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20 new science papers find climate driven by solar changes

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posted on May, 28 2017 @ 02:01 AM
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Enough!



The off topic nonsense stops now. Personal back and forth is not what the thread is about. Discuss the topic, or don't post.




posted on May, 28 2017 @ 02:06 AM
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a reply to: Justoneman


That does not actually make much sense given the way you responded to me initially.

I really like music a lot as well.


The fact remains (logic withstanding) that emitting all this crap on a daily basis into our atmosphere is really stupid as opposed to not doing that.

Do you disagree?



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 02:11 AM
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a reply to: Justoneman

This video at the bottom of this post was posted by member anonentity in another thread, I'm going to download it and have a look at it.

If we are indeed going into a solar minimum and the temps are going to drop, there is going to be a whole lot of people praying for some global warming.

There will be widespread famine with crop failing from frost and yields plummeting.

We've had the coldest spring here in as long as I can remember.

France had widepread frost and lost their grapes, be a bad year for wine production.Source

Frost, Hail Inflict Heavy Vineyard Damage Across France and Italy
Winegrowers from Champagne to Piedmont are fighting freezing temperatures that threaten early spring buds



Source

Global temperatures have dropped 0.5° Celsius in April according to Dr. Ryan Maue. In the Northern Hemisphere they plunged a massive 1°C . As the record 2015/16 El Nino levels off, the global warming hiatus aka “the pause” is back with a vengeance








edit on 28-5-2017 by D8Tee because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 02:25 AM
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2. Global Warming and Atlantic Hurricanes

A. Statistical relationships between SSTs and hurricanes

Observed records of Atlantic hurricane activity show some correlation, on multi-year time-scales, between local tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) —see for example Fig. 3 on this EPA Climate Indicators site. PDI is an aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity, combining frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes in a single index. Both Atlantic SSTs and PDI have risen sharply since the 1970s, and there is some evidence that PDI levels in recent years are higher than in the previous active Atlantic hurricane era in the 1950s and 60s.

Model-based climate change detection/attribution studies have linked increasing tropical Atlantic SSTs to increasing greenhouse gases, but the link between increasing greenhouse gases and hurricane PDI or frequency has been based on statistical correlations. The statistical linkage of Atlantic hurricane PDI to and Atlantic SST suggests at least the possibility of a large anthropogenic influence on Atlantic hurricanes. If the correlation between tropical Atlantic SSTs and hurricane activity is used to infer future changes in Atlantic hurricane activity, the implications are sobering: the large increases in tropical Atlantic SSTs projected for the late 21st century would imply very substantial increases in hurricane destructive potential–roughly a 300% increase in the PDI by 2100 (Figure 1a).



www.gfdl.noaa.gov...



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 07:42 AM
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originally posted by: D8Tee
a reply to: Justoneman

This video at the bottom of this post was posted by member anonentity in another thread, I'm going to download it and have a look at it.

If we are indeed going into a solar minimum and the temps are going to drop, there is going to be a whole lot of people praying for some global warming.

There will be widespread famine with crop failing from frost and yields plummeting.

We've had the coldest spring here in as long as I can remember.

France had widepread frost and lost their grapes, be a bad year for wine production.Source

Frost, Hail Inflict Heavy Vineyard Damage Across France and Italy
Winegrowers from Champagne to Piedmont are fighting freezing temperatures that threaten early spring buds



Source

Global temperatures have dropped 0.5° Celsius in April according to Dr. Ryan Maue. In the Northern Hemisphere they plunged a massive 1°C . As the record 2015/16 El Nino levels off, the global warming hiatus aka “the pause” is back with a vengeance









One of my coworkers have been espousing the belief that solar minimum is coming and he was a AGW guy till he dug into the El Nino/Solar min and max data. He and I were talking about this for about 15 years and he found some good papers to support his new perspective. It was that coworker who turned me onto the work of Dr Spencer and others in Huntsville AL who work with NASA. I kept saying the whole time since my college days that I was predicting a global cooling event. That was mostly because of the reasons the scientist's in the 70's and 80's were explaining about the Sun in those days. When the IPP people made it appear the experts in the field changed their tune, I was very suspicious that something was amiss. After Al Gore ignored the H2 car built at the very college he taught while claiming we needed alternative idea's I emailed him, sharing my credentials and the EPA leaders comments on TPTB wanting to keep Oil. Crickets were all I have from him. This was before he wanted a Carbon tax, or so I thought for years.

This suddenly made us realize it was political with all I had learned working with the Federal Gov scientists I personally befriended who like me, are very logical, with those scientist also having the realization that their coworkers were NOT very logical. I keep in contact with those scientists and we get a good laugh at how nice it is to have someone LOGICAL to discuss science with us.

We WERE big on Al Gore running for POTUS in my family until that point. That was the last straw for me as a Democrat. I once again was a voter of the Libertarian despite my friends saying I was wasting my vote. I voted Libertarian Ron Paul anyway so I could sleep a hard sleep knowing I don't support those power mongers who were starting to show bad signs of hating our freedoms. For the record Bush and Clinton got me started leaning away from those idiots and going neither party but my whole family was considering Gore. The fact of the matter was we were actually realizing together that the Dems had become bad for the Black people in our community and connected the racist dots of their ugly past with the help of our Republican friends. Some of which were convinced I was right about global COOLING too. So, I found some like minded people for good measure when my family started leaning to the R's (and we don't like RINO's or DINO's)!

The only way out now is going with the data and follow the truth.



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 07:51 AM
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originally posted by: Kashai

www.gfdl.noaa.gov...


So please, explain why the Hurricanes diminished. I am curious to the answers.

ETA

The models are not working right was my position in this thread and I gave you the information I had . So, muster some information to provide proof that they are working, if you are so sure of your position
edit on 28-5-2017 by Justoneman because: ETA



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 01:57 PM
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a reply to: Justoneman

From your link.



An implication of the GFDL studies is that if the frequency of tropical cyclones remains the same over the coming century, a greenhouse-gas induced warming may lead to an increasing risk globally in the occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms.




The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earth’s climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricanes will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation (Figure 11) is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical sea surface temperatures.




In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm counts over the past 120+ yr support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. One modeling study projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, but we estimate that this increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century.

Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations between SST and Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.) However, human activity may have already caused some changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).




As noted above, there is some indication from high resolution models of substantial increases in the numbers of the most intense hurricanes even if the overall number of tropical storms or hurricanes decreases




The model also supports the notion of a substantial decrease (~25%) in the overall number of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms with projected 21st century climate warming. However, using the CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model climate projections, the hurricane model also projects that the lifetime maximum intensity of Atlantic hurricanes will increase by about 5% during the 21st century in general agreement with previous studies. The hurricane model further projects a significant increase (+90%) in the frequency of very intense (category 4 and 5) hurricanes using the CMIP3/A1B 18-model average climate change projection (Fig. 7).




A review of existing studies, including the ones cited above, lead us to conclude that it is likely that greenhouse warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes


Does not appear your providing accurate information.

Perhaps you should read the whole article instead of cherry pick and then conclude it says what you think it says.

Which it does not.




edit on 28-5-2017 by Kashai because: Added content



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 03:34 PM
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originally posted by: Kashai
a reply to: Justoneman

From your link.



An implication of the GFDL studies is that if the frequency of tropical cyclones remains the same over the coming century, a greenhouse-gas induced warming may lead to an increasing risk globally in the occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms.




The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earth’s climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricanes will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation (Figure 11) is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical sea surface temperatures.




In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm counts over the past 120+ yr support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. One modeling study projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, but we estimate that this increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century.

Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations between SST and Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.) However, human activity may have already caused some changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).




As noted above, there is some indication from high resolution models of substantial increases in the numbers of the most intense hurricanes even if the overall number of tropical storms or hurricanes decreases




The model also supports the notion of a substantial decrease (~25%) in the overall number of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms with projected 21st century climate warming. However, using the CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model climate projections, the hurricane model also projects that the lifetime maximum intensity of Atlantic hurricanes will increase by about 5% during the 21st century in general agreement with previous studies. The hurricane model further projects a significant increase (+90%) in the frequency of very intense (category 4 and 5) hurricanes using the CMIP3/A1B 18-model average climate change projection (Fig. 7).




A review of existing studies, including the ones cited above, lead us to conclude that it is likely that greenhouse warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes


Does not appear your providing accurate information.

Perhaps you should read the whole article instead of cherry pick and then conclude it says what you think it says.

Which it does not.





what link, Source please? you cherry picker you.

John Lennon

said

Your "playing those mind games, ah ha aaaa.. "

I didn't source any such thing and if you can prove it I will gracefully apologize.

I asked you to ATTEMPT to explain why the Hurricanes didn't do what the models claimed and you act like I am a some kind of a creep??!?!?

Stick to the thread and not the accusations.......
edit on 28-5-2017 by Justoneman because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 03:37 PM
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a reply to: Justoneman


LOL laughing with you not at you.


That's the same link you provided in the post I responded to.



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 03:40 PM
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originally posted by: Kashai
a reply to: Justoneman


LOL laughing with you not at you.


That's the same link you provided in the post I responded to.


Not me I don't see the ONE you refer to either.



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 03:40 PM
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originally posted by: Kashai


LOL at what,,, you seem confused.
edit on 28-5-2017 by Justoneman because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 03:44 PM
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originally posted by: Kashai
a reply to: Justoneman

From your link.


Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations between SST and Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.) However, human activity may have already caused some changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).


THIS Link where it states it is PREMATURE to conclude that there will be a detectable Is not mine but the models failing is my comment.
edit on 28-5-2017 by Justoneman because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 03:46 PM
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a reply to: Justoneman


I mean this one...

www.gfdl.noaa.gov...

the cherry picker comment you made was funny in the way you said it



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 03:48 PM
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originally posted by: Kashai
a reply to: Justoneman


I mean this one...

www.gfdl.noaa.gov...

the cherry picker comment you made was funny in the way you said it


Thank you I needed the laughs I am getting.

Suggested reading for all..

www.westegg.com...
edit on 28-5-2017 by Justoneman because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 03:52 PM
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originally posted by: Kashai
a reply to: Justoneman


I mean this one...

www.gfdl.noaa.gov...

the cherry picker comment you made was funny in the way you said it


That was D8tee's link.



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 04:11 PM
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a reply to: Kashai



Does not appear your providing accurate information.

ATS is not here so that we can copy and paste the majority of an article into a thread. If you continue to provide long mulitparagraph quotes or spam the thread with off topic comments, I will report you to the mods for review.




Perhaps you should read the whole article instead of cherry pick and then conclude it says what you think it says.
Who provided that link in the first place?


Tell me, did the climate models predict this?


edit on 28-5-2017 by D8Tee because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 04:34 PM
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a reply to: D8Tee



You have the same problem the data makes clear you are wrong.

Global warming is a real problem the link in no way denies that if anything it affirms it.


This is getting silly.



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 04:38 PM
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originally posted by: Kashai
a reply to: D8Tee



You have the same problem the data makes clear you are wrong.

Global warming is a real problem the link in no way denies that if anything it affirms it.


This is getting silly.



You don't understand the difference between empirical data and a semi-empircal model crafted from that data and your posting makes that obvious. If I am wrong, your next post will explain the difference. If I am right, you will deflect and defend and perhaps post a music video to bury this post.

Also, can you provide in this thread the first instance of that NOAA post that you claim the original poster of it didn't read? I suspect it was you who introduced the link, but I'm unsure and don't have time to look back through the thread, thanks for helping.
edit on 28-5-2017 by D8Tee because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 04:46 PM
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a reply to: Justoneman

Yea my bad I was doing three things at once
and did not catch that.


Number of tropical storms and hurricanes per season


en.wikipedia.org...

It fluctuates based upon history but again as offered in D8tee's link...

Laughter is free



posted on May, 28 2017 @ 04:51 PM
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a reply to: Kashai




It fluctuates based upon history but again as offered in D8tee's link...

Was that my link? Can you show me where I initially posted it?
edit on 28-5-2017 by D8Tee because: (no reason given)



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