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originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: missed_gear
You can't vote without some form of ID.
I've never voted where they didn't check and because I just voted Tuesday in a local primary it's fresh in my mind. They ask you to state your address while they confirm it on a computer and they look at your license or ID card. I also had my voter registration card out just because...
The lady was like " yeah you're all prepared" I said " I don't mess around when it comes to voting".
originally posted by: Grambler
a reply to: Greven
Ok Ill do this.
The article shows that 7 omething million illegals were registered in 2008 and
Mr. Agresti’s analysis of the same polling data settled on much higher numbers. He estimated that as many as 7.9 million noncitizens were illegally registered that year and 594,000 to 5.7 million voted.
So Yes, the 5.7 s the high estimation.
Your claims about verified voting being required is answered by the article.
First, why would someone lie and say they were a non citizen and voted? And why do you not take into account that people may have lied who said they were non citizens that didnt vote?
Which group would be more likely to lie?
First, the critics assume that people who stated “I definitely voted” and specifically identified a choice of candidate did not vote—unless Catalist verified that they voted. This is illogical, because Catalist is unlikely to verify respondents who use fraudulent identities, and millions of non-citizens use them.
This is shown in a 2013 investigation by the U.S. Social Security Administration, which found that about 1.8 million illegal immigrants worked in 2010 by using a Social Security number “that did not match their name.” Furthermore, the study found that another 0.7 million illegal immigrants worked in 2010 with Social Security numbers that they obtained by using “fraudulent birth certificates.” Notably, a Social Security number is a common requirement for voter registration.
The Harvard survey and Catalist data evince such identity fraud, because 90% of all survey respondents were matched by Catalist, while most non-citizen respondents were not. In the 2008 and 2012 surveys, only 41% and 43% of non-citizens were matched by Catalist respectively. These low match rates are revealing given that the Catalist database contains reams of data on “more than 240 million unique voting-age individuals.” This amounts to 98% of the 245 million adults who live in the U.S.
Hence, to ignore all votes not matched by Catalist will ensure that most non-citizens are excluded. This is especially true of those who fraudulently use a Social Security number, who are the very same people who have an open door to voting.
And for anyone on the fence, your range of possible non citizen voters starts at zero. That is clearly not a reaonable assumption.
Applying this 11.2% figure to the Census Bureau’s estimate of 19.4 million adult non-citizens in the U.S., this amounts to 2.2 million non-citizens who voted illegally in the 2008 election. After weighting these results and accounting for margins of error, the authors estimated that a maximum of 2.8 million non-citizens voted in 2008.
On the low side, the authors noted that only five non-citizens who said they voted were recorded in the Catalist database as voting. If these were the only people who voted, it would mean that 1.5% (5/339) of non-citizens voted. Applied to 19.4 million adult non-citizens, this amounts to 290,000 votes. After weighting these results and accounting for margins of error, the authors estimated that a bare minimum of 38,000 non-citizens voted in the 2008 election.
Using other data from the survey, the authors refined their high and low estimates to produce a “best guess” that 6.4% or 1.2 million non-citizens cast votes in 2008. The survey also showed that 81.8% of non-citizen voters reported that they voted for Obama.
from same source as above.
You can massage the numbers all you want. The fact is, 11.2% of non citizens claimed they voted. Even at the low number of those verified on Catalist, that is still 1.5% which would be 38,00 illegal votes, which is an astonishing number that needs investigated.
Now as far as is it fare to extrapolate this survey to national numbers, I share your concern and have said so in this thread.
That is why I asked for another study showing low numbers of illegal voting, but I have yet to see one.
originally posted by: nwtrucker
originally posted by: buster2010
We are still waiting for proof of those three million illegals that voted in the last election. A panel headed up by the VP? That is pretty stupid the person heading in should be neutral not already obligated to do what Trump wants.
How about proof that there wasn't three million illegal voters?
That's how the left operates with their accusations....
originally posted by: Pyle
Its funny the same people that were crying about national IDs (which would prevent what this GOP funded/ran study is out to prove) are now pushing to force people to get IDs.
originally posted by: GokuVsSuperman0
a reply to: D8Tee
Between 500,000 and 6,000,000 or 30,000 and 3,000,000...those are some massive margins of error. Also most illegals are Latino, and Trump did better with Latinos then Romney did, so WTF are we talking about here?