General Geopolitics

The fact that disagreements within the world's Elites have intensified in the last decade is almost obvious. In the US and the European Union, this can already be seen with the naked eye. Russia is very bad as well, on the edge of a new Civil War (which has already begun in Ukraine). China is not prosperous as one might think also.

I will try to describe what groups the world elite has broken up into, and what their interests are, and the mechanism of this disintegration.

The so called Elite is not a single coherent malevolent or benevolent group of people who can decide on the fate of society. Actually it is formed by the people with power (ownership, administrative power, military force and so on) and may be varied in the begining, in its core structure, but with the constant interaction, all groups become intertwined in a bigger structure(country elite, multicultural elite, religious elite). Then decisions for the masses are taken in the way of the round table(mostly). However, if there is no consensus to adopt the most important strategic decisions, then society under their influence is doomed meet a dire fate, like the one of the civil war. Because such scenarios are very much to be avoided, the elite had created several fundamentally important mechanisms for prevention.

The first is the system of harmonisation. In particular, there are many such institutions in the western world. For example, the notorious Bilderberg Club, both the Trilateral Commission and the IMF (purely economic issues are discussed) and many other clubs and organizations. Their general work is to manage conflicts between elites and keep the status quo for the masses. Like the oldest lady in the household...

Generally speaking, if the choice is about how to split a pie, the discussions are possible. But if the question is about who gets the last pie, as long as the others are starving, there may be serious problems. In fact, we're observing this today, and were about to meet the consequences of the EliteGate...

The second mechanism is propaganda. It broadcasts a shaped policy to society so that it does not have a strong hate for the elite. Indeed, the antielite (that is, that part of the society that holds power in the underworld) always exist, and it is important to keep it within the framework and not give it a serious chances to take over.

The third mechanic is a system of suppressing potentially elitist groups and movements. It works on everything from soft repression of dissent (in the United States, for example, potentially dissidents is not giving a career) to the hard. In virtually all countries of the world, there are systems of "political assassination", the task of which is to physically eliminate the most potentially harmful "objects".

Note that both the second and third mechanics operate only when there is consensus in the elite about the country's development path. If there is no consensus, the system is collapsing. We can currently observe this into the shadow government internal fights in the United States, as well as corrupt-oligarch battles in Russia. the same thing just with different perpetrators in different name. China, India and the whole East have the same clowns with different crowns. All fighting for the piece of the cheese. But the problem is not about the cheese, the problem is in this - that such fights are unpredictable and usually end in havoc.

The current processes that are taking place in the economy (which is quite objective) make the existence of present elite with the same size and composition absolutely impossible. Thus, conflicts appear. The real problems were still in the early 1990s, and the situation became irreversible in the last decade. There is a clear understanding amongst the elites that after the post-crisis there will be no more place for all the of them. Some will just not survive.

On this subject, but on a historical note, a new book has just come out purporting to expose the hidden geopolitical machinations behind the outbreak of the First World War. It sounds very interesting, and has got some good reviews on the fringe. But the mainstream are probably unwilling to touch it, for a variety of reasons. And I wouldn't know where to start with appraising its worth.

If anyone on ATS has a decent handle on WWI in general, I'd be interested to hear what they make of it.