Carmageddon is coming

Only someone who lives in or near a city can honestly believe this is going to happen anytime soon. The thing is that such a huge chunk of the country measures things not in blocks but in miles.

I live in Missouri. There are 3 "real" cities in Missouri: St. Louis, Kansas City, and Springfield. Springfield--the THIRD LARGEST CITY IN THE STATE--has about 175,000 people and you can drive across it during rush hour in 30 minutes. That's how big it is. Or isn't, lol.

Once you hit the city limits...you have farmland for miles and miles in two directions. You have a couple small-town suburbs that take another 5 minutes to drive through in the other 2 directions, then...nothing. You have small towns--VERY small towns of 1500-3000 people, and sometimes less (several of the towns near me have populations only in the hundreds)--dotted around here and there every 30 miles or so...but that's it. Most of the state is farmland.

Nobody is going to be in any hurry to install charging stations in all these little hamlets. No one in rural areas like this is going to be in a hurry to buy a car that will only go 60 miles before it has to be recharged. None of the farmers is going to be replacing his heavy work truck with a puny little electric car, or getting rid of the mind-bogglingly expensive farm equipment he'll already be paying on till he dies to buy an electric version. And nobody is going to be hopping on the self-driving car bandwagon anytime soon out here.

Also, the only electric cars available are going to be new ones. And sure, there are plenty of people who can afford a new car. But there are many, many more who can't. How many people buy a "new" used car every few years instead because they can afford the payment on a $5000 used car but not on a $15,000 new one? How many CAN'T afford even that $5000 and buy an even older cheaper one for $1500. Will they suddenly, magically, find themselves able to buy a new electric car? Not likely. There are tons of people driving 20-year old cars. There are even more driving 10-yr old ones. Are they all going just disappear in a lightning bolt?

Nope.

Where I live, a large chunk of the population is still stuck with 56k dial-up internet, for God's sake. Electric charging stations aren't coming to our area any time soon, nor is the increased income we'd need in order to purchase electric cars. And much of the country is made up of areas like this (ok, sans the dial-up internet, maybe). Look at the "flyover states" of the electoral map.

The city-dwellers would like to think that they're representative of the entire country, but the truth is that the whole center of the country is rural. And what works in the city doesn't necessarily work in the country. Change might come swiftly in the cities, but anything that happens here will happen very slowly.

After all, we're still waiting for broadband.

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

A tiny off topic, but I have a ride on electric mower. This thing is fantastic. It is more powerful than my gas one, cuts awesome, cleaner, cooler, faster, charges my phone, is quiet, no gas to buy or fiddle with, long term maintenance cost way less, doesn't pollute. What is not to like. The run time vs. charge time is much more than I would have ever imagined. I think most people think, oh electric could not be more powerful, but they are wrong. My neighbor saw our mower and asked to borrow it and when he brought it back he said he had mower envy! I think if people actually tried electric vs. gas they would be won over too, same for cars!

a reply to: markosity1973

Or, here in the states, white tail deer. Nearly hit two of 'em last night, about thirty seconds apart.

I'm, apparently, an old curmudgeon, because I prefer to do my own driving, thank you.

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
a reply to: lordcomac

The cost and complexity of batteries will hinder the adoption rate- self driving cars will run petrol for some time.

I would have thought the major hurdle would be making an energy source that could get away from fossil fuels, at least at this point they are fueled by coal seam gas and will be until there is a game changer.

However as the article points out it will devastate the car industry as we know it and that is why the major players are in full conversion mode.

The first stage is to move to hybrid cars - the combustion engine can charge batteries or drive the main axle, while the batteries can drive the electric motor.

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

originally posted by: SprocketUK
After watching the TT zero for years and seeing companies such as Harley embrace electrics, I'd be dead keen on a decent electric bike.

The speed is there, just need a bit more range.

Give it a few years...

Yeah, like I said before, all we are waiting on is the range.

I was speaking to a woman I deliver to the other day about her Tesla and she reckons she can drive it to London and back from Cheltenham. Give me that sorta range and an electric bike would be a beaut.

I'd still miss the noise and the ability to fix it on the side of a road with a hammer and some duct tape, but the acceleration would make up for that I reckon.

originally posted by: seagull
a reply to: markosity1973

Or, here in the states, white tail deer. Nearly hit two of 'em last night, about thirty seconds apart.

I'm, apparently, an old curmudgeon, because I prefer to do my own driving, thank you.

I'm with you on the self drive tech. In a few generations and after some massive law suits because people died when they shouldn't have, it will probably have matured enough to trust.

But right now, I ain't gonna be nobody's guinea pig. Especially when they are publicly admitting the technology cannot cope with the exact animal I see about 20 of in the forest every single trip, twice a day.

Remember, people.

Everyone used to think horses & steamships were here to stay, too.

Now they're pets, and novelty trips.

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
a reply to: markosity1973


There is a simple answer you are thinking in todays readily available technology, the big players in automotive technology are all shifting their ingenuity into electric, it is the future no matter how much you protest it.

It don't give a damn what the manufacturers are doing. If they stop making the cars I want new, people like me will simply keep buying used because we have no option.

Capitalism is a 2 way street, they can make, but I don't have to buy you know.......

So, unlike your articles wild prediction, there could be a solid demand for used gas / diesel people drive cars if the manufacturers are stupid enough to axe them or price them too high.

I flat enjoy driving. I even, sort of, enjoy the hideous traffic in the coastal cities like Seattle and Portland. If only so my middle digit gets a workout .

I don't want to be a passenger in my own car. That holds no appeal, at all. Irregardless of the safety considerations of new tech., though that is a concern.

a reply to: seagull

I am with you, I enjoy driving and the older I get the older the vehicle I find myself looking for; I also enjoy working on my car.

originally posted by: markosity1973

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
a reply to: markosity1973


There is a simple answer you are thinking in todays readily available technology, the big players in automotive technology are all shifting their ingenuity into electric, it is the future no matter how much you protest it.

It don't give a damn what the manufacturers are doing. If they stop making the cars I want new, people like me will simply keep buying used because we have no option.

Capitalism is a 2 way street, they can make, but I don't have to buy you know.......

So, unlike your articles wild prediction, there could be a solid demand for used gas / diesel people drive cars if the manufacturers are stupid enough to axe them or price them too high.

So you are saying even if you have to pay far more you will keep your petrol guzzler no matter what?

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

Manufacturing the batteries for electric cars is incredibly toxic, not to mention the dearth of rare earth elements for those batteries.

Then you have to wonder just exactly where all that electricity is coming from ...

Then you will have to figure it will all be taxed into unaffordability because the government will need to replace gas tax revenue somehow ...

Plus, those batteries do not have long life making a simple day trip into a multiple day excursion due to 8 hour charge times.

a reply to: ketsuko

North Korea has large deposits of various rare-earths... Just sayin'...

Incredibly toxic is actually something of an understatement.

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

Electric car, no problem. I kinda like some of 'em.

Self-driving...? Big problem. I'm my own chauffeur, thank you.

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

originally posted by: markosity1973

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
a reply to: markosity1973


There is a simple answer you are thinking in todays readily available technology, the big players in automotive technology are all shifting their ingenuity into electric, it is the future no matter how much you protest it.

It don't give a damn what the manufacturers are doing. If they stop making the cars I want new, people like me will simply keep buying used because we have no option.

Capitalism is a 2 way street, they can make, but I don't have to buy you know.......

So, unlike your articles wild prediction, there could be a solid demand for used gas / diesel people drive cars if the manufacturers are stupid enough to axe them or price them too high.

So you are saying even if you have to pay far more you will keep your petrol guzzler no matter what?

I am saying that I will keep with what I've got until something that is fit for purpose for my daily travel needs comes along.

I have repeatedly pointed out that electric cars DO NOT have the range I need to get to and from work on a daily basis. And those trips to Adelaide / Melbourne would take days with all the charging breaks.

There are no charging stations in my town or any town near me. And even if there were, I don't want to have to wait several hours to recharge when I get here just to spend 1/2 hour buying groceries.

Electric simply cannot and does not in its current form offer any benefits to me as a consumer. In fact it would make my life a lot more difficult. Why would I bother when what I've got works perfectly okay and I'm happy with it?

As I keep saying, electric is fine for the city where people only travel short distances to work and the shops. But in its current form it's not suitable for country living.

a reply to: seagull

I'm not a big fan of the automation of vehicles either , the electric car however I could really like ,less cost more power...

a reply to: ketsuko

I agree with what to our say here, electric cars are still powered by coal in the sense they are charged on the grid .

Pollution is also an issue, but given ten years that will all change. Hopefully anyway.

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

My only real issue with the cars, other than the absolute toxicity of the batteries, and their manufacturing, is the range. I live in rural America--I need range, because gettin' stuck out in the middle of nowhere is not my idea of a fun day...

It's only a matter of time until they're a usable, for most, product--right now, purely a niche product. An interesting one, though.

a reply to: seagull

I hear ya, I'm willing to give these companies the benefit of the doubt, companies like Mercedes have a track record of producing great stuff.

I'm betting they solve the distance and toxicity issues over the next decade.