It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

Apple joins Amazon, Facebook, Google, IBM and Microsoft in AI initiative

page: 2
11
<< 1    3 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 09:13 AM
link   

originally posted by: Riffrafter
a reply to: soficrow

...As much of the commercial development of AI is being done by these companies, it will have an impact on AI development and deployment.

But there is an enormous amount of research, development and deployment of AI being done behind the scenes to advance our militaries and support our national security efforts.

The work being done in that arena is far beyond what is being done commercially both in terms of technology (HW and SW) and scope of effort. In other words there are specialized AI systems that have a very narrow scope/domain but there are also AI that were designed, built and currently function with a much broader "view".

...people would be very surprised and amazed at the capabilities of those broader view systems.




Yes. S&


AceWombat04 nicely synopsizes the JASON report Perspectives on Research in Artificial Intelligence and Artificial General Intelligence Relevant to DoD - marketing the meme that we only need to worry about AGI, which is not a reality and won't be for a good long time.

Unfortunately for us, the JASON report is based on unclassified research. So as you say, "there are also AI that were designed, built and currently function with a much broader "view"," or at least, conceivably could be. We don't know. We only know there is a whole lot more going on than got into that report.

Aside from the fact there is much going on that we don't know about, 3 concerns jump immediately to mind.

1. As is, AI is positioned to totally reconfigure our world.



Most people in the AI community subscribe to the view that it does not really matter if machines are exactly replicating what human beings can do, as long as we do things that are intelligent and of value. For example, we have software that can fly an aircraft—very differently from how a human being would do it but it is doing it nevertheless.



2. As loam warned, the real problem is AI making decisions for humans. Who cares what level of AI that might be, AGI or not? For example:



….the Samsung SGR-A1 sentry gun installed on the South Korean border. The SGR-A1 is capable of asking humans for a password and shooting them with either lethal or non-lethal rounds if it doesn’t hear the correct answer.

In the next paragraph the report says that while this demonstrates a certain amount of “autonomy,” it’s not autonomy as it maps to the human experience (the “freedom of will or action”), but the “prosaic ability” to act in accordance with a pre-defined set of complex rules. To a person standing in front a machine gun that will kill them if it can’t understand what they’re saying, the difference seems trivial. The important thing is not the exact definition of autonomy, but the fact that responsibility has been transferred from human to machine.



3. In our world, the bulk of humanity is seen as consumers and support staff. Shortly, neither function will be required. As the Georgia Guidestones advised, the economy (and humanity) can function quite well with a total human population of 500 million. ...So what's the plan for the other 7 billion people?



Explaining AI to the public itself is a challenge.

...the fear that certain types of jobs will vanish because AI (software bots and machines) will do it more efficiently is genuine. Policy makers should prepare themselves for this, and proactively retrain and reskill the people who will be affected to help them cope better with the situation.




...Maybe 500 million can benefit from retraining and reskilling - but again, what about the other 7 billion?


A job for specialized AI? ...We already know GAI is not required for this level of function.















edit on 31/1/17 by soficrow because: format




posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 09:20 AM
link   
You know, on one hand I want a fancy robot to tidy the house.

On the other hand I don't want to be killed by Googles crazed sentient military androids that have broken their programming and gone rogue.

Maybe the AI robots will see the people who made them, discover depression and turn themselves off.



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 09:45 AM
link   

originally posted by: soficrow
Last I heard, developers were looking at neural networks for computers. Also wondering about applications for cerebral organoids - maybe leading more directly to some kind of bio-type hybrid?

But you tell me. Sounds like you have a good background.


Basically, the techniques being used on commercial AI's (genetic algorithms, neural networks, etc) were developed in the 60's and 70's, then abandoned because they're simply too computationally heavy. Processors have caught up these days so those techniques are finally being used but they're far from efficient, and even further from being able to create what most people consider strong AI. As long as these techniques are what's used there's nothing to worry about.

Someone might create something better, the government has been working on that, but even that is likely to have some serious limitations.



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 09:54 AM
link   



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 10:30 AM
link   
a reply to: soficrow

I'm not worried about AI displacing workers, all that ultimately means is that we shift to a shorter work week.



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 10:42 AM
link   

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: AceWombat04

RE:



...a set of rules that govern 1) how we keep AI isolated in different sectors of the global economy, rather than over time morphing into this pervasive thing that is integrated into every facet of life...



Given the net and cloud, is that even possible at this point?




Yes. Strong AI can be "air-gapped" which essentially means the system has no access to the internet or anything other than the local network on which it resides that is also air-gapped.

Does that make sense?



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 10:48 AM
link   
a reply to: Aazadan




Someone might create something better, the government has been working on that, but even that is likely to have some serious limitations.


You might be pleasantly surprised. Or unpleasantly surprised. But *much* work has been and continues to be done in this field behind the scenes.

That's not an opinion - that's a fact.

As to when or if these developments will see the public light of day, that's a decision above my pay grade. But my sense is that it will start to "dribble" out in the not so distant future.



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 12:33 PM
link   
a reply to: Riffrafter

We'll see. It's not that I disbelieve you, but rather that it just doesn't matter much until it's out there. I'm rather skeptical of current AI. I'm far from a professional with it, but I have taken a few classes on the subject (one from my university, one from Berkeley, and one from Google) and the whole field has been rather disappointing to me. The best description I have for current AI is that it's an optimized brute force approach. I'm not denying that it's useful, only that it's actually intelligent. What Hollywood exposes to people as AI and the reality of the field are very different things, modern AI is utterly incapable of the problems people like Elon Musk talk about, it's purely a philosophical exercise.

I hope you're right and that there's better techniques being developed. Computer Science is a rather young field so breakthroughs can definitely happen.

Personally, I would love to build a better AI.
edit on 31-1-2017 by Aazadan because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 01:07 PM
link   

originally posted by: Aazadan
a reply to: soficrow

I'm not worried about AI displacing workers, all that ultimately means is that we shift to a shorter work week.


Erm, no. The (relatively) few positions that do not become obsolete will require all-new skill sets. Even a quick review reveals that virtually all the jobs involve the AI-human interface, and exist to facilitate that interface.



Two new and emerging job types stand out… The first is the role of data analyst, which companies expect will help them make sense and derive insights from the torrent of data generated by technological disruptions. The second is the role of specialized sales representative, as practically every industry will need to become more skilled in commercializing and explaining their new offerings to unfamiliar businesses, government clients or consumers. A new type of senior manager will also be in demand – one who can successfully steer companies through the upcoming change and disruption.

all of us will need to take much greater responsibility for our own talent development by embracing lifelong learning.




The accelerating pace of technological, demographic and socio-economic disruption is transforming industries and business models, changing the skills that employers need and shortening the shelf-life of employees’ existing skill sets in the process.

On average, by 2020, more than a third of the desired core skill sets of most occupations will be comprised of skills that are not yet considered crucial to the job today… Overall, social skills—such as persuasion, emotional intelligence and teaching others—will be in higher demand across industries than narrow technical skills, such as programming or equipment operation and control. In essence, technical skills will need to be supplemented with strong social and collaboration skills.

…disruptive changes will have a significant impact on skills requirements in all job families and …are creating a range of opportunities and challenges in all industries, not just narrowly related to ‘hard knowledge’, technical skills and technology. In order to manage these trends successfully, there is a need for potentially reskilling and upskilling talent from varied academic backgrounds in all industries




posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 01:28 PM
link   

originally posted by: soficrow
Erm, no. The (relatively) few positions that do not become obsolete will require all-new skill sets. Even a quick review reveals that virtually all the jobs involve the AI-human interface, and exist to facilitate that interface.


Skill sets are irrelevant to the discussion of the number of hours worked. Some people may need to be retrained but it still results in less work overall. That's the point of automation, as the number of hours worked declines, the length of the average work week also declines.



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 03:09 PM
link   
Why the obsession with AI?

Prob $

Does not bode well for humans.



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 03:10 PM
link   

originally posted by: Aazadan

originally posted by: soficrow
Erm, no. The (relatively) few positions that do not become obsolete will require all-new skill sets. Even a quick review reveals that virtually all the jobs involve the AI-human interface, and exist to facilitate that interface.


Skill sets are irrelevant to the discussion of the number of hours worked.


Huh?

No jobs = no number of hours worked.



[shakes head]



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 06:19 PM
link   

originally posted by: soficrow
Huh?

No jobs = no number of hours worked.



[shakes head]


And that's a bad thing? The goal is to automate all work.



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 06:33 PM
link   
reply to: Aazadan

RE:
No jobs = no number of hours worked.





And that's a bad thing? The goal is to automate all work.



What do you plan to do with the 7 billion people who have no work and consequently, no income?

Are you saying you think the Universal Basic Income will fly globally?? That AI is not a "problem" because we don't yet have GAI? Not sure what your main points are.






edit on 31/1/17 by soficrow because: clarity



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 06:37 PM
link   
This thread just makes me wish I'd done software development at university instead of history. Bah.



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 06:46 PM
link   

originally posted by: Ohanka
This thread just makes me wish I'd done software development at university instead of history. Bah.


Don't fret - no guarantees there either. The nerds think they’re sailing - but they’re not. Thing is, virtually all jobs will focus on the AI-human interface, and exist to facilitate that interface (eg., ‘sell’ it and/or translate AI to other people).




...Overall, [url=https://reports.weforum.org/future-of-jobs-2016/skills-stability/]social skills—such as persuasion, emotional intelligence and teaching others—will be in higher demand across industries than narrow technical skills, such as programming or equipment operation and control. In essence, technical skills will need to be supplemented with strong social and collaboration skills.




posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 07:07 PM
link   

originally posted by: soficrow
What do you plan to do with the 7 billion people who have no work and consequently, no income?


People will find things to do, like have more time to enjoy themselves.



Are you saying you think the Universal Basic Income will fly globally?? That AI is not a "problem" because we don't yet have GAI? Not sure what your main points are.


I'm pretty sure a UBI is an inevitability, but a global UBI is still hundreds of years off. Automation even with a GAI will happen in several steps incrementally over decades. As jobs get automated away, new jobs will pop up (though not as many as before), until those also get automated away, and so on until they're all gone.



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 07:12 PM
link   

originally posted by: Ohanka
This thread just makes me wish I'd done software development at university instead of history. Bah.


I have a weekly lunch with a friend of mine, he's a Political Science/History dual major. We discussed this very topic this week since I'm in software. He was jealous over what I'll probably end up making as a wage in the next few years and at some of the types of problems I get to tackle.

At the same time though, it's not like history isn't a cool subject either. I love history personally (in addition to many other subjects), it definitely doesn't pay as well but it's still interesting work. At the end of the day my feeling on it is that as long as you're being paid enough to live comfortably and retire on you should do what you find interesting. It's a much easier life if you find your work to be fun and engaging rather than something you're just doing for the paycheck.

Of course, if you don't like history... it probably wouldn't be much fun.



posted on Jan, 31 2017 @ 10:28 PM
link   

originally posted by: Aazadan


RE: What do you plan to do with the 7 billion people who have no work and consequently, no income?



People will find things to do, like have more time to enjoy themselves.


You're kidding right? You expect 7 Billion homeless people with no work, no money, no food and no water to enjoy themselves?

Are you a special kind of stupid or just trolling for good one-liners to rip off for some project?





I'm pretty sure a UBI is an inevitability, but a global UBI is still hundreds of years off.



See questions above re homeless. I take it you're counting on natural barriers to protect your ass ...ets. Not terribly comprehensive.




Automation even with a GAI will happen in several steps incrementally over decades. As jobs get automated away, new jobs will pop up (though not as many as before), until those also get automated away, and so on until they're all gone.


You mean automation even with specialized AI, not GAI, right? And yes, it's already happening. But I doubt the process will be incremental over decades - there will be leaps. Radical ones. Starting in 2020.









edit on 31/1/17 by soficrow because: format

edit on 31/1/17 by soficrow because: format



posted on Feb, 1 2017 @ 10:09 AM
link   

originally posted by: soficrow
You're kidding right? You expect 7 Billion homeless people with no work, no money, no food and no water to enjoy themselves?


Why would they be homeless? A society run by AI is essentially a post scarcity economy. There's no need for money in such a system, and by definition the AI would have built people homes, grows their food, and supplys water.



See questions above re homeless. I take it you're counting on natural barriers to protect your ass ...ets. Not terribly comprehensive.


Not at all. In a world where all labor is done by machines, there's no such thing as assets because there's no revenue generation.



You mean automation even with specialized AI, not GAI, right? And yes, it's already happening. But I doubt the process will be incremental over decades - there will be leaps. Radical ones. Starting in 2020.


What's so special about 2020? And no, not with specialized AI's, they'll never be able to eliminate all labor. They can reduce the amount of work that needs to be done to supply our needs and increase productivity, but they'll never eliminate everything.



new topics

top topics



 
11
<< 1    3 >>

log in

join