posted on Jan, 22 2017 @ 01:16 PM
I don't think anyone expects every single foreign-based plant run by American companies will immediately close up and flock back to America and
suddenly provide middle-class jobs for Americans. Not even Trump thinks that and nobody has ever claimed that. It will definitely affect NEW plants
and already has. But that's just a superficial part of this complex issue. Economics is the driving factor here and insofar as the economics are
changing Trump may be able to ride the wave and pretend he's controlling it. The fact is that the ONLY reason American companies move overseas is
because it is cheaper to make stuff overseas and ship it than make it here. Now, there are a couple of major factors (and many minor) that may push
manufacturing back to the US. However, this may NOT mean more jobs.
1. Robotics. Labor costs offshore are cheaper. They used to be cheaper everywhere, even Europe, but that is no longer true. European and Japanese
workers make as much or more than Americans. The Chinese are still cheaper, but that gap is fading and will soon enter that "window" where it makes
less sense to "make and ship" rather than just make. Robotics is part of that. If you look at manufacturing techniques in automobiles, for example, it
takes far fewer workers to make cars than it used to because of automation. And as robotics continues to improve, this will become more of a factor.
Eventually "make and ship" will not make economic sense because the "ship" part of the equation will increase.
2. Regulation. The US has one of the highest business tax burdens in the world, this despite the usual rhetoric that companies "don't pay their fair
share!" That's just ignorant leftist rhetoric based on superficial data. Overall, American companies pay MORE taxes than they do overseas. Added to
that are regulations in every phase of a company's activities, from the EPA to the NLRB, from the FTC to the DOE the burden of federal regulations on
US business is immense. The cost is in the trillions. And here's an area where Trump can do some good. If he can ease the regulatory burden on US
companies, that could serve as an incentive to spur businesses to 're-re-locate' to the US. Companies do not move overseas just for the hell of it.
They move overseas because doing business in the USA sucks. If the government can be less sucky to business, that will 'incentivize' them to return.
Coupled with penalties for moving overseas, the combination could be very powerful.
These kinds of issues take time to trickle through an economy. That's why it's an eye-roller to see Presidents take credit or blame for the economy.
The factors that lead to a recession or a recovery take place in the PREVIOUS administration, maybe two. Clinton got credit for a booming economy
because of--Reagan. Bush got blamed for a recession because of Clinton. Hoover got the blame for the Great Depression when he had nothing at all to do
with it happening. You can blame Presidents for their reaction, but not for the causes. But voters aren't really thinking deeply about cause and
effect; they just look at where they are. If a person is out of work because of NAFTA, they're not going to remember Clinton's role in it. All they
know is that Bush is President, therefore it must be his fault.
So to point out that some factories already functioning a few miles from the US border are not going to close any time soon is not particularly
insightful nor does it really address the issues in play here. Nobody ever said they would. If you thought so, you misunderstood the issues.