Disruptive Change - Humans Need Not Apply.

originally posted by: soficrow

“Without proper governance and re-skilling of workers, technology will eliminate jobs faster than it creates them,” …

..

It's much more ominous than just replacing workers. AI technologies coupled with robots making themselves better exponentially is something we all need to be aware of.

If people really knew how far advanced AI technology is currently they would be shocked, but it could be a change for the better.

Maybe the great pyramid scheme we live in now will implode due to robots doing everything for us. Not sure what is going to happen, but you can bet that in 10 years everything in our current lifestyle, will be obsolete.

originally posted by: Tardacus

when automation is doing most of the jobs we won`t need to work anymore and we won`t need money because robots don`t need to be paid. Let the robots make everything and people can get everything they want for free.
of course the 1% won`t like the idea of getting rid of money but automation makes it inevitable.

You don't think the 1% will want to hang on to their cash and keep the economy going with maybe only 10% of the population?

[10% of 7.5 billion is still what? 75 million? Really tired. Honestly can't think!]

...Why do you think getting rid of money is inevitable?

a reply to: dawnstar

You describe a utopia I would love to see materialize - and offer a sound rationale for going there. Unfortunately, as you say, "the selfish leaders can just plan to eliminate the majority of the population and enjoy this new age without us... "

I honestly do not think they'll take us along with them - but I do think we can create a non-mainstream society and economy, maybe even with housebots and cooks.

originally posted by: Tranceopticalinclined
The funny part of all this is that A.I. will actually destroy economics as they will be able to manipulate it much faster and easier than even the most corrupted Leman brother associate.

Steven Hawking saw that much, check it. A.I. could start the future of Stock Market Wars

I would wager everything I have on what you just said here.

When AI makes itself known to the world, it will already be too late. There are people right now that are absolutely obsessed with AI technology, and think of nothing else than making it work.

I have seen AI programmers shut everyone out of their lives, and become lead a completely reclusive life, so they can focus on development of AI.

How we lead our lives currently will not even be close to what will transpire of the the next 10 years.

a reply to: loam

originally posted by: loam
Even more concerning is not just when the robots do all of the work, but rather when they make all of the decisions.

GREAT THREAD, SOFICROW.

WHOA! Where did you come from big guy! Wow. Now I have to dig up one of your podcasts just to listen to your intro.

Great to hear from you. And thanks.

a reply to: soficrow

all I want is a robot that will do my dishes!! my son has finished his associate's degree in electrical engineering and is now going for one in robotics.. I keep bugging him to make me one...
maybe someday!!

originally posted by: Tranceopticalinclined
The funny part of all this is that A.I. will actually destroy economics as they will be able to manipulate it much faster and easier than even the most corrupted Leman brother associate.

Steven Hawking saw that much, check it. A.I. could start the future of Stock Market Wars

Humans, especially those hyper focused and unable to really relate with humanity as a whole fail to see the ying AND THE YANG of events and variables at that.

The future will need many more RICH people in it if there is even to be a future. Because the bottlenecking of resources and profit will only fuel self destruction of our society.

With that said, a universal income is more likely to happen before that dystopian future of the fenced in haves defending from the rebel have nots.

Solely because it will be more efficient to give us money than it would be to allow us all that creative downtime to plot how to take from them in the 1st place.

You're posts are well-informed, thoughtful and delightful too! Wish I could speak directly to your points but I can't - too tired. Spent too long writing the OP, posted it late, now must sleep.

Thanks for being here , and please keep posting! Like, take over now?

originally posted by: dawnstar
a reply to: soficrow

all I want is a robot that will do my dishes!! my son has finished his associate's degree in electrical engineering and is now going for one in robotics.. I keep bugging him to make me one...
maybe someday!!

When AI get's into full swing robots will be building robots, they are already much more efficient than humans in automotive plants and can do jobs faster than humans can, with no breaks.

How do I know this?

I was in design/build, program and install for paint shops in the Auto industry. Humans used to do all the painting before, all the welding and many of the assembly work, but now we'll find robots there.

a reply to: soficrow

the rich and powerful have their underground bunkers that they plan on running into and hiding from the great catastrophe that they will probably create thinking that the rest of us will be killed by radiation poisoning or something. while they will be underground protected from the polluted atmosphere for generations enjoying their state of the art way of life, those that survive above them will become more and more accustomed to the environment from generation to generation through mutation.. sooner or later they will have to come out of the hole they ran and hid in.. and find themselves the least fit creatures to survive on this earth...
and.. the meek shall inherit the earth!

a reply to: soficrow


You called it like its going to be, the problem comes when the production has no demand, because the money is not their to buy the goods they produce. A human needs are quite simple, and sustainable, he can grow crops and build a house out of practically anything . The problem is that the present laws administered by the mainly local shires, require money to carry them out , when this money stops then a second economy can get going.

originally posted by: 3daysgone
a reply to: soficrow

What, exactly?

That this future is going to happen by 2020?

I think the WEF called it right - massive unemployment, business bankruptcies, economic breakdown for the masses and quite likely, nation states too.

January 2016: The Future of Jobs

The Fourth Industrial Revolution, which includes developments in previously disjointed fields such as artificial intelligence and machine-learning, robotics, nanotechnology, 3-D printing, and genetics and biotechnology, will cause widespread disruption not only to business models but also to labour markets over the next five years, with enormous change predicted in the skill sets needed to thrive in the new landscape.

The rest of the AI revolution will take more time.

a reply to: Realtruth

I think much sooner than that even, I know some of those programmers as well and I think some of the reasoning behind at least some programmers doing this is very noble, since the few I know want to make sure a positive A.I. is created, one that see's mankind for what it is, an infant species that means well and wants to grow up and be awesome and caring but needs positive role models and structure within boundaries.

As opposed to the A.I. some corporations would love to have, that does nothing more than do what you ask of it, as efficiently and cost effective as possible.

If we do create an alternate reality via each decision that is made, then the next few decades will of created the majority of those realities due to the seriously amount of ways we could take our current situation.

And it's not always the big companies you worry about, it's the garage tinkerer that knows just enough to be dangerous that scares the living daylights outta me.

a reply to: soficrow

Thank you for that, made me blush lol

Honestly though, you deserve the credit, you put in that massive amount of effort that thwarts my very thought at creating threads, it makes me instantly lazy. Much easier to throw my 2 cents at, but am glad you enjoy them. means alot as I do try to think of us all when replying. We're all in this together. Keeping the threads of life alive!

Always and Soon™

a reply to: Realtruth
a reply to: Tranceopticalinclined


Thank you both. Great stuff! ...Despite the obvious and real destructive potential of AI, I think most people just can't wrap their heads around it. At all. It feels like sci-fi to them, doesn't touch them where they live.

That's why I want to look at the first steps - what happens before the AI takeover. People don't know it, but their lives are about to get turned upside down, inside out, around and sent through the rabbit hole.

I'm hoping this thread can help prepare at least a few.

Kind of depressing but true. The worst part is that not all the people will be able to do those highly technical jobs. That means poor pawns and those with jobs. Since there will be so many people wanting to work, the wages on those jobs will drop and people will work them for little pay. No middle class at all. Pawns and elite and soldiers to enforce peace, those may even be automated.

Most people cannot see that automation is not really good, not unless we get rid of two thirds the worlds population, which may be happening when this transition gets completed. All they have to do is make our immune system dependent on some medicines to work and then remove the medicine.

originally posted by: anonentity
a reply to: soficrow


You called it like its going to be, the problem comes when the production has no demand, because the money is not their to buy the goods they produce.

The gov will provide the people with the money to buy the goods the robots produce.

The only reason you need money, is to ensure the efficient allocation of resources to those that need.

So, everyone will get a "basic income allowance", granted from birth to death. This income will be calculated to meet the needs of food, clothes, and housing, for each individual. With this money, the individual will be able to choose what foods, clothes, etc.. he wants to buy. If he wants more than his basic income can afford, he can then apply for some type of work, create something to sell, fix a broken robot, etc..and either "the state" or other "people" can buy the good or service from him, giving him some extra cash.

So, there will be a "floor" for everybody. That financial floor will enable all to live well enough to not have to work. Those desiring more will have to be creative, or get that type of education that helps with the robot industry.

Everybody will be required to enroll in continuing education. Those with the highest and most degrees will be elevated on a point system that will enable them to be selected for ruling committees, and policy making boards of various kinds.

The smartest people will be the rulers, instead of the weirdest psychopaths of today.

How serendipitous. I was watching TED Talks today on this very subject.

It seems that it is believed that AI will develop in stages, and at some point the AI will reach an intelligence explosion, and at some point will move from being benign to becoming hazardous, if we have not prepared adequately.

a reply to: AMPTAH

Saw several TED Talks regarding the things you posted. This one really stuck with me.
This gentleman thinks a universal basic income is the answer to the world's problems and a way to fertilize the Golden Age.

I was debating this with a co-worker the other day. I do think we are getting to a point where AI / robots will be replacing a lot of service oriented jobs faster than those jobs can be created in other parts of the economy. I work in finance and we were discussing how much longer we have before most of our jobs were eliminated. He said five years. I think it will be about 10 years for my business. I am already starting to think of alternatives.

In our debate, I mused that what was messed up is that those who lose their jobs have no where to go. Most of us are in our 40s / 50s now. We've been in our business decades. We have no other skills or are so "rusty" and expensive that we would have a hard time finding a home in another corporate position. These are jobs where people regularly make several hundred grand per year. They will be gone like a light.

I think consumers also have to look in the mirror as well though. It isn't just corporations being greedy, but consumers being greedy as well. Consumer want lower prices and companies look for ways to eliminate costs to offer those prices. It creates a race to the bottom and no one really wins.

I've been trying to make a conscious effort to support smaller companies, buying locally, etc.

We didn't just go from horses to the Moon in less than 100 years without help.

I know some of you don't think we went to the moon, but we did.

Consider the jump that we had to take to do it.

I don't think we did it on our own.

I don't know what, but something is off about our tech advances.

If you think about it, none of this makes sense.
None of it.

a reply to: AMPTAH

The gov will provide the people with the money to buy the goods the robots produce.

...So, everyone will get a "basic income allowance", granted from birth to death. ...

lol. I doubt it. Not one government in the world has that kind of money.

The only way to generate the wealth needed to do it is to raise corporate taxes. A lot. Won't happen.

And if you're thinking the corporations need the lower and middle-class consumer markets, think again. They do not. Just 1% of the population can keep the global economy going and thriving. Looks to me like the plan involves turfing 90% of the planet's poorest people to the sidelines and relying on the top 10% to keep things going.

Q: Can the global economy thrive with only 10% (750 million) of the world’s current population of 7.5 billion purchasing, participating and contributing?

A: It already does, pretty much.

Q: How about 1% (75 million)?

A: I’d say so, but what do you think?



I think we need to identify and review our options realistically, and make our own choices while we still have the power to do so. The window is closing fast.