2/05 by W4rl0rD]

LOL

Chine would never use nukes, and if it does, it would get destroyed totally, 1.3 billion deaths

Have to say your not out of imagination and seems you have read some geography as well. Very entertaining, even thou i doubt US would wage war cause of Taiwan, not many country even regonize Taiwan as country, so it doesnt have power on UN even. At year 2015 unless theres new energy sources available, i would guess that can cause war as in WWII, it caused some countrys to join war. But then again China wouldnt just go for Taiwan, more likely Russia. In 10 years many things can happen as now past 10 years been.

I wonder if the US has already developed an adequate defense against the large supplies of the 3M82 Moskit sea-skimming missiles that china has been getting from Russia. Until recently the only defense was to "stay out of their range."

If that still holds then the talk of the US & its allies blocking sea-lanes and choking the Chinese economy seems highly unrealistic.

Originally posted by Wodan
And you lamer think, that Eurofighter, Tornado, Taifun-fighting-drone etc. wouldnt be able to destroy chinas hole airdefence before of the invasion??? LOOOL
MUAHAHA

And you think the Air defenses (S-300s and maybe S-400s) wouldn't shoot that all down? China has the world's strongest defense system now.

LOL

Chine would never use nukes, and if it does, it would get destroyed totally, 1.3 billion deaths

If China is at the edge of losing its soverignity,it will definetly use nukes, and even the US,or any other nation will use nukes.

Nice scenario. However it would be a logistcial nightmare for the US to invade China on several fronts.
Also you would assume the Chinese would be willing to use nikes after a ground invasion has begun. They would definately deploy tactical nukes on the battlefield against the massed allied formations you describe. Especially after having 500 00 troops vaporised with no meaningful respons.

Then there is the problem of looking after and controlling 1billion+ people.

But I liked the scenario