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originally posted by: mOjOm
a reply to: Alien Abduct
I can't deny that possibly some illegals voted. But I think the idea that 3 to 5 million of them did is ridiculous and dumb and impossible to believe without some evidence to prove it.
What Trump BELIEVES doesn't matter to one bit either. Because what matters is what the facts are and not what someone BELIEVES.
Your idea that biometrics or some other such idea tells me you're loyal minion ready to follow any would be dictator and what they BELIEVE rather than what is actually happening.
Because he has nothing but his fanciful and incorrect BELIEFS and no evidence of anything which means he's just crazy and you're following a crazy person.
This example parallels the reliability and vote rates in the CCES 2010-2012 panel survey. From this we conclude that measurement error almost certainly explains the observed voting rate among self-identified non-citizens in the CCES—as reported by Richman and his colleagues. We develop this in three steps.
Third, the panel shows clear evidence that the respondents who were identified as non-citizen voters by Richman et al. were misclassified. Clearly misclassified observations are the 20 respondents who reported being citizens in 2010 and non-citizens in 2012. Of those 20 respondents, a total of 3 respondents are classified by Catalist as having voted in 2010. Additionally, exactly 1 person is estimated to have voted in 2010, having been a non-citizen in 2010 and a citizen in 2012. (Note: This might not be an error as the person could have legally become a citizen in the intervening two years.) Both of these categories might include some citizens who are incorrectly classified as non-citizens in one of the waves.
Importantly, the group with the lowest likelihood of classification errors consists of those who reported being non-citizens in both 2010 and 2012. In this set, 0 percent of respondents cast valid votes. That is, among the 85 respondents who reported being non-citizens in 2010 and non-citizens in 2012, there are 0 valid voters for 2010.
Fourth, the probability that the observed voters in the non-voter category are in fact citizens who have been misclassified is nearly 1. The expected number of citizens who are identified as non-citizens is 19 (0.1 percent times 18,878). The sample contains 105 persons who are identified as non-citizens in 2012. Assuming that the vote rate among citizens is .7, then the expected number of citizen voters who are classified as non-citizens is 13. Hence, we expect in a sample of 105 non-citizen persons that there would be 13 people who are in fact citizen voters but misclassified as non-citizens. The actual number of observed is only 4 (3 in 2010 and 1 in 2012). This is much lower than the expected number. Hence the probability that these 4 cases are in fact citizens identified as non-citizens is nearly 1.
originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: buttmugger5000
The question is: would Trump have won the popular vote? More importantly: why does the President care?