North Korea-USA-China-Japan-Russia related scenarios

a reply to: Zaphod58

Lol I imagine a couple senior chiefs tossing a few lines in the water with old school baitcasting reels, swigging vodka and eating pickled herring waving at any US ships as they sail by...

I don't buy into the idea of some kind of large scale conventional or even wmd exchange.

My guess is we have covert / cyber assets already in place (as does china) and if kimmy doesn't play nice or tests another nuke there may be a very quick and sudden change of leadership in north Korea.

Maybe make it look like China is welcoming north Korea because dear leader fell ill (he is a tubby guy after all) and they basically maintain control of the north while working behind the scenes with us on matters of proliferation deterrance...

If kimmy were to launch anything conventional at the south all of those batteries would be demolished with counter battery fire pretty quickly which would limit the "demolishing of Seoul"...

That's my best guess based on theoretical, generalized conversations with some folks who have much more intimate knowledge of that theater of operations...

Trying to get this back to the question....it has wandered a bit...

So...even if fighting and damage is contained to Asia...the repercussions are global in nature. Many think of loss of life, but let's move beyond that.

Top 10 South Korea biggest companies
Top 10 Largest Japanese Companies

Most of those companies are HQ in Seoul and Tokyo (Panasonic for instance is in Osaka, not Tokyo).

Let's assume a nuke device of some sort hit near or in these cities.

So, I reckon all stock markets and many industries would go into a tailspin as the entire supply chain would be disrupted. The head would be cut off of many major corporations. (Like a good samurai head cut!) Just as earlier economic meltdown started with Lehman Brothers / Bear Stearns, etc... this would be many times "worse." Many tech suppliers are in those areas too. Many American jobs are provided by Japanese firms operating in the US or elsewhere in the world. Like Toyota having auto plants in USA, etc...(Toyota isn't HQ in Tokyo though, a few hours away....but Honda is, and Nissan is nearby in Yokohama)

Real estate and tourism would collapse, no? Many places in the world are dependent on tourism. Global fear would rise and people would stay closer to home. Japanese are major tourists around the world. Airlines would cut routes and jobs. Lots of West Coast real estate markets are super inflated because of tech bubble....even if XX American firm didn't lose anyone or anything directly, their supply chain would be decimated, thus they couldn't ship their products (Like Apple relying on memory chips....)

DRAM Market share by vendor

Samsung and Hynix account for 75% or 3/4 of memory - dram as of 2016. Nevermind supporting microchips.

Japan Quake endangers chips

www.steelads.com...

3 of the top 5 steel producers are South Korean or Japanese....

This is the kind of scenario planning I am thinking about....

Top 10 Steel companies - 2016

Nippon Steel, JFE Steel, and Hyundai Steel - 3 of the top 10 in 2016 would be decapitated.

Kobe Steel and POSCO - not in Seoul or Tokyo, would surely be affected....even though not based in the capital cities of Seoul or Tokyo.

What's made of steel? Look around....also resource hoarding / redirection....to build arms....of course!

a reply to: dontneedaname

What if trump is secretly for ing a coalition with russia and china.... he seems pretty cozy with putin... wants china involved in cleaning up korea

www.nationalreview.com...

this article suggests Norks might have more bite than thought

While the parade of missiles and missile canisters displayed over the weekend in Pyongyang may have included mockups of missiles that are not operational or empty canisters, the parade included what appeared to be two brand-new ICBMs and solid-fueled intermediate-range missiles that can be launched quickly and are easy to hide. The submarine-launched KN-11 missile also was displayed; it could pose a serious threat to Japan and South Korea.

nobody really knows just how much real hardware they have.
here's hoping some general in Pingpongyang coups us all out of this mess.