China at risk of loosing its trade with U.S

Only problem is if China is kicked out,it would start inflation,I'm pretty sure this NK debacle is somehow tied into this,.the Chinese bought a lot of US real estate,but China also devalued it's currency,maybe things are finally comming to an end,this will be a world war over the US dollar,they want to be rulers of world now

a reply to: MrZeal



In my tech field which I have been in for over 30 years, the entire industry has seen a lot of job loss due to outsourcing the work to China. People who spent years training in a field and were in the middle of a decent career seeing their jobs EVAPORATE. And not just their jobs, but the industry they trained for. And the employers are happy because they get huge bonuses by eliminating our jobs and taking advantage of the cheap labor. Very slimy. We have lost countless American jobs due to employer GREED. I would love to see trade curtailed with China. To me, sending ONE job from America to China is tantamount to TREASON against your own countrymen.

a reply to: MrZeal

It might sound like I'm throwing darts here but this what I think might happen.

Many companies across the globe use third parties e.g China, Bangladesh, India etc to circumvent the minimum wage laws, so local wages could go down, and china could look elsewhere to sell their wares.

What does that mean? more American companies could essentially start their own Dickensian sweatshops which none of the plebs will like and the serfs could turn to the union friendly left come next election, or it could boost employment rates at the expense of longer hours and lesser pay but could boost local jobs. However China has thrice the population of the US, and that's why companies like Apple, Nike and so forth use these populous nations because productivity is up and costs are down.

But as I said i'm just throwing darts.

Outsourcing affects the price of cheap manufactured goods. IE. luxury goods. China hardly provides us with any non-luxury goods.

It doesn't have much affect on food, rent, or healthcare. (For healthcare the needles and equipment can get more expensive, but you're mostly paying for local skilled labor right now - doctors/nurses, and research)

Everyone is so afraid the economy would turn bad, but really it would mean you'd be living better. Wages for ordinary jobs go up, but rent stays right about where it is. That means more disposable income. But a TV set would cost more.

This means if you want to put money away for something, you can adjust your own budget by deciding to buy fewer TV's. (High disposable income, but also high cost of luxury goods.)

Right now, buying fewer TV sets has little impact on your budget, because most of it is going to rent and/or food and/or healthcare. What little disposable income you have left goes farther because Chinese made TV sets are so cheap, but ..... you only have a little bit of disposable income. (Low disposable income, but low cost of luxury goods)

Short version: China mostly makes luxury goods.

If we don't trade with them, you'll have more disposable (luxury) income, but luxury goods will cost more.

If we do trade with them, you'll have less disposable (luxury) income, but luxury goods will cost less.


But taking the option to forgo luxury, and thereby save money is how you move up in life.

originally posted by: Nexttimemaybe
It would be tough on China too but not so much, I'm sure they can find alternative buyers for less profit.

If they could then they would simply produce more and sell to them too. China's economy is facing huge problems.

originally posted by: openminded2011
a reply to: MrZeal



In my tech field which I have been in for over 30 years, the entire industry has seen a lot of job loss due to outsourcing the work to China. People who spent years training in a field and were in the middle of a decent career seeing their jobs EVAPORATE. And not just their jobs, but the industry they trained for. And the employers are happy because they get huge bonuses by eliminating our jobs and taking advantage of the cheap labor. Very slimy. We have lost countless American jobs due to employer GREED. I would love to see trade curtailed with China. To me, sending ONE job from America to China is tantamount to TREASON against your own countrymen.

I saw this happening across the world in every Canadian and USA city. In the mid 1990's, I was in Canada when Hong Kong was about to be handed back to China. The Kong Kong Chinese were desperate to get out of that situation and moved to Canada. There was then a problem - all those students who were in their twenties and had graduated from university were finding it difficult to find work. So affirmative action policies were put in place to give them priority to find work. That drove white Canadians to find employment in Texas and California.

Over in California it was a similar story. They all did post-doc degrees at places like Stanford and pulled the "underepresented ethnic demographic" as they did in Canada. Some employers would receive 300+ applications for one position and they were all Chinese.

I moved back to Scotland to do a PhD. Unbelievably, my PhD was sabotaged by a alumni student demanding that I hand over all my work over to him. That led to my PhD being dragged over 4 extra years without any funding, leaving me with an 8K credit card, debt and being ripped off by £20K in PPI fees.

Even in London, if you accept a job as a software engineer, you'll find yourself being required to train up your own team.

Wow lots of opinions. I disagree with most of them since I live in China and know it better than most.

China would struggle and possibly have an economic collapse if the USA implemented even a 10% tax on imported Chinese goods.

The whole thing no one really understands is that the factories in China are not run well and exist on razor thin profit margins. They are cash strapped because the owners take all profit out of the company upon making it. They also exist on 30-60 day cash flow and need payment on orders ASAP to stay liquid. A cut in orders due to a import tax would reduce orders significantly for these factories. They would close up within 60 to 120 days en masse. Large amounts of out of work men do not make for a stable China. The government here values social stability above all else. Workers in China who are cheated out of wages or lose their job in this way do riot, often.

There has already been a rise is labor riots over the last few years, the government puts them down very violently and then censors the media very quickly. Many factory owners who start having cash flow issues due to cut order volumes simply vanish with their profits and leave the workers high and dry. I read about it almost everyday on local social media before it is "harmonized" (censored) or people I know in the trade industry relate first hand stories to me.

Any import tax would hurt China, badly. An embargo would crush them with a countrywide economic collapse within 3 to 6 months. Their internal economy is not robust enough to absorb the amount of offset production volume that would result from a tax or embargo on goods flowing to the USA. The market is not that big.

Another thing, Chinese companies know the government is protecting them by taxing US goods coming into China. They know that the WTO protections should be expiring but the government is dragging it's feet. They are scared to death that Trump will force the government to remove the import tax and then the US Companies are on a level playing field with Chinese companies. They fear this very much and write about it everyday in forums and chatrooms which my wife reads.

a reply to: bloodymarvelous

China's also the largest producer of steel, accounting for roughly half of all global production of steel. And according to this article (HERE), China was also the leading producer in 38 different minerals as of 2012. The article's source only tracks roughly 70 minerals, so there may be even more.

In short, it's not just luxury goods that would be affected.