Early (Sub) Tropical Depression Forms in Atlantic

As a resident of the Florida Gulf Coast and working in the field of risk management, the approach of hurricane season is more than just a news event. It can majorly impact every life around here. So, a storm, even a minor and non-threatening storm, forming in mid-April gets my immediate attention and makes me wonder about the hurricane season approaching and what to expect.

Every year, Colorado State University (Dr. Philip Klotzbach) publishes forecasts, but I put only a small amount of stock in such fortune telling. This year, CSU predicts as follows:

". . . 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes between the months of June and November."

I am not sure if an early storm forming will cause any re-assessment of the predictions which were published earlier this month. For what its worth, Hurricane Season officially begins on June 1st and, in most years, there are not usually many storms before mid-late August.

"According to the NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only four April tropical or subtropical depressions have formed in recorded history in the Atlantic. Only one of these—Tropical Storm Ana of 2003—became a named tropical storm. An unnamed April subtropical storm in 1992 also achieved tropical storm-force winds, and two other April tropical depressions formed in 1981 and 1973."

I sort of remember Ana in 2003. 2003 turned out to not be a remarkable year for storms, but 2004-2006 were quite serious.


Weather Underground Link

a reply to: Slave2theTruth

I heard about this, isn't it like the 1st time in 14 years or something like for it happen this early?

Early bird catches the worm. I wonder if it's name will be Robin?

a reply to: slapjacks

The last April storm was in 2003. It was the only time an April storm was named. It was Ana.

It has happened a total of 4 times since they have been keeping records on such things.

a reply to: rickymouse

Robin would be appropriate, but if it did manage to grow into a full storm, it would be named "Arlene"

I'll be in Clearwater in 29 days!! I'll try to bring some non storm weather with me!

Does the Gulf coast usually get a lot of hurricanes that are high damage/casualty producing in your experience there?

Crazy that it could be starting so soon this year.

-Alee

Yeah, shaking in my alligator boots, the weather man is never wrong!!
Doom porn of the weather kind, don't they aways say the worst season is coming this year?? I guess eventually they'll get it right!!

a reply to: NerdGoddess

Actually Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater have historically been spared any massive storm hits for quite along time. In fact, the last time a major storm made direct impact in this area was 1921. Even when Florida got battered in 2004-2005, the only storms we got were weakened storms that had traveled across the state.

Most likely, the storm today is just an anomaly, but it is hard to live here and not get obsessive.

a reply to: WUNK22

Actually, the forecast is only slightly above average.

Last year, CSU predicted 12 total named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. So, this year's forecast of 11 total, 4 hurricanes and 2 majors is actually slightly less than last year.

My grandparent's generation always maintained that we on the south coast of England always catch the tail end of sub-tropical storms that hit the US in a depleted form two weeks later, or so. Meteorologists say that is not the case. Whom should I believe? Theoretical Academics that are frequently inaccurate, or a shore dwelling generation with lifetimes of practical experience.

originally posted by: NerdGoddess
I'll be in Clearwater in 29 days!! I'll try to bring some non storm weather with me!

Does the Gulf coast usually get a lot of hurricanes that are high damage/casualty producing in your experience there?

Crazy that it could be starting so soon this year.

-Alee

I would say the Gulf Coast region from say Destin down to Charlotte Harbor area normally see lower numbers of named storms making land fall as compared to East Coast or Pensacola on down to Mexico. Now when the Gulf Coast area I mentioned above does get hit it is usually a pretty good storm. The Gulf waters tend to be a lot warmer and when storms sit over or move into the Gulf they usually strengthen pretty fast.

a reply to: Slave2theTruth

Gulf Coast...Me too what part?

I'm in the Emerald Coast area.

a reply to: GuidedKill

The warm Gulf of Mexico waters, especially in July-Sept is the big fear on this coast. When storms do come this way, they often go through what they call rapid intensification.

The real fear in Tampa Bay is the impact of massive flooding. I have even seen one model which predicts that a perfect Cat 4/5 storm hitting just the right point in Tampa Bay could cause Pinellas County (i.e., St. Petersburg) to become an island by carving a massive flood channel between the Gulf and the Bay.

a reply to: Slave2theTruth

I'm with you. There are many areas just like Tampa that with the right storm surge would be devastating. Tampa like New Orleans are just so densely populated the potential loss of life and property is staggering. Hell some of the worst hit areas in Katrina were East of New Orleans... Gulf Port, Biloxi Etc. They just aren't as populated.

I'm just happy my particular area is not "as much" in the crosshairs.

Stay safe this season my friend.

Just some plain old rain would be great right about now.. Just sayin.

originally posted by: Slave2theTruth
a reply to: rickymouse

Robin would be appropriate, but if it did manage to grow into a full storm, it would be named "Arlene"

I used to know a girl named Arlene. Ooooh, this could be a hell of a wild time.

a reply to: Slave2theTruth

Seeing a storm this early really is concerning. I remember the '04-'06 time period, down there, and yeah, was a mess! We missed the worst of that, but caught plenty of the edges. More than enough for me!

Seems like it could be a bad year, but who knows? Hope not; have a daughter and grandkids down there!

originally posted by: Slave2theTruth
a reply to: NerdGoddess

Actually Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater have historically been spared any massive storm hits for quite along time. In fact, the last time a major storm made direct impact in this area was 1921. Even when Florida got battered in 2004-2005, the only storms we got were weakened storms that had traveled across the state.

Most likely, the storm today is just an anomaly, but it is hard to live here and not get obsessive.

Not a native, eh? It's chuckle-worthy when the transplants get all dismissive and flustered at the same time.

I grew up there on the Gulf Coast, hurricane season there in general is NBD. Landfalls are rarely worse than a tropical storm, when they occur. Most of the time, they stay offshore & make the surfers happy as hell & ride the coast up to the Bend before tracking east.

In the case of '04, however, downplaying it for the GC is a little dishonest at best. Shrugging them off as "weakened" completely ignores all the damage from the Big 3 that year. It wasn't just limited to where Charley, Frances and Jeanne made landfall, they had reach, ask me about 2 weeks of no power in the suckiest part of summer in the Bay area after Frances. Other areas there would say "Ask me about the feeder band flooding!"

Charley in particular is one to not shrug off. He made landfall only 50-60 miles south. We were SUPPOSED to get steamrolled up in Tampa, massive evacuation went on. Instead at the last possible second, he did what just one meteorologist said he was going to do -- hook a hard right into the Charlotte Harbor area. They didn't see it coming, no one did. They didn't even have time to prep down there, Punta Gorda was wiped off the map. That, right there, is why it's unwise to think you're in the clear just by being on the Gulf.

You're not.

Mother Nature doesn't spank that coastline too often, but when she does, it's nasty. She prefers backdoor-puckering reminders to remind everyone who's boss down there & who's not. Hurricane Georges in the late 90's gave us that reminder skirting up the coast, "Don't count your chicken before they hatch -- I'm right TF over here." Hurricane Elena in '85 reminded the area similarly.

If I can EVER get it to upload to my Photobucket (crap internet speed tonight) I have a slideshow-style .gif I made years ago showing all FL-landfall tracks as far back as records go. I made it to reassure friends who were getting all worked up over hurricane season (probably specifically an early bird storm) that it wasn't worth filling their pants over & that other areas were historically more likely to be up s# crick than mine.

Might be useful in making people worried on here feel more at ease.