Shock new Euro poll (this time it's an ICM poll, not an easily dismissed EU one!)

A surprising new ICM poll has just been published in the Evening Standard (a London newspaper from the 'Associated newsmedia Co.', same parent Co. as the Daily Mail) showing the issue of the new EU constitution vote is far from settled as some have claimed for so long -

The referendum battle on whether Britain should sign up to the new European Union constitution is wide open, a surprising new poll suggests.

Some 39% of those surveyed for the Sunday Telegraph indicated they would vote Yes in the referendum, just two points behind the 41% who said they would vote No.

www.thisislondon.co.uk...

here's the actual YouGov poll, which was conducted online between 26th and 28th January 2005.

i can't find the ICM poll... went to their website and checked the recent polls, but it wasn't there

the article mentions that the ICM poll was also conducted for the Telegraph, alas the Sunday one. obviously Sunday readers are of differing opinion to the daily readers!

all i can see from this is that perhaps the deviant art of psychology within the two different questions has more weight on a persons answer than their opinion itself!


[edit on 30/1/05 by BLUELol]

I have a link to the article in the Sunday Telegraph but it talks about the poll rather than giving it in full (maybe their link is just down)

www.telegraph.co.uk.../news/2005/01/27/neu27.xml

As usual with EU polling take note of the 'don't know' figure, the key to the yes vote when the time comes, IMO.

[edit on 30-1-2005 by sminkeypinkey]

As I said several times, I see as a clear tendency the UK following a different way than the other EU´s members. Despite is not an overal behavior, it is not a strange thing when I discuss the issue with a Brit he starts to insult me or so. Far from offending me, this kind of behavior makes me think about why so many people in the UK is furious agaisnt the EU.

As I see each day the continental Europe more united, I also see the UK more separated. It definetely seems that the Brit people have not the EU in their agenda. This is OK for me, since the UK has smply not participated in the laters great issues of the EU.

As a funny comment, I thought more about the issue when last weekend my cousin Alex (he is 13) was preparing some redaction for the school about the EU. He asked me “ is Britain in the EU?”. I told him “yes” but I said it not very convinced, so he thought that I was making fun of him.

The question is not wheter the Brit people would vote yes or not. The question is what would suppose a Brit “NO” for the rest of the EU and the UK itself?

I mean in the political sense, because sincerely I think that it would be nothing specially relevant for our daily life.

A lot of people have spent a lot of time trying to convince people that 'the people of Britain' are, somehow, innately and massively anti-EU.

I think many polls have shown that while 'the people of Britain' have 'concerns' about the EU they are pretty well aware that they have really only heard a pretty one-sided anti-EU story so far.

Who wouldn't have 'concerns' if every piece of the dumb propaganda that has been held up to people since 1989 (Thatcher's 'vote tory or you'll wake up to a diet of Brussels' euro election campaign' the start of the euro-hate campaign in the UK)?

The British people aren't daft, they know there is more to this than the sloganising they have heard so far, my bet is that when the campaign starts in earnest and people begin to hear the other side (and the stupid nonsense challenged.......'bent' bananas anyone?) the result will be a substantial 'yes'.

There is a very great difference between what a large section of the (right-wing) British press would love everyone believe and the actual reality (as this poll itself proves).

[edit on 8-2-2005 by sminkeypinkey]

Yes, I understand your point, but lets suppose for a while that finally the NO wins in the UK. ¿What would happen then?
Please, dont interprete my question as a malicious one. Obviously the Brit people will not starve, and Germany is not going to try the invasion of the UK again, but what do you think would happen if the UK says NO?

Everybody in the EU see too clearly that every country will say YES to the European Constitution. But what if someone says NO?
By the way, despite I am pretty sure that in Spain the YES will win in our referendum, as I am writting this post I am watching on TV Gaspar Llamazares (leader of IU, the third political force in Spain) asking and claiming the people to vote NO. That was pretty funny. xD

I suppose it's a possibility that the UK could still say 'no' but I really do not think it is going to happen. Not after a proper campaign taking the real issues to the people in Britain.

There will, of course, be a 'rump' that will never be convinced of that I am sure (I reckon approx one third, 30% or so of the vote, ie the current tory vote and maybe a little bit more).

But, ok, if anyone says no then it's back to the drawing board, isn't it?

As I understand it any country voting no halts the entire process.
If it was to be Britain alone that said no then I would not be surprised if the EU carried on, after some debate, and just let Britain sit on the sidelines as long as she wanted.
2-speed Europe with the UK in the slow-lane alone.......and suffering a lowering of our standard of living, damage to our manufacturing and service industries as investors and customers take the British 'no' as a prelude to further British disengagement from the EU.
Great.

But I genuinely do not think that is likely.

The British people are no more 'naturally' inclined to be hostile to the EU than anyone else is, in other words some will be willfully incorrigible but most perfectly reasonable once their questions and concerns are addressed and discussed and explained in an adult and sensible manner.

[edit on 8-2-2005 by sminkeypinkey]

Pelayo I think you are simplifying things rather too much, the result in Spain was likely to be a resounding yes, however this is not true of all the continental EU members. Lets not forget Denmark rejected the Maastrict treaty, even the support is waning in France (although it is highly probable they will vote yes, and they only approved the Maastrict Treaty of a margin of about 2%), Ireland (not a continental I know) is by no-means a foregone conclusion. According to Eurobarometer Sweden has the lowest level of popular support for the Treaty (although they are not being allowed a referendum on the matter). Your repeated comments about a divergence of the UK and Continental Europeans is simply not true (and I may say probably due to some predjudice on your part), if by that you mean we do not follow the rule of the French that is because we do not, and it would be unwise for us to do soas they cannot even follow their own rules, we do not agree, quite justly, in an EU with one set of rules for some nations, and another set of rules for the others (of course with this I am making a direct statement with regards to the Growth and Stability Pact, which if I remember correctly was a condition that the Germans and French insisted upon). You say we do not participate fully in the EU, this also is false, we believe more strongly in the principles of the EU than some of the founding members, we allow the "New" countries freedom to work here, they do not etc. Your supposition is for the most part false.

Personally when the referendum comes I am going to vote yes and I know of only one person in all my acquaintences who said he is going to definately vote no (but then he is a hardcore Tory).

[edit on 1-3-2005 by jimmyr]

I would hope the UK would vote no, unless the 'issues' were addressed. A Franco-German powerase in not in the UK's interest imho.......

But I am across the pond so I don't really know the details....

Originally posted by edsinger
I would hope the UK would vote no, unless the 'issues' were addressed. A Franco-German powerase in not in the UK's interest imho.......

But I am across the pond so I don't really know the details....

I think the American perception of the EU is distorted, power in the EU is not soley all based on a Franco-German alliance, it will never be this, the other Nation States in the Union would never allow this to happen. I think another incorrect perception is that this "Constitutional Treaty" is seen as the equivalent to the US Constitution and what is happening in the EU is similar to the struggles btween the sovereign rights of the Member states of the US and the federal government, it is like comparing apples and oranges, there is a world of difference between the situations and the national identities of the various Nation States in the EU are very strong and established, whereas one could not say the same thing when the US was a relatively new country. Who says when describing their nationality for example "I'm an Iowian". One of the objectives of the EU is maintain this cultural diversity. I think the main false perception in the US is that the EU wants to become "another US", this is simply not true, sure in some Countries in the Union may like the sound of it but I think the majority do not want that at all.

There is no Franco-German power base, the main player in the EU is......the EU ....shocking or what.

However I can see the people of Britain rejected the vote on the constituation most people will vote against the Constitution simply because it is the EU Constitution, others will vote against because they don't like the direction that the EU is taking.

Pre-referedum polls mean nothing the only poll that counts is the referendum itself

Originally posted by UK Wizard
There is no Franco-German power base, the main player in the EU is......the EU

- Quite.....and the 'EU' powerbase is the national governments themselves.

I'd love to hear how this imagined Franco-German axis is meant to function in an EU of 25.....let alone any examples of it at work.

However I can see the people of Britain rejected the vote on the constituation most people will vote against the Constitution simply because it is the EU Constitution, others will vote against because they don't like the direction that the EU is taking.

- We shall see.
I would not be so sure if I were you.
People in the UK keep saying that they are sure they have only heard, for years, one side of the story so far (the 'anti' side).

Pre-referedum polls mean nothing the only poll that counts is the referendum itself

- Well this is, of course, true.

However it makes a lovely change to be able to point to such very tight margins when we have had years of the anti-EU side in the UK loudly claiming that polls that supported their position were utterly conclusive of how Britons thought on the matter.

Clearly the British public are maybe not so decided on the matter as has been previously claimed.

Roll on the referendum.
Spain has already said 'yes', France has announced a referendum on this 'constitution' (when the 'no' campaign has been claiming for months that they wouldn't dare).
With a decent campaign I think it is perfectly winnable for the 'yes' group(s).

Originally posted by sminkeypinkey
Roll on the referendum.
Spain has already said 'yes', France has announced a referendum on this 'constitution' (when the 'no' campaign has been claiming for months that they wouldn't dare).
With a decent campaign I think it is perfectly winnable for the 'yes' group(s).

Annnnnddddddd......it wasn't! So what is next for the EU. I think it will eventually happen and that this is a setback, but not the end.

Originally posted by Imperium Americana
Annnnnddddddd......it wasn't!

- Ah well, much as I wish I could my 'seeing into the future' powers are nothing beyond that of all other mere mortals!

So what is next for the EU.

- A period of slower progress whilst the national govs (cos this isn't just about the EU) and the EU itself reconnect with the people, I reckon.

I think it will eventually happen and that this is a setback, but not the end.

- I agree.
It will happen is stages IMO.

There were some very sensible and much needed parts to that so-called 'constitution' and I think they will be brought in as separate pieces.
So parts will undoubtedly be discarded.

Maybe it'll all work out even better in the end.

We shall see.