Evacuate Seoul and Tokyo as part of War Games

To avoid nuclear war is our aim.

By keeping Seoul, and to a much lesser extent, Tokyo, hostage to a massive conventional weapons attack, North Korea has had a human shield to continue work on missiles and nuclear weapons. This has effectively made a military solution to the problem too costly to consider. If Seoul and Tokyo were evacuated, with the people dispersed to the country side, the casualties from a North Korean attack would be greatly reduced. While still more costly in lives than anyone would want, a significant reduction in lives lost would be a very good thing. By pursuing a periodic evacuation during war games, one more pressure point could be applied to try to encourage a diplomatic solution. Such evacuations would make a military solution more credible, which could help in the desired goal for a negotiated, verifiable, denuclearization. It would show resolve of the people to oppose their hostage status while they also show their opposition to the growing nuclear threat.

Such evacuations would themselves be costly. But it pales in comparison to nuclear war.

a reply to: delbertlarson

where are you going to " evacuate " them to ??????????????

Theres no way to evacuate millions of people in that short of time .
Second theres no place to evacuate that many people to .

a reply to: VengefulGhost

Yup. About 10 million people live in Seoul itself with a total of around 25 million in the whole Seoul Capital Area. It simply is not feasible to evacuate that many people.

a reply to: delbertlarson

Seoul's metropolitan area has more than 25 million people, meaning that roughly half of South Korea's entire population lives there. And their major chaebols like Samsung, Hyundai, and LG are headquartered in Seoul. How are they supposed to evacuate that many people, much less the corporate offices, without North Korea getting wind of it?

Also, South Korea is only 38,691 square miles in size. By comparison, there are 37 US states that are larger than that (HERE). However, South Korea has more than 51 million people, which is around 12 million more people than our most populous state, California (HERE). In other words, there's nowhere for them to go.

Not to mention, the Korean people consider themselves as one people. Their families are split across the borders, they share the same language, and they share the same history. In 2000, then-South Korean President Kim Dae-jung was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for the implementation of his "Sunshine Policy", which was a series of cooperative policies with North Korea. These included things like business partnerships, temporary reunions of families split by the border, etc.

In other words, I don't think the citizens in either Korea really want the annihilation of the other. They even had strong cooperation between the 1970s and 1990s, with their mutually stated goals being the reunion of the Koreas. I have no clue why people are so quick to ignore reconciliation in favor of new fantasies of war.

North Korea could reasonably assume that such an extraordinary act of relocation would be an enabling preparation for a strike on them and attack first. They are paranoid but not stupid.

a reply to: delbertlarson


The Seoul metropolitan area is roughly 200 square miles from my estimate looking at the map. South Korea's area is 38,000 square miles, 190 times larger. Admittedly, some of the terrain may not be useable, but much of the hostage situation results from the artillery being aimed at Seoul. So it might be possible to not only disperse the population, but get it out of the range of a lot of what presently threatens it. We evacuate in the face of hurricanes all the time. In the case of Seoul, you don't need to do it quickly either, it could be orderly. It does of course take the will to do so.

a reply to: delbertlarson

"Yeah, you.. just go over there in that field, and wait by the second row of rice over there, right there, okay. NEXT"

No.

There is neither the NECESSARY technological infrastructure (sanitary, electricity, housing) nor the possibility to feed the people, and last but really not least there would be a TREMENDOUS economical breakdown from de-populating the centers of commerce, trade and production.

a reply to: delbertlarson

Not costly - impossible.

originally posted by: enlightenedservant
a reply to: delbertlarsonI don't think the citizens in either Korea really want the annihilation of the other. They even had strong cooperation between the 1970s and 1990s, with their mutually stated goals being the reunion of the Koreas. I have no clue why people are so quick to ignore reconciliation in favor of new fantasies of war.

War in Korea isn't a fantasy, but a current reality. It has been since 25 June, 1950 there is currently an armistice which is technically little more than a dressed-up cease-fire.

There is a deranged, fat little piggy who starves his people who is threatening the use of thermonuclear weapons against other countries during this cease fire.

The fantasy is reconciliation - unless said deranged, fat piggy is removed.

Such a drill sounds like the perfect opportunity for nk ground forces to move in and loot.

a reply to: delbertlarson

South has its capital right in the middle of North's shooting range. That is bad.

The only way forward is to invest billions for adequate GBAD and C-RAM defense systems, and secure the capital with similar effectiveness as Israel with its shield - but for even smaller caliber projectiles.

NK has around 5000 artiller pieces, including rocket launchers, so the mission is not at all impossible, while it is demanding in material terms.

a reply to: delbertlarson

Straight from the hip !

Knee jerk reactions ...

Are not what we as humanity need right now.
Admittedly , when dealing with a nation of spoon fed American hate food from birth ... I am not sure dialogue would garner the desired audience.

I reckon the first wave should be delivered by B2 squadrons !

Dropping truth CD's to all unaware North Koreans.

Not propaganda .. just truths that even Chinese get to live !

Let it sink in then re - evaluate.

My work here is done ...

Maybe they could use the secret tunnels dug by the mole men..

a reply to: delbertlarson

If Seoul and Tokyo were evacuated, with the people dispersed to the country side, the casualties from a North Korean attack would be greatly reduced.

No it wouldn't. Besides that they can't evacuate a whole city in time, (especially Tokyo, the largest city on earth), the effects of radiation, heat, blast and fallout are devastating to exposed humans, like during rush hour, or during evacuation.

Besides, where they gonna go? We're talking tens of millions of displaced people. During Fukushima the wind changed and the fallout might have been heading towards Tokyo, the official decision not to evacuate was made, warnings to stay inside were all the city got. The cost of such a undertaking was considered to hi. I mean cost money, not lives.

a reply to: GusMcDangerthing

You mention the 1950s but conveniently ignore what happened afterwards all the way until 2002. Yeah, that seems credible...

And while we're denying the details there, let's keep pretending that the UN sanctions from 2006 inwards aren't contributing towards North Korea's poverty. They can't even export precious metals, rare earth, coal or iron; they've been almost completely shut out of the international financial system; and their cargo ca be seized anywhere in the world if it's suspected of related to military R&D. But nah, any starvation there is strictly because of their leader. (facepalm)

a reply to: enlightenedservant

I mention the 1950s because THAT IS WHEN THE KOREAN WAR BEGAN AND IT IS NOT OVER. See that bold text? That's me virtually shaking you by the collar because you need to get that through your skull.

The was never an official end to the war, there was merely a cease fire.

If you think the UN lifting sanctions on North Korea would help the average citizen there then you're even less informed than your initial ignorance betrays.

Good test film about the effects of Hi yield Hydrogen devices on atolls in the pacific.

Kinda dry, here is a preview though.
The first documentary
And the follow on documentary about effects...

Evacuate 20+ millions of people in Seoul? Logistics would cost fortune and such day free from work would cost the budget additional fortune.

a reply to: deckdel
Yes, I have lauded this strategy for sometime. We can do it man! With those things all over the metro area, they can do their best for a couple of hours while the airforce and Navy work on whittling down those same pieces of artillery.

It will cost us a lot of air assets, but in the end South Korea, Japan and the USA will come out victorious. In the interim, I think it is time we begin shooting down any missiles that leave the territorial waters on the East side of NK. This will force them to launch towards the West or into China if they want to test their missiles. Or they can tempt fate and make a strike which will end the regime. Thats their choice though.