Of Interest to Smart Members

This article is about convictions, cognitive dissonance and motivated reasoning. Worth a quick scan if not a read.

This Article Won’t Change Your Mind

The facts on why facts alone can’t fight false beliefs

...“A man with a conviction is a hard man to change,” Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schacter wrote in When Prophecy Fails, their 1957 book about this study. “Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point … Suppose that he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that his belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before.”

This doubling down in the face of conflicting evidence is a way of reducing the discomfort of dissonance, and is part of a set of behaviors known in the psychology literature as “motivated reasoning.” Motivated reasoning is how people convince themselves or remain convinced of what they want to believe—they seek out agreeable information and learn it more easily; and they avoid, ignore, devalue, forget, or argue against information that contradicts their beliefs.

It's how I know the earth is flat.

a reply to: soficrow

Suppose that he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that his belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before.”

Thats called denial.

I see your truth and raise you my agenda.

a reply to: soficrow

Doesn't sound like a man with convictions, he sounds like a liberal/conservative self demigod.

a reply to: soficrow

Makes one wonder about their own beliefs.
I imagine we are all guilty of this at times.
Of course not myself lol.
But so many others....
Tee hee

Smart members? Would be nice If you jump down off that high horse and explain it to the dumb members..

That's why I always remain unbiased.

But even then, it is possible to be wrong if there is some piece of information missing.

Not everyone that is wrong suffers from cognitive dissonance, and not all that do are wrong.

"If you want to meet a man with convictions, go to a jail."
-DBCowboy

originally posted by: DBCowboy
"If you want to meet a man with convictions, go to a jail."
-DBCowboy

Man, I hope your day job is stand-up comedy. If not, you're missing your calling.

This Article Won’t Change Your Mind

Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point … Suppose that he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that his belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before.

I see this a lot with Trump supporters. I used to be an Obama supporter but I soon realized all his talk about making changes was full of it. He turned out to be just like any other politicians out there.

Hard to find anyone to support nowadays, someone with real convictions.

originally posted by: Mictain
This Article Won’t Change Your Mind

Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point … Suppose that he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that his belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before.

I see this a lot with Trump supporters. I used to be an Obama supporter but I soon realized all his talk about making changes was full of it. He turned out to be just like any other politicians out there.

Hard to find anyone to support nowadays, someone with real convictions.

I see it a lot with Obama supporters, Trump supporters, Hilary supporters, Bush, etc. That's kind of the point.

a reply to: Misterlondon

I think the smartest members are those that realize that they know less than they think they know.

Well, of course.

A fact is a fact much like a statistic doesn't lie because numbers can't. However, if you know what you are doing, you can make that simple statistic say whatever you need it too. And if you know what you are doing, you can arrange to have the numbers say what you need.

For example, if you want to convince everyone that brand X is the best, you look for people who are likely to use it when you do your survey and you over sample them. If you correctly identified the people who use that brand, you should get a very complimentary sample ... say 4 out of 5 recommend it. Then whether or not the general population actually use it or like it, you create the impression that they do and go with it. You have the methodology and with the sample you used, your numbers are valid. You aren't lying. It's a fact, just a heavily skewed one.

There is also the matter that a lot of people take facts and find ways to use them to support their preferred conclusion via cherry picking and then ignore facts that don't work.

A lot of sciences, particularly in the so-called soft sciences, are falling prey to some of these problems. There is an issue with reproducibility in actual peer reviewed and published studies. I would dig up papers on it, but it's a common enough issue that it's an easy Google. Basically, particularly when we are talking about the psychology of group A v. group B studies, this is the case -- they can't be reproduced to get the same result, so they're very suspect in the conclusions they draw.

originally posted by: Rosinitiate



I see it a lot with Obama supporters, Trump supporters, Hilary supporters, Bush, etc. That's kind of the point.

I agree with you on that. I just brought up Trump and his supporters because they are the ones who came to mind right away. They are the more recent posters, I have seen lately on ATS praising and almost worshiping him.

Ideology can blind a person to facts.

originally posted by: snowspirit
a reply to: Misterlondon

I think the smartest members are those that realize that they know less than they think they know.

That's an interesting statement. Carried to its conclusion, your logic means someone has to realize that something they know is wrong, but how can it be wrong if it is known? Therefore which thing is wrong? Everything is up for sale at this point.

Then one must eventually conclude that your statement may be right or it may be wrong...

And how could one ever tell?

That's it. I'm drinking soon. Too many voices. I think I know that! Or do I?

a reply to: soficrow


Ummm...how did you know I had a smart...member...

I mean...he does stand up and salute from time to time...

Sigh...guess I will have to put tape on my...appliances...


YouSir

originally posted by: snowspirit
a reply to: Misterlondon

I think the smartest members are those that realize that they know less than they think they know.

I must be a FrICKIN genius then!!

Thanks

a reply to: TarzanBeta

I drove you to drink, my job is done 😊

Basically, there's still stuff that's completely uncertain, minds change, science makes new discoveries....
A smart mind should be willing to look at new discoveries, other paradigms, keep questioning...always room for learning.
I refuse to go into the known knowns, the unknown knowns....

I'm not known for being able to make others understand my logic. You did a good job of that 🍻

a reply to: snowspirit

Or did I?

You're welcome.

a reply to: soficrow

I read the never-ending article and enjoyed it very much, thank you.