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The U.S. has a staggering pilot shortage

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posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 11:57 AM
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The U.S. has a staggering pilot shortage


I never thought we'd have a pilot shortage problem.

But it seems that with retirements and all the new aircraft being purchased. The numbers say we need more pilots.

22K people retiring is a large number.



Passenger and cargo airlines around the world are expected to buy 41,000 new airliners between 2017 and 2036. And they will need 637,000 new pilots to fly them, according to a forecast from Boeing released this week. That staggering figure is matched only by how many will leave the profession in the next decade -- particularly in the U.S.
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Retirements at U.S. airlines will start to rise precipitously starting in 2021 as the current crop of pilots turns 65, the mandated age of retirement. More than 42% of active U.S. airline pilots at the biggest carriers will retire over the next 10 years, about 22,000, according to a recent report by Cowen & Company.




posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 12:10 PM
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a reply to: grey580

We don't. It's being used as a club to hold over various agencies and organizations. It's a lot more complicated than "they're buying 41,000 new planes over this time period".

Right now, there's a scope clause covering regional airlines. Pilots at the major carriers forced it into place to prevent regional pilots from being brought in to replace them, flying planes of a specific size. So regional carriers can only fly planes up to a specific MTOW, or passenger count. This is going to make things hard with planes like the MRJ, because they're bigger than allowed under the scope clause.

Now, what this does is let the regional carriers pay their pilots pennies, while working them incredibly hard, and the major carriers can basically freeze out the regional pilots that are trying to move up. So you have these regional pilots that paid a couple hundred thousand dollars to get their ATP, and never go higher than flying small turboprop aircraft between Jackson Hole and Cheyenne Wyoming.

This situation was brought on by the airlines and pilot unions.



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 12:14 PM
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Yep, the regional pilots sleep 5 hours in a office floor or chair.....then go to work....

Also the number of flights will double by 2025



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 12:16 PM
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a reply to: grey580

It's sad to see. Ever since I saw Star wars I wanted to be a fighter pilot, sadly my dream did not come true as will many others as UAV's are becoming less reliant on humans, but in a way it is a good thing as pilots are not expendable unlike drones. Why risk the life of a pilot when you can fly sorties from the safety of a bunker?



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 12:22 PM
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originally posted by: Thecakeisalie
a reply to: grey580

It's sad to see. Ever since I saw Star wars I wanted to be a fighter pilot, sadly my dream did not come true as will many others as UAV's are becoming less reliant on humans, but in a way it is a good thing as pilots are not expendable unlike drones. Why risk the life of a pilot when you can fly sorties from the safety of a bunker?



Most fighter pilots don't go on to be commercial airline pilots. The skill set if pretty different. Then again, most military pilots do not fly fighters.



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 12:24 PM
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Probably has something to do with the military being an unattractive career path these days combined with the fact that obtaining an education in aviation is an expensive endeavour that keeps many people outside of the door. Mostly I think people are unwilling to make the lifestyle changes that these organizations require.



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 12:42 PM
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a reply to: Zaphod58

God, I hope I get to fly the MRJ...



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 12:44 PM
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a reply to: grey580

Well.... I always wanted to be a pilot, maybe I should start saving up for school.

-Alee



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 12:51 PM
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a reply to: Barnalby

I'm sitting at Moses Lake right now. I'm hoping it will come by.



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 12:52 PM
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a reply to: grey580

I would have applied to the air force if they didnt only take young Matt Damons.

Imperfect older people just wouldnt fit into fighter pilot culture.

Thats way too many that could do the Job, but are turned down for dumb reasons.

Also, who cares? They want F22 pilots and drone gamers.

Why join up and give so much just to be told that you are ground crew?

Screw that, if youre going to be grounded get an M16 or a cool piece of equiptment. It must suck to be handed a wrench to only break your neck looking up.

I wouldnt.


edit on 7 28 2017 by tadaman because: (no reason given)



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 12:52 PM
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It's honestly off of most people's radar right now, at least the people who have a shot at it. The majors all require you to have at least a bachelor's, but most people who actually have that degree (and by "most" I mean "~99.9%" of them) are more interested in the "sexier" graduate-level career paths like medicine, law, business, finance, econ, or computer science. When you actually break it down, if you're willing to work as hard towards your ATP and employment at a major as you would towards your JD, MD, or MBA, going the civilian pilot route has the potential to pay out like medical school for a financial investment that's closer to getting a post-bac BSN.


originally posted by: TacSite18

Most fighter pilots don't go on to be commercial airline pilots. The skill set if pretty different. Then again, most military pilots do not fly fighters.


This. These days, the fighter guys are also typically far enough up the ladder by the time the USAF/USN is willing to let them go that most everyone who has the opportunity to ends up finishing their careers in the service since it makes far more sense than starting at square one in the airlines completely re-learning how to fly in the civilian sphere.



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 12:53 PM
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then some of them need to drink more.



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 01:00 PM
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a reply to: Barnalby

One of the biggest issues with military pilots going to airlines is the fact that after 20 years in the military you get full benefits after getting out. The Air Force increased the commitment to 10 years for pilots, so after that ends, you're only 9 years from retirement with full (not insubstantial benefits) retirement, after which you can still have another full 20 years with the airlines making more money.
edit on 7/28/2017 by Zaphod58 because: (no reason given)



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 01:09 PM
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a reply to: Zaphod58

Exactly. It's a killer combo.



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 01:21 PM
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One could argue that investing in fully automated flight with the option for ground based control would be the smart thing. This will be the future of any kind of mass transport.

Im surprised that the major commercial airlines haven't already a system in place that can take over the plane when the situation calls for it. Think about, one panic button and boom, all the controls in the cockpit are dead and the plane is controlled from the ground inbound to the nearest airport. The plane can no longer serve as a weapon in the wrong hands.



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 01:37 PM
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a reply to: Jubei42

You don't understand how the FAA thinks stuff like this through, do you... In their mind, the cost of two pilots for 121 operations is irrelevant, and as much a part of the basic costs of doing business as fuel or basic maintenance, while being just as critical/ non-negotiable a part of flying as the first two.

Ask yourself: when was the last time that a US part 121 carrier lost an aircraft to pilot error? You basically have to reach back the better part of a decade to the Buffalo crash. That's not accidental, and the FAA has spent a long, long time perfecting the way that passenger carriers and the pilots flying for them operate, all in the name of maximizing safety. To them, automated aircraft and remote control systems are just an extra layer of complexity, and by extension, something else that has the possibility to fail and jeopardize the safety of passengers and the public, and all for safety outcomes that have a long way to go before even being proven to match those of two pilot-operated passenger operations anywhere, much less in the US. The fact that it saves carriers money doesn't even begin to register on the FAA's radar.

There is a slim sliver of a chance that we see single-pilot operations in scheduled passenger service, but even that's decades away.
edit on 28-7-2017 by Barnalby because: (no reason given)



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 01:57 PM
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a reply to: Barnalby

And killing is the price. No matter who you kill or how good the reasons it's still a steep price to pay.



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 02:08 PM
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Plus, a pilot, who has 10-11 years in the military, doesn't want to come out and work for an airline making $70k on a probationary status. We've paid our aviation dues. We just wan to fly.

When I got out, I didn't look at airlines because I saw what happened in the post 9/11 downturn with the layoffs. I saw a Delta Captain turn to roofing because he was furloughed. That sucks.

So leave the military as a responsible O-4, get moved to the bottom of the pecking order as a probationary pilot and wait on the hook to get furloughed when the Top Heavy airlines can't pay their bills.

To say nothing of the fact that you're just driving the bus. Most pilots I know told me the same thing: The job is boring, it's the benefits that keep them in.

I'm still considering it, even in my 40s because I can still work 20 years in the airlines, but only because now I'm old and boring.



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 02:24 PM
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a reply to: Caughtlurking

Just look at the huge pushback there is in the rail industry towards rolling out Positive Train Control as mandated by the feds. Any automated piloting/control system would cost on the order of tens of billions, per airline, to roll out.



posted on Jul, 28 2017 @ 02:27 PM
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a reply to: cosmania

I'm beginning the long (civilian) road towards the airlines because $70k is still better than what I make today, and none of the downsides of the airline industry seem any worse than what I already put up with in my current line of work. And yeah, the benefits are a big draw.




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