Liberation CHINA

An Exercise in Futuristic Scenario Building

Time line:

The year is 2015

1. Taiwan declares independence.

2. China declares war on Taiwan, attacks Taiwanese Capital (Taipei) with missiles and mobilizes it's troops along it's southern border to prepare for a Normandy style landing with a prelude to a naval invasion of Taiwan.

3. Taiwan meanwhile appeals for intervention to retain its territorial integrity from an imperialist, aggressive & militarily crazy China. The United States brings a resolution to the UN Security Council to condemn the aggressive Chinese behavior over Taiwan. China vetoes the resolution.

4. America summons its allies & friends in the region & worldwide to come to the defense of Taiwan. America mobilizes its vast pacific war machine. Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Japan, United Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Great Britain, Vietnam, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland, Romania, The Czech Republic, Turkey, Israel, Canada & Brazil join the formidable American troop mobilizations. America along with its allies launches the biggest naval protective operation after the second WW. The operation is code-named Liberation China.

5. Some notable American partners among them, Russia & India stay neutral & adopt a wait & watch strategy. Simultaneously, China is reassured of India & Russia’s professed neutrality for the time being. Other Islamic countries such as Pakistan, Iran & Saudi Arabia also stay out of the conflict, but lodge their protest in the UN against the allied operations in the Far -East.

6. China launches air strikes with Russian acquired Sukhoi –30s, Taiwan counter attacks with F-16s. The biggest air battle over the Taiwan Strait ensues. Meanwhile the US & its allies block the sea-lanes in the Malacca’s, the South China Sea & the busy Pacific sea-lanes, and station warships & aircraft carriers along the coast of southern & central China. This is a formidable naval blockade to choke Oil & other essential cargo from entering Chinese ports.

7. China is being choked economically, the Shanghai & Hong Kong stock exchanges plunge to their lowest ever levels. America freezes Chinese assets overseas, in order to break China’s economic & financial stability. China tries to break the allied naval blockade, but after being challenged to a battle declines any engagement with US & allies naval warships.

8. China tries to break through the naval blockade again, but on being vigorously challenged for a fight the Chinese navy backtracks. The allied navies mount an entire semi-circle naval siege of the north & south china seas with tremendous success from the allied war-angle.

9. The air battle over the Taiwan Strait intensifies, resulting in heavy loss of aircraft for the PLAAF. Taiwan Air force quickly regains air superiority over China in a matter of a week of dog -fighting.

10. Meanwhile China attempts to break the naval blockade once again at two points, near the Tonkin Gulf & the other near the Yellow Sea with very limited success. The Japanese & Korean Navies launch a combined attack in the Yellow Sea region to fend of Chinese naval maneuvers, while the combined American, Vietnamese, Philippine & Singaporean naval onslaught in the Tonkin Gulf seriously impairs Chinese naval capabilities in the South China Sea.




11. The Americans simultaneously launch a concerted counterattack by deploying B-2 bombers to pre-empt Chinese troop movements to the central coast bordering the Shanghai area. These attack PLA troop formations in central & north china to prevent the Chinese from consolidating their strength in China’s important industrial hinterland, and preventing them from attacking Japanese & Korean forces in the Yellow Sea region. The onslaught by B-2 bombers results in heavy Chinese casualties.

12. The Chinese Central Military Command decides to pull away PLA divisions from Tibet, Nei Mongol, Dongbei & Xinxiang to reinforce their beleaguered counterparts in China Proper who are facing a combined onslaught by a formidable allied war machine. This Chinese decision is taken in view of the professed neutrality of India & Russia.

13. China decides to fire nuclear tipped IRBMs on key targets in Japan & Korea to break the naval impasse in the Yellow sea. This Chinese move backfires as the NMD Shield intercepts the missiles over Japan & Korea & renders the attack ineffective. The allies respond by counterattacking Chinese military formations with TNW ( Tactical Nuclear Weapons or mini-nukes ) . China sustains very heavy losses of troops. ( approx half a million PLA troops are reported dead in this lethal attack )

14. Russia has meanwhile put its troops near the Mongolian & Manchurian fronts on the highest alert in attack formations to prevent any spillover from the fighting inside Chinese territory. Secret parleys between the Japanese, Koreans & Russians results in Russia agreeing to invade from the north with the Japanese & Koreans attacking from the Yellow Sea & Yalu river region.

15. India meanwhile sensing the depletion of Chinese troop deployment-levels in Tibet launches a major invasion from Ladakh & the NEFA region, citing as reason the liberation of Chinese –held Indian territory in Askai Chin. Indian transport planes airlift troops, artillery guns & tanks across the Himalayan ranges into the Tibetan plateau. They capture major mountain passes, bridges, highways & airfields in a lighting quick military blitzkrieg across south-western Tibet and manage in quickly consolidating their position of strength in Central Tibet & Amdo. They get massive air support from USAAF fighters stationed in Central Asia. Together the USAAF & IAF fighter jets inflict heavy losses on PLA units retreating from Tibet. The Indian Army gradually inches towards the Yunnan province despite stiff resistance from PLA units stationed there.

16. Pakistan, Iran & Saudi Arabia form an Islamic bloc and try again to table a resolution in the UN along with components from the Arab League to oppose any allied operations in East Asia. This is a last ditch attempt to conjure up world opinion to prevent the break up of China. But America warns this rogue Muslim grouping of serious consequences if they continue to put roadblocks for the allies.

17. On the far north-western frontier of China bordering Central Asia, America along with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan & Russia amasses troops & air capabilities in strike formations along the Tien Shan ranges, a major air assault is launched against the remaining PLA units in Xinxiang. The allies advance into Taklimakan & onwards into the Gobi & chase PLA units to the last man. East Turkestan is proclaimed a free republic.

18. Tibetan & Uighur Nationalists are installed in the autonomous regions ( Tibet & East Turkestan ). Race Riots ensue where Han Chinese are systematically targeted & massacred and their property looted & burned down by the native Tibetans & Uighurs. The nationalists give an ultimatum to the entire Han Chinese population to move out of these regions or face the music. There is a massive exodus of Han Chinese from both these regions in order to escape retaliation. The Buddhist Republic of Tibet is proclaimed jointly by India & the United States. The Dalai Lama returns to his homeland from exile in India.


19. In China the economic situation turns grave & the internal security apparatus collapses. There is utter lawlessness in the major cities of Southern China. Democracy dissidents have started targeting communist party members. Inflation is running at an all time high of 1200%. The Chinese currency has lost most of its value and is trading at 50,000 renminbi to a dollar. There is a virtual blackout in the industrial heartland of Guangdong and adjoining regions as well as acute fuel & food shortages all across south & central China due to the allied naval blockade.

20. Vietnam & Thailand launch a major invasion (comprising largely of their respective mountain divisions) of China from the mountainous southeast adjoining their territory. The USAAF gives them air support and the Indian army, which in the meantime has reached Kunming in Yunnan, aids these troops. The PLA divisions flee towards China proper after suffering major reversals. Taiwanese & US navies meanwhile battle hard with the Chinese navy to capture the Island of Hainan. Finally, the US wrests Hainan Island from Chinese control after a brief naval engagement along the Tonkin Gulf. An independent protectorate of Hainan is declared under Taiwanese control.

21. Combined Russian & Mongolian forces fight along side to capture Inner Mongolia from Chinese occupation. Finally having been caught between Korean & Japanese forces along the yellow sea & Russian & Mongolian forces in the North the PLA units abandon their positions and fall back leaving Russia in control of large territories in Manchuria & Inner Mongolia.

22. Remaining PLA troops surrender enmasse in Inner Mongolia & Manchuria. Reports emerge of PLA surrenders in Tibet & Yunnan as India consolidates its military position in Tibet.

23. Singapore, Philippines, the US & Vietnam jointly invade the southern coastal region of Guangzhou & Fujian along the entire southern underbelly of China. Large numbers of PLA troops desert their positions & surrender unilaterally to the advancing allies.

24. US forces quickly control almost the entire Pearl River delta & capture Guangzhou, Fujian, Shenzen & Hong Kong meeting very little resistance from the PLA. Meanwhile the Germans, British & Canadians invade Shanghai & Nanking here they are aided by shock troops from Poland, Spain, Italy & Turkey. A fierce tank battle rages between PLA armoured divisions & the allied forces over control of the Yangtze River Delta & its adjoining hinterland.

25. The US & British air forces start a deadly air assault on Chinese formations along the entire Yangtze River Delta hinterland to assist the allied forces there. At this crucial juncture some middle ranking PLA military commanders get in touch with allied headquarters and express their desire to defect to the allied side.

26. The Japanese & Koreans launch a full frontal attack on beleaguered PLA positions in northern China & along the Yellow sea. The cities of Lushun, Dalian & Harbin are captured by the Japanese – Korean troops after stiff resistance from Chinese forces.

27. The Final assault on Beijing is planned with the Japanese, Koreans & Americans proceeding from the south & east, with the Russians approaching from the north.



..................................to be continued

I bet uve been up all night thinkin that one up.
You a military tactics specialist?
If not then you bloody well should be

really neat ideas, but I wouldn't want more wars!

Nice imagination... shouldn't this be in the Predictions forum ?

Positives
Well thought out with only a couple of notable exceptions. Good geography lesson! Good sense of each individual force's strengths and probably tactics, with only one exception. Well written, and though long, quite concise.

Negatives
China owns a good portion of US debts and while they import a great deal of energy, they also export a huge quantity of goods - this being said China could very well collapse the American economy, not the other way around. Russia would not sit by and watch while America took over their stategic partner, nor would India - they might engage in actual combat, more probably supply line harrasment and material sabotage, combined with economic warfare and inteligence. The American war machine runs on oil, huge quantities of it, SE Asia is required for refueling and dry dock repairs - except SE Asia is rapidly falling from Americas circle of influence. The recent tsunami underscored the tense relationship between Indonesia and America, so did the Bali bomb and the Jakarta embassy debacle. The Jakarta Post ran a story that was quietly ignored by western media outlets regarding the use of a mirco nuclear device against the country. Indonesian officials are very conscious of America's imperialist pedigree, and our increased expansion as of late has them a bit steamed. Thailand and the Philipines are similarly very unstable at the moment, and their loyalty should not be counted on by any foreign invader. I also think you forgot a country, N. Korea. They would limit the ability of the S. Korean and Japanese navys to intervene without risking a two front war, one behind, one ahead. Japan is a geographically small series of islands, and as such is more vulnerable to rocket, missle, and artillery attacks by the Chinese. The Chinese don't have the cannon necessary to level Japan, but I'd guess it would take less than three months to get the forces in place to do so.

Don't let the size of the last paragraph get you down, I really enjoyed reading your work. Even if it doesn't happen, you can always write fiction!

28. In a last-ditch effort to save face, retain their power in China, and to get one back at America, the CCP launches all of it's remaining nuclear weapons at the West coast of the United States. The ineffectual and unproven NMD/THAAD system fails to stop the majority of the missiles. All major U.S. West coast cities are levelled with massive loss of life and property. At the same time, the US retaliates with massive nuclear strikes along the East coast of China.

29. The peoples of China and the United States, watching their children rot before their eyes from radiation sickness and disgusted by the behaviour of their leaders, rise up against their respective governments and take over, instituting new governments that are founded on the principles of peace and sharing instead of war and nationalistic economic gain.

30. You wake up and discover it was all a good dream. That would never happen.

Originally posted by wecomeinpeace
30. You wake up and discover it was all a good dream. That would never happen.

Lmao.






Reasons why this will not happen


1. MAD- mutally assured destruction - China nukes USA,USA nukes China,process continues.

2. USA will not go to war with China over Taiwan. USA has stated its support of China on this matter.

3. Chinese defenses will ensure that the US will never land on mainland China no matter what they do.WWII style landing crafts will not work

4. China will also choke the American economy. Take a look at your house, at least 50% of those things are made in China.

5. The US will have little support while attacking China. Countries like Singapore,Indonesia,The Philipines,Vietnam and Thailand will not attack China,Neither will India or any other country except Russia,Simply because a few IRBMs there will destroy them. As for Russia,it has no reason to attack China.

6. Nuclear arms - China nukes South Korea and Japan. What makes you think the missle defense will be so effective? It just recently failed a test. And even if it was that good,at least half will hit,and thats enough to level both cities.

7. US Allies - The US has few allies that will actually be willing to risk this much. Take a look of how many "allies" helped with Iraq or Afghanistan. Now think of something like that only 100 times more dangerous and with the risk of your country getting destroyed.



Good try anyway....I can just imagine people in Thailand invading China

comeon guys, give it up for rajput. gr8 post m8. u deserve something special for this, ats guys listening? lookin forward eagerly for ur nr next post
Vande mataram

Great fictional account, but needs to be updated with the current X factor of N. Korea's nukes and the turn over of power by Kim Jong Il to one of his three sons that will be coming soon. Also, what if the UN is not around or the US has pulled out in 2015? Just somethings to think about.

China pushes OPEC to the Limit
What is going on with the world? Russia is crap, the "lesser communist" nation of China which grew up as the little brother of Russia is thriving and now has OPEC as its bitch. The US is mean to OPEC and gets nothing done and China leaves them alone, demands a lot and gets what they want....maybe a new plan for the US?

i will one day work out why China is now hot news on ATS i really dont understand, China is a peaceful nation. They will make a great superpower

every nation acts peaceful inbetween wars

china isnt all that great anyhow
they still kill or imprison dissenters

i even read a story where they banned google because it led to 'inappropriot ' subjects like DEMOCRACY and FREE SPEECH and HUMAN RIGHTS

ya that stuff is bad words in china

you say 'i want freedom' and they give you freedom
freedom from life...
freedom to explore the spiritual realm...

ya lets protect china they dont hurt anyone - sarcasm
*ya right*

china has been in more wars than any other nation in history
anyways

read a history book

A nation that represents communism, capitalism, and major human rights violations. China is the Phoenix of the USSR and will always be a threat to the US. Yes they are not as imperialistic as Russia but China is not that peaceful. Tianammen Square anyone? I know that i was too young to remember that happening but it was not that long ago. I find it funny how Americans remember Kent State better than the Chinese Military running over a unarmed man. China at this moment is an ally to the US because of its stance on North Korea, but is an up and coming super power. This is why it must be closely watched. Any super power is dangerous but a rogue one that does not repspect human rights is more dangerous. Forced abortions, Military crack downs and outlawing religion show the dark side of this:

peaceful nation

Good and very Interesting read, whether I agree with it is another matter.

What is your opinion of China? I don't mean to be confrontational, just wanna keep the subject going. A lot of people give a yea or nay, lets see why rather than what.