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New study supports Trump: 5.7 million noncitizens may have cast illegal votes

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posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 08:58 PM
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originally posted by: D8Tee
a reply to: face23785

The paper is here if you want to read it, not sure if you have or not?
Richman Paper
It was published in the Electoral Studies Journal.

I can't see whats wrong with looking at this issue in more detail, there's obviously some kind of problem.


The data used for this paper is from the 2008 and 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies, based on the files released by Stephen Ansolabehere (2010, 2011) . The 2008 and 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies (CCES) were conducted by YouGov/Polimetrix of Palo Alto, CA as an internet-based survey using a sample selected to mirror the demographic characteristics of the U.S. popula­tion. In both years survey data was collected in two waves: pre-election in October, and then post-election in November.

Herein lies the problem: internet polling data.

It's basically alleging up to 25% of the non-citizen population of the United States voted, founded on suspect data with liberally applied statistics.
edit on 20Tue, 20 Jun 2017 20:59:37 -0500America/ChicagovAmerica/Chicago6 by Greven because: (no reason given)




posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 09:04 PM
link   

originally posted by: Greven

originally posted by: D8Tee
a reply to: face23785

The paper is here if you want to read it, not sure if you have or not?
Richman Paper
It was published in the Electoral Studies Journal.

I can't see whats wrong with looking at this issue in more detail, there's obviously some kind of problem.


The data used for this paper is from the 2008 and 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies, based on the files released by Stephen Ansolabehere (2010, 2011) . The 2008 and 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies (CCES) were conducted by YouGov/Polimetrix of Palo Alto, CA as an internet-based survey using a sample selected to mirror the demographic characteristics of the U.S. popula­tion. In both years survey data was collected in two waves: pre-election in October, and then post-election in November.

Herein lies the problem: internet polling data.

It's basically alleging up to 25% of the non-citizen population of the United States voted.


I believe you are misreading that.

It was not an internet poll where anyone could vote. I was more controlled and only sent to a limited amount of people that Harvard picked.

For example, In this 2008 survey of 32,800 respondents, 339 identified themselves as non-citizens.

You think 339 people is 25% of the non citizens in the US?

Estimates have them over 19 million.



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 09:08 PM
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a reply to: Greven

I suspect you could find more too. Have at it. Right now you're at 0.03% were mistakes. Of course there's mistakes, you're dealing with thousands of records, generated by people and being examined by people. Reality check. Even if only half of them were legit, that's a huge #ing problem.



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 09:10 PM
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a reply to: Greven



It's basically alleging up to 25% of the non-citizen population of the United States voted.


The paper itself does not say that.

Taking the least conservative measure e at least one indicator showed that the respondent voted e yields an estimate that between 7.9% and 14.7% percent of non-citizens voted in 2008. Since the adult noncitizen population of the United States was roughly 19.4 million (CPS, 2011), the number of non-citizen voters (including both uncertainty based on normally distributed sampling error, and the various combinations of verified and reported voting) could range from just over 38,000 at the very minimum to nearly 2.8 million at the maximum.


Regardless of the numbers, it certainly bears further investigation does it not?



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 09:26 PM
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originally posted by: D8Tee
a reply to: Greven



It's basically alleging up to 25% of the non-citizen population of the United States voted.


The paper itself does not say that.

Taking the least conservative measure e at least one indicator showed that the respondent voted e yields an estimate that between 7.9% and 14.7% percent of non-citizens voted in 2008. Since the adult noncitizen population of the United States was roughly 19.4 million (CPS, 2011), the number of non-citizen voters (including both uncertainty based on normally distributed sampling error, and the various combinations of verified and reported voting) could range from just over 38,000 at the very minimum to nearly 2.8 million at the maximum.


Regardless of the numbers, it certainly bears further investigation does it not?

It's been investigated multiple times all over the place.

This 'paper' you link isn't the source of the article - note that it is from 2014 and doesn't mention 5.7 million anywhere... unlike the article.



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 09:31 PM
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originally posted by: MOMof3
a reply to: D8Tee

The study was done by a self described conservative group. I don't trust them already.
The study was done with interviews. Whoopee.



Obama encourages illegal aliens to vote without fear of being deported.



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 09:33 PM
link   

originally posted by: Greven

originally posted by: D8Tee
a reply to: Greven



It's basically alleging up to 25% of the non-citizen population of the United States voted.


The paper itself does not say that.

Taking the least conservative measure e at least one indicator showed that the respondent voted e yields an estimate that between 7.9% and 14.7% percent of non-citizens voted in 2008. Since the adult noncitizen population of the United States was roughly 19.4 million (CPS, 2011), the number of non-citizen voters (including both uncertainty based on normally distributed sampling error, and the various combinations of verified and reported voting) could range from just over 38,000 at the very minimum to nearly 2.8 million at the maximum.


Regardless of the numbers, it certainly bears further investigation does it not?

It's been investigated multiple times all over the place.

This 'paper' you link isn't the source of the article - note that it is from 2014 and doesn't mention 5.7 million anywhere... unlike the article.


All of this has been gone over in the thread.



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 09:33 PM
link   

originally posted by: Grambler

originally posted by: Greven

originally posted by: D8Tee
a reply to: face23785

The paper is here if you want to read it, not sure if you have or not?
Richman Paper
It was published in the Electoral Studies Journal.

I can't see whats wrong with looking at this issue in more detail, there's obviously some kind of problem.


The data used for this paper is from the 2008 and 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies, based on the files released by Stephen Ansolabehere (2010, 2011) . The 2008 and 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies (CCES) were conducted by YouGov/Polimetrix of Palo Alto, CA as an internet-based survey using a sample selected to mirror the demographic characteristics of the U.S. popula­tion. In both years survey data was collected in two waves: pre-election in October, and then post-election in November.

Herein lies the problem: internet polling data.

It's basically alleging up to 25% of the non-citizen population of the United States voted.


I believe you are misreading that.

It was not an internet poll where anyone could vote. I was more controlled and only sent to a limited amount of people that Harvard picked.

For example, In this 2008 survey of 32,800 respondents, 339 identified themselves as non-citizens.

You think 339 people is 25% of the non citizens in the US?

Estimates have them over 19 million.


What???
No, the 'up to' 5.7 million figure from the title. Also, it's not 19 million but 22.6 million.

This is straight from the site:

Based on:

the number of non-citizens in this poll, the margin of sampling error for their self-declared voting is ± 5 percentage points with at least 95% confidence.
the number of non-citizens in this poll who were in the database, the margin of sampling error for their undeclared voting is ± 8 percentage points with at least 95% confidence.
these study results and Census Bureau population estimates, 594,000 to 5.7 million non-citizens voted illegally in the 2008 election.

* Uncertainties in the data above that could overstate or understate the number of non-citizens registered or voting include the following:

The YouGov data was collected via an internet poll, which are generally unreliable because they do not collect a random sample of respondents.

That's where the 5.7 million figure comes from and that's what it says about the uncertainties.



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 09:39 PM
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originally posted by: face23785
a reply to: Greven

I suspect you could find more too. Have at it. Right now you're at 0.03% were mistakes. Of course there's mistakes, you're dealing with thousands of records, generated by people and being examined by people. Reality check. Even if only half of them were legit, that's a huge #ing problem.

Is it?

Virginia records for removal cite 'non-citizen' but here's a question I haven't found the answer to:

Does that mean a non-citizen of the United States - or does it mean a non-citizen of Virginia?

Those are two very different things.



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 09:41 PM
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a reply to: Greven

The survey interviewed 300 someting non citizens in 2008. Simialr numbers in the other years.

That is not 25% of the non citizen population.

I don't know how I can make this any clearer?

Do you realize that you are claiming there are only 1200 illegals in the country?

Of Course it says there are uncertainties. I have been highlighting them.

They give top and bottom estimates. Low estimates that include the uncertainties say there ware sill tens of thousands of illegals voting.

The 5.7 number comes from the percentage of non citizens that were surveyed that claimed they voted, which were between 7 and 14 % of them.

If you take 14% of all non citizens and claimed they voted, you get the 5.7 million number.

Yes you have accurately pointed out that the people that did this study pointed out possible probelms with it.

And yet they still conclude that at least tens of thousands of illegals could have voted.

Can you provide a study that is better than this?



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 10:11 PM
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a reply to: Grambler

Don't worry, Soros will pay them to investigate



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 10:26 PM
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originally posted by: buster2010
We are still waiting for proof of those three million illegals that voted in the last election. A panel headed up by the VP? That is pretty stupid the person heading in should be neutral not already obligated to do what Trump wants.


Neutral? What a joke, nobody is neutral in DC. Tell you what when,if, your team wins again you once more get to pick the players just like Obama and Clinton did.



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 10:31 PM
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originally posted by: nwtrucker

originally posted by: buster2010
We are still waiting for proof of those three million illegals that voted in the last election. A panel headed up by the VP? That is pretty stupid the person heading in should be neutral not already obligated to do what Trump wants.


How about proof that there wasn't three million illegal voters?

That's how the left operates with their accusations....


Or, it's settled science. Anyone who says there were not millions of illegals voting is delusional or ignorant.



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 10:59 PM
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originally posted by: SoulSurfer

originally posted by: MOMof3
a reply to: D8Tee

The study was done by a self described conservative group. I don't trust them already.
The study was done with interviews. Whoopee.



Obama encourages illegal aliens to vote without fear of being deported.

He knows which way those people will vote.



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 11:09 PM
link   

originally posted by: Grambler
a reply to: Greven

The survey interviewed 300 someting non citizens in 2008. Simialr numbers in the other years.

That is not 25% of the non citizen population.

I don't know how I can make this any clearer?

Do you realize that you are claiming there are only 1200 illegals in the country?

Of Course it says there are uncertainties. I have been highlighting them.

They give top and bottom estimates. Low estimates that include the uncertainties say there ware sill tens of thousands of illegals voting.

The 5.7 number comes from the percentage of non citizens that were surveyed that claimed they voted, which were between 7 and 14 % of them.

If you take 14% of all non citizens and claimed they voted, you get the 5.7 million number.

Yes you have accurately pointed out that the people that did this study pointed out possible probelms with it.

And yet they still conclude that at least tens of thousands of illegals could have voted.

Can you provide a study that is better than this?


I've stated QUITE CLEARLY that 5.7 million (the title and that site I keep linking) / 22.6 million (the site's US Census cited estimate in 2015 for non-citizens) = ~25%. I don't know how I can make this any clearer and quite frankly don't have the time to waste doing so further. If you want to choose a '19 million non-citizen' figure, then that upper estimate is even greater than 25%. And in fact, you're right - it is 19,805,000 that they use.

The internet survey had a sample size of 32,800 in 2008 and of those, 339 claimed they were non-citizens. Of those 339, 140 were apparently verified against a separate database - 0.4%. Of the 339, 38 reported that they voted, had their vote verified, or both. Only 5 of the 38 were verified and self-reported, and a total of 16 of the 38 were verified to have voted. 27 claimed to have voted. 16 - 5 = 11 unreported voters. 11 unreported voters + 27 reported voters = 38.

Their conclusions are pretty suspect, as it's based on a very small portion of respondents to an internet poll. If you were to not adjust things for around and did a straight population adjustment from (32,800 - 339) -> 304.1 million (2008 U.S.) you would have a ratio of 9368.165:1 so those 16 verified votes would reach 149,890.

A disproportionately few number of respondents identified as non-citizen. I see no reason whatsoever to extrapolate that a large portion of non-citizens voted. Even if you go by the portions in the study, that the 11.3% was actually representative of non-citizen voting rates, then 11.3% of 22.6 million (2015 Census estimate) is a whole lot less than 5.7 million (2.55 million). Less than half of those were verified to have voted (4.7%), which extrapolates to 1.06 million.

You can play a little bit with confidence intervals either way, but 5.7 million is rather a stretch. It's based on really sketchy statistics. 339 respondents are extrapolated to 19+ million, which is even worse now that I bother to look at it:


CALCULATIONS:
19,805,000 non-citizen adults × ((8% self-declared voting – 5% margin of error) + (8% undeclared voting – 8% margin of error)) = 2,772,700
19,805,000 non-citizen adults × ((8% self-declared voting + 5% margin of error) + (8% undeclared voting + 8% margin of error)) = 7,922,000

See, here's the thing: some people lie. Other people just don't mark things accurately, like that guy on the last page. They're also doing funny things with the numbers.

For example, they are picking the 27 who claimed to have voted in the November election. That comes from this:

Twenty seven indicated that “I definitely voted in the November General Election” and 16 had validated general election votes. Only five (1.5%) both claimed that they definitely voted and had a validated vote.

Of the total 339, only 16 had validated votes (11 undeclared, 5 declared).

Hold on - where does the 5.7 million come from? That's approximately 29%! How do we go from 16/339 to 98/339?

Check out their calculation again - the one that says 7,922,000. If you actually just plugin the numbers, you don't get 7,922,000 but 5,743,450... the 5.7 million that shows up earlier. An even 29% (as can be expected when you use 8%+5%+8%+8%=29%). Similarly, you don't get 2,772,700 from the first equation but 594,150... again the number that shows up earlier (8%-5%+8%-8%=3%).

So where do they get this 8% base value? Well, 339 * 8% = ~27. That would be, you guessed it, the 27 above that claimed to have voted. For some reason they also used this value for the undeclared voters.

If you instead use validated votes in these equations, you get 1.5% declared and 3.2% undeclared. If you use their equations on those numbers, you get a range from 0 to 17.7%, or 0 to 3,505,485.

Honestly, if they can't calculate from own equations consistently, I'm not sure I see what value they have. Also really tired now.
edit on 23Tue, 20 Jun 2017 23:35:41 -0500America/ChicagovAmerica/Chicago6 by Greven because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 11:29 PM
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a reply to: Greven

So your position is it's been studied enough, and time to just forget about it? The system is good as it stands?



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 11:37 PM
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a reply to: D8Tee

No. What we've seen (outside of internet polls and data pulled around like Stretch Armstrong) is rather small rates of voting fraud exist. It's there, it's just not a lot. It sure as hell ain't 5.7 million votes.



posted on Jun, 20 2017 @ 11:38 PM
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a reply to: Greven

Ok Ill do this.

The article shows that 7 omething million illegals were registered in 2008 and

Mr. Agresti’s analysis of the same polling data settled on much higher numbers. He estimated that as many as 7.9 million noncitizens were illegally registered that year and 594,000 to 5.7 million voted.


www.washingtontimes.com...

So Yes, the 5.7 s the high estimation.

Your claims about verified voting being required is answered by the article.

First, why would someone lie and say they were a non citizen and voted? And why do you not take into account that people may have lied who said they were non citizens that didnt vote?

Which group would be more likely to lie?


First, the critics assume that people who stated “I definitely voted” and specifically identified a choice of candidate did not vote—unless Catalist verified that they voted. This is illogical, because Catalist is unlikely to verify respondents who use fraudulent identities, and millions of non-citizens use them.

This is shown in a 2013 investigation by the U.S. Social Security Administration, which found that about 1.8 million illegal immigrants worked in 2010 by using a Social Security number “that did not match their name.” Furthermore, the study found that another 0.7 million illegal immigrants worked in 2010 with Social Security numbers that they obtained by using “fraudulent birth certificates.” Notably, a Social Security number is a common requirement for voter registration.

The Harvard survey and Catalist data evince such identity fraud, because 90% of all survey respondents were matched by Catalist, while most non-citizen respondents were not. In the 2008 and 2012 surveys, only 41% and 43% of non-citizens were matched by Catalist respectively. These low match rates are revealing given that the Catalist database contains reams of data on “more than 240 million unique voting-age individuals.” This amounts to 98% of the 245 million adults who live in the U.S.

Hence, to ignore all votes not matched by Catalist will ensure that most non-citizens are excluded. This is especially true of those who fraudulently use a Social Security number, who are the very same people who have an open door to voting.


www.justfactsdaily.com...

And for anyone on the fence, your range of possible non citizen voters starts at zero. That is clearly not a reaonable assumption.


Applying this 11.2% figure to the Census Bureau’s estimate of 19.4 million adult non-citizens in the U.S., this amounts to 2.2 million non-citizens who voted illegally in the 2008 election. After weighting these results and accounting for margins of error, the authors estimated that a maximum of 2.8 million non-citizens voted in 2008.

On the low side, the authors noted that only five non-citizens who said they voted were recorded in the Catalist database as voting. If these were the only people who voted, it would mean that 1.5% (5/339) of non-citizens voted. Applied to 19.4 million adult non-citizens, this amounts to 290,000 votes. After weighting these results and accounting for margins of error, the authors estimated that a bare minimum of 38,000 non-citizens voted in the 2008 election.

Using other data from the survey, the authors refined their high and low estimates to produce a “best guess” that 6.4% or 1.2 million non-citizens cast votes in 2008. The survey also showed that 81.8% of non-citizen voters reported that they voted for Obama.


from same source as above.

You can massage the numbers all you want. The fact is, 11.2% of non citizens claimed they voted. Even at the low number of those verified on Catalist, that is still 1.5% which would be 38,00 illegal votes, which is an astonishing number that needs investigated.

Now as far as is it fare to extrapolate this survey to national numbers, I share your concern and have said so in this thread.

That is why I asked for another study showing low numbers of illegal voting, but I have yet to see one.



posted on Jun, 21 2017 @ 12:00 AM
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a reply to: theantediluvian

A lot of stuff in the Bible is actually True...

Like the Mesha Stele corroborates some info in the book of 2 Kings.

I'm not saying it's perfect because I dunno and so many have tampered with it over the ages. I'm just curious why you think writing a book detailing why certain aspects of the Biblical record are accurate automatically discredits someone.

Are you truly this closed minded and bias?



posted on Jun, 21 2017 @ 12:01 AM
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a reply to: D8Tee

Hardly a surprise, we all saw how pissed they got over Trump winning/them losing a rigged election. If there was not election tampering i'll be a monkeys uncle! Such nonsense! Why can't it be a fair election? Why when it finally is and they still lose, they can't just suck it up? What the hell with wrong with liberal, one world asshats that makes no sense whatsoever? Sovereignty and borders, citizens rights, these things all exist for a reason.



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