a reply to: xpert11
I tend to agree that things can never return to the status quote, but in many ways that is
the status quote in the Middle East.
The history goes back literally to Biblical times. Abraham was promised an heir by God at an advanced age, and when the miracle didn't occur in her
time frame, his wife Sarah convinced Abraham to have a child with his hand maiden Hagar. He did: Ismael. But then Sarah conceived Isaac, fulfilling
the promise. Isaac and Ismael were raised as brothers, but jealousy caused Sarah to finally demand Abraham expel Hagar and Ismael from his tribe.
Isaac would beget a line of descendents we today call the Hebrews. Ismael would beget the Arabic peoples. The anger from that beginning still runs
The Hebrews would settle in a fertile area, while the Arabic people learned to survive as nomads. Their lifestyle prohibited the development of
Western-like culture; thievery was often necessary to survival, so the concept of thief as an actual occupation became acceptable. One was expected to
be strong enough to survive, and was only worthy of the goods he could protect from thieves. This only changed in the early 1900s when other countries
found oil under the sand.
Since then, the various Arabic countries have struggled to evolve past their barbaric (to us) past. During WWII, they got to see up close and personal
the various countries. While both the British and the Soviets invaded Iran, the British instituted Mohammed Reza Shah, the brutal dictator I earlier
mentioned. After the war, the British were seen as conquering and deposing the Palestinians to form the new country of Israel, replacing the remaining
Hebrews with the Jewish people who now had white skin and acted like the British.
Given the choice, Iran would rather ally with Russia, especially since Russia aided them by buying their oil after the Iranian Hostage Crisis. That
alliance is strong, as Iran considers friendship very important like most Arabic countries.
Syria's relationship with Iran is strong as well. Being the only primarily Sunni nation in the Middle East, Iran has always fought with the other
Arabic countries. Syria does not persecute Sunnis despite being technically a Shiite nation. The Syria-Russia relationship is based on the mutual ties
with Iran, and of course the strategic location of Syria.
There us only one way to stop this dynamic, and I simply do not see it happening. That is for us assist with the pipeline construction and Russia
agree to continue the dollar peg, at least until we can get debt under control. Assad, in the grand scheme of things, would become irrelevant, Iran
would no longer be considered a threat, and all countries could prosper. But we have a lot of distrust built up over decades of scandalous activity,
and it will be hard now to gain Russia's trust.