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Real Risk of Government Shutdown Won't Come Until Autumn, Goldman Says
The government probably isn't going to shut down next week, but all bets are off for October, warns Goldman Sachs . "There is a risk of a partial federal shutdown, but we believe the risk is fairly low next week, rising slightly if the debate is pushed into May, and rising further still later this year," Phillips said. "There is a risk of a partial federal shutdown, but we believe the risk is fairly low next week, rising slightly if the debate is pushed into May, and rising further still later this year," Phillips said.
The most obvious path forward, assuming Republicans and at least some Democrats can come together on a spending bill, is for a continuing resolution to be pushed through both houses of Congress by Thursday of next week. If they're not, the government will begin a partial shutdown on Friday -- President Trump's 100th day in office.
Goldman gives a government shutdown on April 29 a one-in-four chance of happening, because if there isn't an agreement in place at that time, Congress will pass a "clean" short-term extension that avoids controversial issues. Politico reported on Wednesday that lawmakers are likely to pass a one-week stopgap funding bill next week to kick the can down the road a little longer.
If that happens and the debate on government funding is pushed off to May, the probability of a shutdown is somewhat higher, about one-in-three.