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Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017
Irma made landfall a couple of hours ago near Marco Island,
Florida with an estimated intensity of 100 kt. The eye just
passed over Naples, and assuming some decay over land, the current
intensity estimate is 95 kt. The interaction with the Florida
Peninsula along with strong southwesterly shear should cause
significant weakening, but Irma's large and powerful circulation
will likely maintain hurricane strength until Monday morning at the
earliest. Irma should be well inland and weaken to a remnant low in
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is above the model
Center fixes indicate a slightly west of due northward motion at
about 350/12 kt. Global models indicate that Irma is embedded
within a broader cyclonic mid-level gyre. The cyclone is expected
to be steered around the eastern side of this gyre over the next few
days. This will take the system inland over the southeastern
United states within a day or so. The track guidance remains in
good agreement, and the official forecast is close to the model
consensus with a slight lean toward the ECMWF solution. This is
very close to the previous NHC track.
originally posted by: ipsedixit
I haven't heard CBSN talk about the Key West storm surge at all. It doesn't seem to be something they are reporting. I guess all eyes are on the eye of the hurricane.
A huge airborne relief mission is en route to the Keys to help people impacted by the tragic devastation caused when the eye of Hurricane Irma blasted through the Lower Florida Keys at daybreak Sunday morning.
Monroe County Emergency Management Director Martin Senterfitt called the destruction caused by Irma, a massive Category 4 storm when it impacted the Keys, a “humanitarian crisis.”
Among the services coming to the Keys are “disaster mortuary teams,” he told the conference call.
United States Air Force special operations pilots are testing flights with C-130 cargo planes around the massive storm from Mississippi to the Keys in anticipation of the mission, which will include Air National Guard flights of more C-130s and helicopters following the fixed-wing flights.
“The help is on its way,” Senterfitt said during a conference call Sunday afternoon.
originally posted by: alphabetaone
a reply to: 8675309jenny
The stormsurge, not the eye. If the brunt of the stormsurge was distributed in the Everglades, then the rest of Irma would have had time to weaken while tracking over land. In this case, the more time this thing could have spent over land, the better off everyone is. Just not working out that way.
The upside is that the atmospheric conditions are becoming unfavorable, warm water or not so they're fighting against each other.
Larry Kahn, editor of the Keynoter and an editor for FlKeysNews.com, reported from one of Monroe County’s four “refuges of last resort” — a shelter set up at Marathon High School on Sombrero Road, that power was out, there was no running water, and everything outside was submerged by storm surge and rain.
“Everything is underwater, I mean everything,” Kahn said.
To make matters worse, one of the estimated 50 people staying at the shelter died overnight. Kahn said he was told by a Sheriff’s Office deputy that the man died of natural causes.